Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St Mirren v Celtic

Inicio: 2026-09-05 19:00 UTC

Final: St Mirren 1–2 Celtic

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St Mirren (Local)

Predicción 16.39%6.10momio equitativo
EV +10.64%
Ventaja +1.58%
Kelly +1.85%
Crecimiento +0.197%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.74%16.29%16.51%17.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.895.906.7520.00%16.96%16.95%14.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Celtic (Visitante)

Predicción 63.12%1.58momio equitativo
EV -3.43%
Ventaja -2.24%
Kelly -6.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
61.74%63.16%63.00%65.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.371.451.451.5372.99%68.77%68.97%65.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 20.49%4.88momio equitativo
EV -2.67%
Ventaja -0.562%
Kelly -0.712%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.72%20.55%20.49%22.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.154.484.504.7524.10%22.32%22.22%21.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: St Mirren (Local): 16.39%; Celtic (Visitante): 63.12%; Empate: 20.49%. Para St Mirren (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.10. 18 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +10.64%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV +10.64%E +1.58%K +1.85%G +0.197%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.67%EV -9.74%E -6.81%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 10:55
Svenska Spel🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV +10.64%E +1.58%K +1.85%G +0.197%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.67%EV -9.74%E -6.81%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 10:50
Tipico (DE)🎯6.70I 14.93%NM 13.74%EV +9.82%E +1.47%K +1.72%G +0.169%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.84%EV -10.37%E -7.30%K -24.70%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%EV -11.89%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 14:20
betfred_uk🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 09:25
Unibet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:55
Unibet (NL)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:55
TABtouch🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:55
Grosvenor🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:50
Casumo🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:50
betPARX🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV +6.55%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.35%EV -11.00%E -7.80%K -26.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 10:55
Coolbet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.23%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.74%EV -7.22%E -4.91%K -15.35%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -2.67%E -0.562%K -0.712%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 05:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.05%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -2.67%E -0.562%K -0.712%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 05:24
Betr (AU)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.91%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -3.70%E -0.786%K -0.999%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 05:30
SportsBet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.99%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.72%EV -7.22%E -4.91%K -15.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 18:09
PMU (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.52%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.84%EV -11.64%E -8.31%K -29.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-04 10:55
BetRivers🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.39%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.17%EV -12.90%E -9.35%K -33.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-04 10:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.36%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.466%G +0.011%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.02%EV -12.90%E -9.35%K -33.94%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.63%EV -10.87%E -2.50%K -3.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-04 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.55%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 64.80%EV -13.53%E -9.87%K -36.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.65%EV -11.89%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 10:50
LiveScore Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.55%EV -0.010%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 64.80%EV -13.53%E -9.87%K -36.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.65%EV -11.89%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 10:55
1xBet🎯6.05I 16.53%NM 15.48%EV -0.830%E -0.137%K -0.164%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.71%EV -7.22%E -4.91%K -15.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.81%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 05:05
Marathon Bet🎯6.05I 16.53%NM 15.41%EV -0.830%E -0.137%K -0.164%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.87%EV -7.85%E -5.38%K -17.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.72%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 05:05
Bet Right🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 05:50
FanDuel🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 19:02
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-03 19:00
PlayUp🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -1.65%E -0.275%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -8.48%E -5.85%K -18.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -11.89%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 05:05
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.61%EV -3.29%E -0.557%K -0.671%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.72%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -14.96%E -3.61%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 05:05
NordicBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.61%EV -3.29%E -0.557%K -0.671%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.72%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.19%EV -14.96%E -3.61%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 05:05
Fanatics🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.43%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -2.67%E -0.562%K -0.712%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 07:50
LeoVegas🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 09:30
Unibet (UK)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -6.59%E -4.45%K -13.72%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 09:28
betano_uk🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 05:09
Bet Victor🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 05:09
Sky Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -5.75%E -1.000%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.76%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -13.94%E -3.32%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-03 18:10
Pinnacle🎯5.53I 18.08%NM 17.11%EV -9.35%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.67%EV -4.69%E -3.11%K -9.20%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.22%EV -4.10%E -0.877%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-04 05:05
Coral🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -3.43%E -2.24%K -6.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 09:29
Neds🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 09:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 09:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 09:55
888sport🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -11.28%E -2.60%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 06:05
William Hill🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -11.28%E -2.60%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 06:05
888sport (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -11.28%E -2.60%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 06:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -11.28%E -2.60%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 06:05
Unibet (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.37%EV -9.85%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.40%EV -10.37%E -7.30%K -24.70%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.23%EV -8.82%E -1.98%K -2.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 09:30
Codere (IT)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.88%EV -11.48%E -2.13%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.41%EV -7.85%E -5.38%K -17.06%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-04 09:35
NetBet (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.42%EV -11.48%E -2.13%K -2.61%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 62.46%EV -10.37%E -7.30%K -24.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -13.94%E -3.32%K -4.36%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-04 09:35
Bovada🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.44%EV -13.12%E -2.48%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.03%EV -5.95%E -4.00%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.54%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 05:01
BetOnline.ag🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -13.12%E -2.48%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.74%EV -5.95%E -4.00%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 06:04
LowVig.ag🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -13.12%E -2.48%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.74%EV -5.95%E -4.00%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 06:04
BetUS🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.36%EV -13.12%E -2.48%K -3.05%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.74%EV -5.95%E -4.00%K -12.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -9.84%E -2.24%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 06:10
Betway🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.44%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -2.67%E -0.562%K -0.712%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 06:10
BetMGM🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.04%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 09:30
DraftKings🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -13.94%E -2.66%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.04%EV -5.32%E -3.55%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -5.74%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 05:05
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -18.04%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.19%EV -9.11%E -6.33%K -20.71%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -7.79%E -1.73%K -2.23%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 12:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.47%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-09-04 14:00
Smarkets◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.20%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.20%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-09-04 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.16%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.20%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-09-04 14:05
Kalshi◎6.67I 14.99%NM 14.85%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.33%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.81%0.9%2026-09-04 12:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.60I 15.15%NM 14.89%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.64%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.47%1.8%2026-09-04 14:05