Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AIK v Västerås SK

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 13:00 UTC

Final: AIK 1–4 Västerås SK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AIK (Local)

Prediction 46.51%2.15fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.661%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.10%46.63%46.48%50.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.992.002.1254.35%50.23%50.00%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Västerås SK (Visit)

Prediction 27.22%3.67fair odd
EV +6.17%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +2.13%
Growth +0.131%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.68%27.06%27.41%28.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.403.393.9032.26%29.42%29.50%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.27%3.81fair odd
EV +2.45%
Edge +0.628%
Kelly +0.844%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.68%26.31%26.11%28.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.443.453.9032.26%29.09%28.99%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AIK (Local): 46.51%; Västerås SK (Visit): 27.22%; Draw: 26.27%. For Västerås SK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.67. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -11.63%E -6.12%K -12.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.68%EV +6.17%E +1.58%K +2.13%G +0.131%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.68%EV +2.45%E +0.628%K +0.844%G +0.021%3.9%2026-09-07 19:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.88%EV -1.40%E -0.661%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%EV +2.08%E +0.556%K +0.758%G +0.016%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.19%EV -9.37%E -2.72%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-09 16:36
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.88%EV -1.40%E -0.661%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%EV +2.08%E +0.556%K +0.758%G +0.016%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.19%EV -9.37%E -2.72%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-09 16:36
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.88%EV -1.40%E -0.661%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%EV +2.08%E +0.556%K +0.758%G +0.016%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.19%EV -9.37%E -2.72%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-09 16:36
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.27%EV -5.12%E -2.51%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.769%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.52%EV -9.90%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 11:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -6.05%E -3.00%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.769%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -12.00%E -3.58%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 15:51
BetOnline.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -6.05%E -3.00%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.769%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -12.00%E -3.58%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 15:51
BetUS🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.21%EV -6.05%E -3.00%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -2.00%E -0.556%K -0.769%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -12.00%E -3.58%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 15:51
Bovada🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.98%EV -5.12%E -2.51%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -3.36%E -0.947%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -10.69%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 11:49
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -3.36%E -0.947%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -14.63%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 16:36
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -3.36%E -0.947%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -14.63%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 16:35
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -3.36%E -0.947%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -14.63%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 16:35
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -3.36%E -0.947%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -14.63%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 16:36
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -3.36%E -0.947%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -14.63%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 16:36
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -3.36%E -0.947%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -14.63%E -4.50%K -6.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 16:35
1xBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.15%EV -5.59%E -2.75%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.08%EV -9.11%E -2.63%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 17:31
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.98%E -3.49%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -10.69%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 11:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -11.63%E -6.12%K -12.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -4.72%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 19:40
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.70%EV -4.66%E -2.27%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.08%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -9.37%E -2.72%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 13:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -6.98%E -3.49%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -7.44%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -1.49%E -0.398%K -0.543%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 15:46
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.23%EV -6.05%E -3.00%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -7.44%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -6.75%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 07:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.98%E -3.49%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.44%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 11:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.98%E -3.49%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.44%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 15:50
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -9.31%E -4.77%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -7.44%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -2.81%E -0.758%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-09 15:49
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.98%E -3.49%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.44%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-08 15:20
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.36%EV -8.38%E -4.25%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -7.44%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -17.25%E -5.48%K -8.03%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 16:35
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.15%EV -8.38%E -4.25%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.16%EV -7.44%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -18.57%E -5.99%K -8.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-09 16:36
GTbets🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.50%EV -5.59%E -2.75%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.93%EV -7.99%E -2.36%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.58%EV -3.07%E -0.832%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 07:45
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -6.05%E -3.00%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 16:36
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -6.05%E -3.00%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 16:39
SportsBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.96%EV -8.84%E -4.51%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-09 15:51
LiveScore Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.10%EV -8.84%E -4.51%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.39%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -18.57%E -5.99%K -8.84%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-09 16:36
Virgin Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.10%EV -8.84%E -4.51%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.39%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -18.57%E -5.99%K -8.84%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-09 16:36
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.23%EV -9.31%E -4.77%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.33%EV -8.81%E -2.63%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.45%EV -18.57%E -5.99%K -8.84%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-09 16:36
Bet Right🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.76%EV -8.84%E -4.51%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.17%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 15:45
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -9.31%E -4.77%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.17%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-07 17:15
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -9.31%E -4.77%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.17%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -5.43%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 15:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.66%EV -10.24%E -5.30%K -11.01%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.46%EV -10.71%E -3.27%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.88%EV -8.59%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 13:05
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.63%EV -7.91%E -4.00%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -10.69%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-09 16:36
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -9.31%E -4.77%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -10.69%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-08 15:20
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -9.31%E -4.77%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -10.69%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-08 15:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -9.31%E -4.77%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -10.69%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-08 15:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -9.31%E -4.77%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -10.69%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-08 15:20
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -11.17%E -5.85%K -12.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.53%E -3.55%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-09 15:51
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -6.98%E -3.49%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -12.89%E -4.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 15:29
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -6.98%E -3.49%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -12.89%E -4.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 15:31
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -6.98%E -3.49%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -12.89%E -4.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 13:35
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -6.98%E -3.49%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -12.89%E -4.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -6.98%E -3.49%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -12.89%E -4.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -6.98%E -3.49%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -12.89%E -4.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.06%E -2.30%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-09 13:35
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.85%EV -13.03%E -6.97%K -14.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -12.89%E -4.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.77%EV -10.69%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-08 08:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 47.26%EV -14.42%E -7.84%K -17.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.17%EV -12.89%E -4.03%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.57%EV -10.69%E -3.14%K -4.45%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-08 13:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.50%EV -10.70%E -5.57%K -11.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -14.25%E -4.52%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.15%EV -6.75%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-08 11:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.22%EV -11.63%E -6.12%K -12.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.33%EV -15.61%E -5.04%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.45%EV -9.37%E -2.72%K -3.83%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-08 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.06I 48.54%NM 46.79%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.15%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.05%3.7%2026-09-09 14:46
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 46.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%4.1%2026-09-09 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 46.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%4.1%2026-09-09 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 46.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%4.1%2026-09-09 14:20
Smarkets◎2.04I 49.02%NM 46.51%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.50%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.99%5.4%2026-09-09 13:21