Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hibernian v Hearts

Inicio: 2026-09-03 18:48 UTC

Final: Hibernian 1–3 Hearts

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hibernian (Local)

Predicción 41.37%2.42momio equitativo
EV +1.35%
Ventaja +0.549%
Kelly +0.928%
Crecimiento +0.012%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.90%41.20%41.45%42.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.292.252.4547.62%43.69%44.44%40.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Hearts (Visitante)

Predicción 31.97%3.13momio equitativo
EV -1.85%
Ventaja -0.604%
Kelly -0.896%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.07

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.81%32.17%31.97%35.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.552.842.883.0739.22%35.26%34.72%32.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.67%3.75momio equitativo
EV +0.262%
Ventaja +0.070%
Kelly +0.095%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.10%26.62%26.58%27.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.473.453.7630.77%28.85%28.99%26.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Hibernian (Local): 41.37%; Hearts (Visitante): 31.97%; Empate: 26.67%. Para Hibernian (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.42. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.45, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.35%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.20%EV +1.35%E +0.549%K +0.928%G +0.012%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -13.68%E -5.07%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -8.00%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 18:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.20%EV +1.35%E +0.549%K +0.928%G +0.012%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -13.68%E -5.07%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -8.00%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 18:45
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.90%EV +0.518%E +0.213%K +0.362%G +0.002%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.02%EV -15.92%E -6.05%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.32%EV -1.55%E -0.651%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.15%EV -10.17%E -3.62%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.52%EV +0.262%E +0.070%K +0.095%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 18:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -1.55%E -0.651%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -16.88%E -6.49%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -12.00%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-03 18:45
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -2.79%E -1.19%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -8.89%E -3.12%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -4.00%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-03 18:14
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.23%EV -2.79%E -1.19%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.55%EV -16.88%E -6.49%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -12.00%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-03 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.97%EV -2.79%E -1.19%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.99%EV -18.48%E -7.25%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -12.00%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-03 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.01%EV -3.62%E -1.55%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.73%EV -18.48%E -7.25%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -13.34%E -4.10%K -5.93%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.01%EV -3.62%E -1.55%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.73%EV -18.48%E -7.25%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -13.34%E -4.10%K -5.93%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-03 18:45
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.92%EV -4.45%E -1.92%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.54%EV -1.85%E -0.604%K -0.896%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -2.67%E -0.732%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-03 18:44
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -10.49%E -3.75%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -0.004%E -0.001%K -0.002%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -10.49%E -3.75%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -1.34%E -0.361%K -0.495%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 18:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -10.49%E -3.75%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -1.34%E -0.361%K -0.495%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 18:25
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 18:39
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 18:40
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 17:50
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -12.09%E -4.39%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.00%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -4.86%E -2.11%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -12.09%E -4.39%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 18:45
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.00%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 18:10
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.34%E -1.50%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.00%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 18:45
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -8.00%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 18:34
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -5.69%E -1.93%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -5.69%E -1.93%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 18:10
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:35
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:33
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.73%EV -6.01%E -2.04%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.81%EV -7.20%E -2.07%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 18:10
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 18:10
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 18:09
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -7.93%E -2.75%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:44
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -7.93%E -2.75%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -7.93%E -2.75%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.98%EV -7.93%E -2.75%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-03 18:44
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -6.93%E -3.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.49%E -3.75%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 18:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -8.17%E -3.68%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -2.49%E -0.818%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -8.17%E -3.68%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -2.49%E -0.818%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 18:20
BetUS🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -8.17%E -3.68%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -2.49%E -0.818%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -6.67%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 18:20
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -8.17%E -3.68%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -5.69%E -1.93%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 17:55
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -8.17%E -3.68%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -5.69%E -1.93%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 17:55
Bovada🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 41.76%EV -8.58%E -3.88%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.50%EV -6.33%E -2.16%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.00%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-03 18:35
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.00%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 18:35
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -9.00%E -4.09%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -4.09%E -1.36%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 18:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.56%EV -9.82%E -4.51%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -8.89%E -3.12%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-03 18:25
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -11.06%E -5.15%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -12.09%E -4.39%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -4.00%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 18:44
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.94%EV -12.31%E -5.80%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.53%EV -9.85%E -3.49%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.54%EV -10.67%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-03 18:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%EV -13.13%E -6.25%K -11.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.04%EV -7.29%E -2.51%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -8.00%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-03 18:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.89%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.16%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.95%0.3%2026-09-03 18:45
Matchbook◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.69%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-09-03 18:45
Smarkets◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.89%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%1.1%2026-09-03 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.89%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.39%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.72%1.1%2026-09-03 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.48%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68%1.3%2026-09-03 18:45
Kalshi◎2.33I 42.92%NM 42.08%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%2.0%2026-09-03 18:45