Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hibernian v Hearts

Kickoff: 2026-09-03 18:48 UTC

Final: Hibernian 1–3 Hearts

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hibernian (Local)

Prediction 41.37%2.42fair odd
EV +1.35%
Edge +0.549%
Kelly +0.928%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.90%41.20%41.45%42.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.292.252.4547.62%43.69%44.44%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hearts (Visit)

Prediction 31.97%3.13fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.604%
Kelly -0.896%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.81%32.17%31.97%35.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.842.883.0739.22%35.26%34.72%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.67%3.75fair odd
EV +0.262%
Edge +0.070%
Kelly +0.095%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.10%26.62%26.58%27.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.473.453.7630.77%28.85%28.99%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hibernian (Local): 41.37%; Hearts (Visit): 31.97%; Draw: 26.67%. For Hibernian (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.42. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.20%EV +1.35%E +0.549%K +0.928%G +0.012%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -13.68%E -5.07%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -8.00%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 18:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.20%EV +1.35%E +0.549%K +0.928%G +0.012%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -13.68%E -5.07%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -8.00%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 18:45
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.32%EV -1.55%E -0.651%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.15%EV -10.17%E -3.62%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.52%EV +0.262%E +0.070%K +0.095%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 18:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -1.55%E -0.651%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -16.88%E -6.49%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -12.00%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 18:45
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -2.79%E -1.19%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -8.89%E -3.12%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -4.00%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 18:14
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.23%EV -2.79%E -1.19%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.55%EV -16.88%E -6.49%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.00%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-03 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.97%EV -2.79%E -1.19%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -18.48%E -7.25%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -12.00%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-03 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.01%EV -3.62%E -1.55%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.73%EV -18.48%E -7.25%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -13.34%E -4.10%K -5.93%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.01%EV -3.62%E -1.55%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.73%EV -18.48%E -7.25%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -13.34%E -4.10%K -5.93%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 18:45
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.92%EV -4.45%E -1.92%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.54%EV -1.85%E -0.604%K -0.896%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -2.67%E -0.732%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-03 18:44
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -10.49%E -3.75%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -10.49%E -3.75%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -1.34%E -0.361%K -0.495%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 18:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -10.49%E -3.75%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -1.34%E -0.361%K -0.495%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 18:25
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 18:39
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 18:40
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 17:50
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -12.09%E -4.39%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.00%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -12.09%E -4.39%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 18:45
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.00%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 18:10
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.00%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 18:45
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -8.00%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 18:34
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -5.69%E -1.93%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -5.69%E -1.93%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 18:10
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:35
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:33
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.73%EV -6.01%E -2.04%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.81%EV -7.20%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 18:10
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 18:10
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 18:09
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -7.93%E -2.75%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:44
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -7.93%E -2.75%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -7.93%E -2.75%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -7.93%E -2.75%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:44
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.49%E -3.75%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 18:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -8.17%E -3.68%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -2.49%E -0.818%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -8.17%E -3.68%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -2.49%E -0.818%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 18:20
BetUS🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -8.17%E -3.68%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -2.49%E -0.818%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 18:20
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -8.17%E -3.68%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -5.69%E -1.93%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 17:55
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -8.17%E -3.68%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -5.69%E -1.93%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 17:55
Bovada🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 41.76%EV -8.58%E -3.88%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.50%EV -6.33%E -2.16%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.00%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 18:35
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.00%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 18:35
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 18:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.56%EV -9.82%E -4.51%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -8.89%E -3.12%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-03 18:25
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -11.06%E -5.15%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -12.09%E -4.39%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -4.00%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 18:44
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.94%EV -12.31%E -5.80%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.53%EV -9.85%E -3.49%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.54%EV -10.67%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 18:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%EV -13.13%E -6.25%K -11.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.04%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -8.00%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-03 18:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.89%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.16%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95%0.3%2026-09-03 18:45
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.69%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-09-03 18:45
Smarkets2.36I 42.37%NM 41.89%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%1.1%2026-09-03 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.89%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%1.1%2026-09-03 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.48%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68%1.3%2026-09-03 18:45
Kalshi2.33I 42.92%NM 42.08%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-09-03 18:45