Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Mirren v Celtic

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 19:00 UTC

Final: St Mirren 1–2 Celtic

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St Mirren (Local)

Prediction 16.39%6.10fair odd
EV +10.64%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +1.85%
Growth +0.197%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.74%16.29%16.51%17.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.895.906.7520.00%16.96%16.95%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celtic (Visit)

Prediction 63.12%1.58fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -6.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.74%63.16%63.00%65.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.451.451.5372.99%68.77%68.97%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.49%4.88fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -0.562%
Kelly -0.712%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.72%20.55%20.49%22.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.154.484.504.7524.10%22.32%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St Mirren (Local): 16.39%; Celtic (Visit): 63.12%; Draw: 20.49%. For St Mirren (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.10. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV +10.64%E +1.58%K +1.85%G +0.197%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.67%EV -9.74%E -6.81%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 10:55
Svenska Spel🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV +10.64%E +1.58%K +1.85%G +0.197%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.67%EV -9.74%E -6.81%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 10:50
Tipico (DE)🎯6.70I 14.93%NM 13.74%EV +9.82%E +1.47%K +1.72%G +0.169%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.84%EV -10.37%E -7.30%K -24.70%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%EV -11.89%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 14:20
betfred_uk🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 09:25
Unibet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:55
Unibet (NL)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:55
TABtouch🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:55
Grosvenor🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:50
Casumo🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:50
betPARX🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:55
Coolbet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.74%EV -7.22%E -4.91%K -15.35%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -2.67%E -0.562%K -0.712%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 05:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.05%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -2.67%E -0.562%K -0.712%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 05:24
Betr (AU)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.91%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.70%E -0.786%K -0.999%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 05:30
SportsBet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.99%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.72%EV -7.22%E -4.91%K -15.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 18:09
PMU (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.84%EV -11.64%E -8.31%K -29.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 10:55
BetRivers🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.39%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.17%EV -12.90%E -9.35%K -33.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-04 10:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.36%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.02%EV -12.90%E -9.35%K -33.94%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.63%EV -10.87%E -2.50%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-04 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.55%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 64.80%EV -13.53%E -9.87%K -36.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.65%EV -11.89%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 10:50
LiveScore Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.55%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 64.80%EV -13.53%E -9.87%K -36.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.65%EV -11.89%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 10:55
1xBet🎯6.05I 16.53%NM 15.48%EV -0.830%E -0.137%K -0.164%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.71%EV -7.22%E -4.91%K -15.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.81%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 05:05
Marathon Bet🎯6.05I 16.53%NM 15.41%EV -0.830%E -0.137%K -0.164%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.87%EV -7.85%E -5.38%K -17.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.72%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 05:05
Bet Right🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 05:50
FanDuel🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 19:02
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 19:00
PlayUp🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -11.89%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 05:05
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.61%EV -3.29%E -0.557%K -0.671%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.72%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -14.96%E -3.61%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 05:05
NordicBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.61%EV -3.29%E -0.557%K -0.671%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.72%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -14.96%E -3.61%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 05:05
Fanatics🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.43%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -2.67%E -0.562%K -0.712%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 07:50
LeoVegas🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 09:30
Unibet (UK)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 09:28
betano_uk🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 05:09
Bet Victor🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 05:09
Sky Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.76%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -13.94%E -3.32%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-03 18:10
Pinnacle🎯5.53I 18.08%NM 17.11%EV -9.35%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.67%EV -4.69%E -3.11%K -9.20%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.22%EV -4.10%E -0.877%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 05:05
Coral🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -3.43%E -2.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 09:29
Neds🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 09:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 09:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 09:55
888sport🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -11.28%E -2.60%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 06:05
William Hill🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -11.28%E -2.60%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 06:05
888sport (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -11.28%E -2.60%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 06:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -11.28%E -2.60%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 06:05
Unibet (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.37%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.40%EV -10.37%E -7.30%K -24.70%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.23%EV -8.82%E -1.98%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 09:30
Codere (IT)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -11.48%E -2.13%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.41%EV -7.85%E -5.38%K -17.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-04 09:35
NetBet (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.42%EV -11.48%E -2.13%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 62.46%EV -10.37%E -7.30%K -24.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -13.94%E -3.32%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-04 09:35
Bovada🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.44%EV -13.12%E -2.48%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.03%EV -5.95%E -4.00%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 05:01
BetOnline.ag🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -13.12%E -2.48%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.74%EV -5.95%E -4.00%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 06:04
LowVig.ag🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -13.12%E -2.48%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.74%EV -5.95%E -4.00%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 06:04
BetUS🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -13.12%E -2.48%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.74%EV -5.95%E -4.00%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 06:10
Betway🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.44%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -2.67%E -0.562%K -0.712%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 06:10
BetMGM🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.04%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 09:30
DraftKings🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.04%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 05:05
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -18.04%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 12:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.47%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-09-04 14:00
Smarkets7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.20%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.20%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.20%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-09-04 14:05
Kalshi6.67I 14.99%NM 14.85%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.33%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.81%0.9%2026-09-04 12:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.60I 15.15%NM 14.89%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.64%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.47%1.8%2026-09-04 14:05