La escuela de los momiosmomios.info
Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Degerfors IF v Hammarby IF

Inicio: 2026-09-20 14:30 UTC

Final: Degerfors IF 0–1 Hammarby IF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Degerfors IF (Local)

Predicción 11.54%8.66momio equitativo
EV +21.20%
Ventaja +2.02%
Kelly +2.23%
Crecimiento +0.473%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.29%11.57%11.55%13.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.508.288.0010.5015.38%12.08%12.50%9.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Hammarby IF (Visitante)

Predicción 70.55%1.42momio equitativo
EV -4.05%
Ventaja -2.98%
Kelly -11.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
68.76%70.59%70.47%73.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.241.311.301.3680.65%76.60%76.92%73.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 17.91%5.58momio equitativo
EV +5.30%
Ventaja +0.901%
Kelly +1.09%
Crecimiento +0.057%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.20%17.84%17.98%19.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.755.185.205.8821.05%19.32%19.23%17.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Degerfors IF (Local): 11.54%; Hammarby IF (Visitante): 70.55%; Empate: 17.91%. Para Degerfors IF (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 8.66. 12 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 10.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +21.20%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.29%EV +21.20%E +2.02%K +2.23%G +0.473%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.89%EV -6.87%E -5.21%K -21.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.82%EV +3.86%E +0.666%K +0.805%G +0.031%2.5%2026-09-20 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.29%EV +21.20%E +2.02%K +2.23%G +0.473%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.89%EV -6.87%E -5.21%K -21.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.82%EV +3.86%E +0.666%K +0.805%G +0.031%2.5%2026-09-20 13:59
ATG (SE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.29%EV +21.20%E +2.02%K +2.23%G +0.473%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.89%EV -6.87%E -5.21%K -21.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.82%EV +3.86%E +0.666%K +0.805%G +0.031%2.5%2026-09-20 13:59
Unibet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV +9.66%E +1.02%K +1.14%G +0.110%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -9.70%E -7.58%K -34.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -3.30%E -0.611%K -0.750%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 14:00
Casumo🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV +9.66%E +1.02%K +1.14%G +0.110%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -9.70%E -7.58%K -34.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -3.30%E -0.611%K -0.750%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV +9.66%E +1.02%K +1.14%G +0.110%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -9.70%E -7.58%K -34.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -3.30%E -0.611%K -0.750%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV +9.66%E +1.02%K +1.14%G +0.110%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -9.70%E -7.58%K -34.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -3.30%E -0.611%K -0.750%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 13:59
Grosvenor🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV +9.66%E +1.02%K +1.14%G +0.110%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -9.70%E -7.58%K -34.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -3.30%E -0.611%K -0.750%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 14:00
betPARX🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV +9.66%E +1.02%K +1.14%G +0.110%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.90%EV -9.70%E -7.58%K -34.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.28%EV -3.30%E -0.611%K -0.750%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-20 14:00
Coolbet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.68%EV +3.89%E +0.432%K +0.486%G +0.019%1.35I 74.07%NM 71.19%EV -4.76%E -3.52%K -13.59%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.13%EV -5.09%E -0.961%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 21:30
Tipico (DE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV +3.89%E +0.432%K +0.486%G +0.019%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.43%EV -10.40%E -8.19%K -38.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.35%EV -5.09%E -0.961%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV +3.89%E +0.432%K +0.486%G +0.019%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.94%EV -10.40%E -8.19%K -38.52%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.91%EV -8.67%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 14:00
Betsson🎯8.61I 11.61%NM 11.07%EV -0.617%E -0.072%K -0.081%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.73%EV -7.58%E -5.79%K -24.45%G +0.000%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.20%EV +5.30%E +0.901%K +1.09%G +0.057%5.0%2026-09-20 14:10
betfred_uk🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -1.89%E -0.222%K -0.252%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.29%E -6.37%K -27.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.46%E -2.09%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 14:09
Bet Right🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -1.89%E -0.222%K -0.252%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.29%E -6.37%K -27.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.46%E -2.09%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%EV -1.89%E -0.222%K -0.252%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.72%EV -9.70%E -7.58%K -34.63%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.48%EV -5.99%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 14:09
betano_uk🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -1.89%E -0.222%K -0.252%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.93%EV -8.99%E -6.97%K -31.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -10.46%E -2.09%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 14:22
BetRivers🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.62%EV -1.89%E -0.222%K -0.252%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.67%EV -11.11%E -8.82%K -42.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.71%EV -8.67%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 13:59
TABtouch🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.56%EV -1.89%E -0.222%K -0.252%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.83%EV -11.81%E -9.45%K -47.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -8.67%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-20 14:00
PMU (FR)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.47%EV -1.89%E -0.222%K -0.252%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.74%EV -12.52%E -10.10%K -52.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -10.46%E -2.09%K -2.62%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-20 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.47%EV -1.89%E -0.222%K -0.252%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.74%EV -12.52%E -10.10%K -52.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -10.46%E -2.09%K -2.62%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-20 14:00
Pinnacle🎯8.40I 11.90%NM 11.36%EV -3.04%E -0.362%K -0.411%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.67%EV -4.76%E -3.52%K -13.59%G +0.000%5.31I 18.83%NM 17.97%EV -4.91%E -0.925%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-20 14:19
NordicBet🎯8.30I 12.05%NM 11.25%EV -4.19%E -0.505%K -0.575%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.37%EV -8.99%E -6.97%K -31.00%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.38%EV +2.07%E +0.363%K +0.441%G +0.009%7.1%2026-09-20 14:09
SportsBet🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 11.10%EV -4.77%E -0.578%K -0.658%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.96%EV -8.99%E -6.97%K -31.00%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.95%EV -8.67%E -1.70%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 14:19
LeoVegas🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -4.76%E -3.52%K -13.59%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -5.99%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 14:24
Unibet (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.29%EV -5.46%E -4.08%K -16.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -5.99%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 14:04
DraftKings🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.29%EV -5.46%E -4.08%K -16.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -5.99%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 14:03
Betway🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -6.17%E -4.64%K -18.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -5.99%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 14:04
Bovada🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.20%EV -6.17%E -4.64%K -18.69%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.13%EV -7.78%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 14:09
BetMGM🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.66%EV -5.46%E -4.08%K -16.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -10.46%E -2.09%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 14:08
888sport🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.17%E -4.64%K -18.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -14.04%E -2.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 14:24
William Hill🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.17%E -4.64%K -18.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -14.04%E -2.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 14:24
888sport (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.17%E -4.64%K -18.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -14.04%E -2.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 14:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.17%E -4.64%K -18.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.20%EV -14.04%E -2.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 14:24
FanDuel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.19%EV -8.99%E -6.97%K -31.00%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -5.09%E -0.961%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 14:24
Bet Victor🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -8.29%E -6.37%K -27.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -10.46%E -2.09%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 14:29
Betr (AU)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.26%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.36%EV -9.70%E -7.58%K -34.63%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.38%EV -12.25%E -2.50%K -3.14%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-20 14:09
Paddy Power🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -7.66%E -0.957%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -11.81%E -9.45%K -47.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -10.46%E -2.09%K -2.62%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 14:19
LowVig.ag🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 12.02%EV -9.97%E -1.28%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.96%EV -5.46%E -4.08%K -16.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -6.88%E -1.32%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 14:09
BetOnline.ag🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 12.02%EV -9.97%E -1.28%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.96%EV -5.46%E -4.08%K -16.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -6.88%E -1.32%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 14:09
BetUS🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 12.02%EV -9.97%E -1.28%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.96%EV -5.46%E -4.08%K -16.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -6.88%E -1.32%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 14:09
BetAnything🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 12.02%EV -9.97%E -1.28%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.96%EV -5.46%E -4.08%K -16.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -6.88%E -1.32%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 14:09
GTbets🎯7.73I 12.94%NM 12.25%EV -10.77%E -1.39%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -4.05%E -2.98%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.23I 19.12%NM 18.11%EV -6.34%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 14:29
1xBet🎯7.59I 13.18%NM 12.52%EV -12.39%E -1.63%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.41%EV -4.76%E -3.52%K -13.59%G +0.000%5.57I 17.95%NM 17.07%EV -0.256%E -0.046%K -0.056%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-20 14:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.43%E -1.79%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -6.17%E -4.64%K -18.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -14.04%E -2.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 14:05
Coral🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.43%E -1.79%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -6.17%E -4.64%K -18.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -14.04%E -2.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 14:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.43%E -1.79%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -6.17%E -4.64%K -18.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -14.04%E -2.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 14:10
Neds🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -13.43%E -1.79%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -6.17%E -4.64%K -18.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -14.04%E -2.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-20 14:09
PlayUp🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -13.43%E -1.79%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.70%EV -9.70%E -7.58%K -34.63%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.24%EV -5.99%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 14:09
BoyleSports🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -13.43%E -1.79%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.99%E -6.97%K -31.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -10.46%E -2.09%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-14 19:21
Sky Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -13.43%E -1.79%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.27%EV -8.99%E -6.97%K -31.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.81%EV -14.94%E -3.15%K -3.98%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 14:19
Betclic (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -19.20%E -2.74%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.21%EV -8.99%E -6.97%K -31.00%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.04%EV -11.36%E -2.29%K -2.88%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 14:04
Unibet (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.52%EV -19.20%E -2.74%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 69.58%EV -11.11%E -8.82%K -42.72%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.89%EV -12.25%E -2.50%K -3.14%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-20 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV -22.09%E -3.27%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 69.38%EV -7.58%E -5.79%K -24.45%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -5.09%E -0.961%K -1.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 14:05
Winamax (FR)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.72%EV -24.97%E -3.84%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.13%EV -8.99%E -6.97%K -31.00%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.15%EV -6.88%E -1.32%K -1.64%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-20 14:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎9.60I 10.42%NM 10.35%1.37I 72.99%NM 72.52%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.13%0.7%2026-09-20 14:19
Matchbook◎9.80I 10.20%NM 10.13%1.37I 72.99%NM 72.46%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.41%0.7%2026-09-20 14:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎9.60I 10.42%NM 10.29%1.37I 72.99%NM 72.08%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.63%1.3%2026-09-20 14:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎9.60I 10.42%NM 10.29%1.37I 72.99%NM 72.08%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.63%1.3%2026-09-20 14:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎9.60I 10.42%NM 10.29%1.37I 72.99%NM 72.08%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.63%1.3%2026-09-20 14:14