Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St Mirren v St Johnstone

Inicio: 2026-08-08 14:02 UTC

Final: St Mirren 1–0 St Johnstone

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St Mirren (Local)

Predicción 36.55%2.74momio equitativo
EV -1.32%
Ventaja -0.487%
Kelly -0.774%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.61%36.77%36.53%39.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.282.502.512.7043.86%39.98%39.84%37.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

St Johnstone (Visitante)

Predicción 35.14%2.85momio equitativo
EV +1.91%
Ventaja +0.658%
Kelly +1.00%
Crecimiento +0.019%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.33%34.92%35.13%36.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.572.702.662.9038.91%37.09%37.59%34.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.31%3.53momio equitativo
EV -0.916%
Ventaja -0.262%
Kelly -0.366%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.27%28.32%28.34%29.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.263.253.5032.79%30.71%30.77%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: St Mirren (Local): 36.55%; St Johnstone (Visitante): 35.14%; Empate: 28.31%. Para St Johnstone (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.85. 10 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.90, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.91%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.68%EV -11.18%E -4.60%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV +1.91%E +0.658%K +1.00%G +0.019%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 13:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.68%EV -11.18%E -4.60%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.41%EV +1.91%E +0.658%K +1.00%G +0.019%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 13:55
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.57%EV -16.67%E -7.31%K -13.02%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.33%EV +1.20%E +0.418%K +0.640%G +0.008%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.10%EV -12.24%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 13:34
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.60%EV -13.01%E -5.47%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV +0.150%E +0.053%K +0.081%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -10.82%E -3.44%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:55
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.60%EV -13.01%E -5.47%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV +0.150%E +0.053%K +0.081%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -10.82%E -3.44%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:54
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.60%EV -13.01%E -5.47%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV +0.150%E +0.053%K +0.081%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -10.82%E -3.44%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:54
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.60%EV -13.01%E -5.47%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV +0.150%E +0.053%K +0.081%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -10.82%E -3.44%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:55
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.60%EV -13.01%E -5.47%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV +0.150%E +0.053%K +0.081%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -10.82%E -3.44%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.60%EV -13.01%E -5.47%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV +0.150%E +0.053%K +0.081%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -10.82%E -3.44%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.60%EV -13.01%E -5.47%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV +0.150%E +0.053%K +0.081%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -10.82%E -3.44%K -5.03%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:55
Pinnacle🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.53%EV -3.14%E -1.19%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.08%EV -3.01%E -1.09%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.39%EV -3.46%E -1.02%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-08 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.46%EV -3.14%E -1.19%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.13%EV -3.36%E -1.22%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.41%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 13:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.46%EV -3.14%E -1.19%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.13%EV -3.36%E -1.22%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.41%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-08 13:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.58%EV -15.20%E -6.55%K -11.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -3.36%E -1.22%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -12.24%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-08 13:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.60%EV -15.94%E -6.93%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.29%EV -3.36%E -1.22%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -13.66%E -4.48%K -6.66%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 13:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.60%EV -15.94%E -6.93%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.29%EV -3.36%E -1.22%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -13.66%E -4.48%K -6.66%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 13:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.60%EV -15.94%E -6.93%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.29%EV -3.36%E -1.22%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -13.66%E -4.48%K -6.66%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.43%EV -6.43%E -2.51%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.42%EV -4.77%E -1.76%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -9.41%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 14:00
1xBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.61%EV -1.32%E -0.487%K -0.774%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.61%EV -5.12%E -1.90%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%EV -5.45%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 13:49
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -5.12%E -1.90%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -12.24%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 13:50
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -5.12%E -1.90%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -12.24%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 13:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -5.12%E -1.90%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -12.24%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 13:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -5.12%E -1.90%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -12.24%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 13:49
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -15.94%E -6.93%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -5.12%E -1.90%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -6.58%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 13:44
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -4.24%E -1.62%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -5.82%E -2.17%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -5.16%E -1.54%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 13:50
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -4.24%E -1.62%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -5.82%E -2.17%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -5.16%E -1.54%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 13:50
Bovada🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 36.66%EV -8.26%E -3.29%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.59%EV -6.53%E -2.45%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.75%EV -9.41%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 13:58
BetUS🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 36.66%EV -8.26%E -3.29%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.59%EV -6.53%E -2.45%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.75%EV -9.41%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 13:59
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -4.97%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -6.88%E -2.60%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -0.916%E -0.262%K -0.366%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 13:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.80%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -6.88%E -2.60%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 13:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.80%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -6.88%E -2.60%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 13:59
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -4.97%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -6.88%E -2.60%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.58%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:54
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -4.97%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -6.88%E -2.60%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 14:00
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.97%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.12%EV -6.88%E -2.60%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -9.41%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -6.88%E -2.60%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.41%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 13:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -14.11%E -6.00%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -6.88%E -2.60%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -7.99%E -2.46%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 13:54
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.23%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.39%EV -7.58%E -2.88%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 13:59
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.97%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -7.93%E -3.03%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 13:59
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.97%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -7.93%E -3.03%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 13:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -4.97%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -7.93%E -3.03%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 13:55
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -6.80%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.74%EV -7.93%E -3.03%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 13:59
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -4.97%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -7.93%E -3.03%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -9.41%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 13:59
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -7.93%E -3.03%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.58%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -4.97%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 13:54
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -4.97%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 13:55
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -4.97%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -3.75%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 13:58
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -4.97%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.02%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -5.16%E -1.54%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-08 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -4.97%E -1.91%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -6.58%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 14:00
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -6.80%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -5.16%E -1.54%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 13:59
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -6.80%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.58%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:55
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -6.80%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.58%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:54
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.58%E -1.99%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 36.83%EV -10.09%E -4.10%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.85%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -9.41%E -2.94%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 14:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.22%EV -13.38%E -5.64%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.32%EV -9.69%E -3.77%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.46%EV -12.24%E -3.95%K -5.83%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-08 13:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.82%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.31%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.86%0.4%2026-08-08 14:00
Smarkets◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.99%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%0.7%2026-08-08 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.99%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%0.7%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.99%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%0.7%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.99%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79%0.7%2026-08-08 13:55
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.67%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.62%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70%1.0%2026-08-08 14:00