Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Mirren v Motherwell

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 13:59 UTC

Final: St Mirren 3–3 Motherwell

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Mirren (Local)

Prediction 37.20%2.69fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.826%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.27%37.27%37.16%39.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.492.502.6342.55%40.18%40.00%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Motherwell (Visit)

Prediction 34.57%2.89fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.90%34.61%34.58%36.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.682.702.8040.00%37.35%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.23%3.54fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.337%
Kelly -0.472%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.48%28.12%28.26%28.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.303.303.5032.79%30.26%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Mirren (Local): 37.20%; Motherwell (Visit): 34.57%; Draw: 28.23%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -1.18%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.85%EV -2.17%E -0.826%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.73%EV -3.55%E -1.27%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.42%EV -3.72%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-30 13:30
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -3.29%E -1.26%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.02%EV -8.39%E -3.17%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%EV -1.18%E -0.337%K -0.472%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-30 13:50
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.29%E -1.26%K -2.06%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -9.43%E -3.60%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 13:50
1xBet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.55%EV -4.78%E -1.87%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.83%EV -4.59%E -1.66%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.62%EV -1.75%E -0.502%K -0.704%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-30 13:55
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.15%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 13:15
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.90%EV -5.15%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.59%EV -5.97%E -2.20%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 13:15
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.90%EV -5.15%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.59%EV -5.97%E -2.20%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 13:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.15%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -8.39%E -3.17%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 13:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.15%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -8.39%E -3.17%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 13:50
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -5.15%E -2.02%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -10.12%E -3.89%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -5.42%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 13:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.86%EV -5.89%E -2.33%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.60%EV -7.96%E -2.44%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 13:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-30 13:25
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.82%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-30 13:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 13:20
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 13:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 13:20
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 13:34
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 13:54
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 13:45
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -4.93%E -1.79%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 13:18
Svenska Spel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -5.42%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 13:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.42%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -5.42%E -1.62%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 13:30
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 13:15
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 13:20
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.93%EV -8.39%E -3.17%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 13:25
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 13:50
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 13:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 13:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 13:50
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.91%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.69%EV -8.05%E -3.02%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -8.24%E -2.54%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 13:55
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -8.39%E -3.17%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -8.24%E -2.54%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 13:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -7.01%E -2.80%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -10.12%E -3.89%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 13:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.05%EV -7.75%E -3.13%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -8.39%E -3.17%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.24%E -2.54%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 13:30
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.05%EV -7.75%E -3.13%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -8.39%E -3.17%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.24%E -2.54%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 13:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.05%EV -7.75%E -3.13%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -8.39%E -3.17%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.24%E -2.54%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 13:30
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.05%EV -7.75%E -3.13%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -8.39%E -3.17%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.24%E -2.54%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 13:30
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.05%EV -7.75%E -3.13%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -8.39%E -3.17%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.24%E -2.54%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 13:30
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.05%EV -7.75%E -3.13%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -8.39%E -3.17%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.24%E -2.54%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 13:30
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.05%EV -7.75%E -3.13%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -8.39%E -3.17%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -8.24%E -2.54%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 13:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.24%EV -8.50%E -3.45%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.09%EV -4.59%E -1.66%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 13:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.24%EV -8.50%E -3.45%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.09%EV -4.59%E -1.66%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 13:55
BetUS🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.24%EV -8.50%E -3.45%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.09%EV -4.59%E -1.66%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 13:55
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -8.87%E -3.62%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -1.18%E -0.337%K -0.472%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-30 13:20
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -8.87%E -3.62%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 13:20
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -8.87%E -3.62%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -6.66%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 13:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.27%EV -9.61%E -3.96%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.43%EV -9.08%E -3.45%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 13:30
BetRivers🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.12%EV -9.61%E -3.96%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.69%EV -10.12%E -3.89%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-30 13:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 36.46%EV -9.98%E -4.13%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.60%EV -11.85%E -4.65%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -13.89%E -4.55%K -6.77%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-30 13:21
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.73%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -13.58%E -5.43%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -4.00%E -1.18%K -1.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 13:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -10.73%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -10.12%E -3.89%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -9.65%E -3.02%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-30 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.73%E -4.47%K -7.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38%EV -10.12%E -3.89%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.38%EV -11.06%E -3.51%K -5.15%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 13:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.19%EV -11.47%E -4.82%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.71%EV -11.85%E -4.65%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -11.06%E -3.51%K -5.15%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 13:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.19%EV -11.47%E -4.82%K -8.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.71%EV -11.85%E -4.65%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -11.06%E -3.51%K -5.15%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 13:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -12.59%E -5.36%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -3.21%E -1.15%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -6.83%E -2.07%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 13:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.68I 37.31%NM 37.18%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.36%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.47%0.4%2026-08-30 13:55
Matchbook2.68I 37.31%NM 37.18%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.36%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.47%0.4%2026-08-30 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.66I 37.59%NM 37.35%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-08-30 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.66I 37.59%NM 37.35%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-08-30 13:55
Smarkets2.66I 37.59%NM 37.35%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.26%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.39%0.6%2026-08-30 13:55
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.67%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.62%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70%1.0%2026-08-30 13:50