Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Falkirk F.C. v St Mirren

Kickoff: 2026-08-01 14:00 UTC

Final: Falkirk F.C. 0–2 St Mirren

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Falkirk F.C. (Local)

Prediction 44.31%2.26fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -2.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.88%44.50%44.24%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.072.102.2052.91%48.32%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Mirren (Visit)

Prediction 28.44%3.52fair odd
EV +3.80%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.054%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.26%28.33%28.44%29.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.343.253.6531.75%29.90%30.77%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.25%3.67fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.525%
Kelly -0.727%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.97%27.17%27.32%28.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.453.453.6030.77%28.96%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Falkirk F.C. (Local): 44.31%; St Mirren (Visit): 28.44%; Draw: 27.25%. For St Mirren (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.80%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.78%EV -16.25%E -8.60%K -18.26%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV +3.80%E +1.04%K +1.43%G +0.054%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -3.25%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-01 11:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -11.38%E -5.69%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV +2.37%E +0.660%K +0.913%G +0.022%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -1.89%E -0.525%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 13:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -11.38%E -5.69%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV +2.37%E +0.660%K +0.913%G +0.022%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -1.89%E -0.525%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-01 13:50
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -11.38%E -5.69%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV +2.37%E +0.660%K +0.913%G +0.022%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -3.25%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 13:50
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -12.71%E -6.45%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV +2.37%E +0.660%K +0.913%G +0.022%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -3.25%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-01 13:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -12.71%E -6.45%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV +2.37%E +0.660%K +0.913%G +0.022%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -3.25%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-01 13:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -12.71%E -6.45%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV +2.37%E +0.660%K +0.913%G +0.022%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -3.25%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-01 13:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.57%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.21%EV +0.953%E +0.268%K +0.374%G +0.004%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.21%EV -3.25%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-01 13:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.57%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.21%EV +0.953%E +0.268%K +0.374%G +0.004%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.21%EV -3.25%E -0.916%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-01 13:20
Casumo🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.35%EV -13.15%E -6.71%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV +0.953%E +0.268%K +0.374%G +0.004%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -4.61%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-01 13:50
TABtouch🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.35%EV -13.15%E -6.71%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV +0.953%E +0.268%K +0.374%G +0.004%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -4.61%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-01 13:49
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.35%EV -13.15%E -6.71%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.14%EV +0.953%E +0.268%K +0.374%G +0.004%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -4.61%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-01 13:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.37%EV -14.48%E -7.50%K -15.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -0.469%E -0.134%K -0.188%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.50%EV -5.98%E -1.73%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-01 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.33%EV -14.93%E -7.77%K -16.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -1.89%E -0.548%K -0.772%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -5.98%E -1.73%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-01 13:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.33%EV -14.93%E -7.77%K -16.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -1.89%E -0.548%K -0.772%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -5.98%E -1.73%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-01 13:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.33%EV -14.93%E -7.77%K -16.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -1.89%E -0.548%K -0.772%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -5.98%E -1.73%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-01 13:50
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.58%EV -4.29%E -1.99%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.99%EV -2.18%E -0.632%K -0.892%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.43%EV -4.34%E -1.24%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-01 13:50
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.31%E -0.974%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-01 13:39
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.91%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -4.61%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 13:50
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.73%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.04%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -5.98%E -1.73%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-01 13:54
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-01 13:40
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.70%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.70%EV -2.16%E -0.602%K -0.835%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-01 13:50
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 13:50
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.95%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -8.70%E -2.60%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-01 13:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-01 13:49
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-01 13:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.16%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-01 13:54
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -1.89%E -0.525%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 13:45
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.27%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -1.89%E -0.525%K -0.727%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-01 13:44
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -4.61%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 13:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -4.61%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 13:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -1.89%E -0.525%K -0.727%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 13:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -1.89%E -0.525%K -0.727%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 13:45
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.98%E -1.73%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.98%E -1.73%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 13:50
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-01 13:55
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -4.61%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 13:48
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -4.61%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 13:49
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -4.61%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 13:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.82%EV -5.62%E -2.64%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 13:55
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.76%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.69%EV -8.70%E -2.60%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-01 13:54
Bovada🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.23%EV -7.84%E -3.77%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -8.70%E -2.60%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-01 13:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.32%EV -11.82%E -5.94%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.75%EV -7.58%E -2.33%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.92%EV -8.70%E -2.60%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-01 13:40
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -2.52%E -1.14%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -9.00%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -5.98%E -1.73%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-01 13:55
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.88%EV -3.40%E -1.56%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -9.00%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.91%EV -8.70%E -2.60%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 13:55
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -9.00%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.61%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 13:45
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.57%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.00%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -8.70%E -2.60%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-01 13:50
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.00%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-01 13:48
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.00%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 13:55
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.00%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.00%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.95%E -3.31%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.00%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 13:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -9.00%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-01 13:45
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -11.38%E -5.69%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -9.00%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-01 13:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.81%EV -12.71%E -6.45%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.03%EV -10.42%E -3.31%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.16%EV -11.43%E -3.52%K -5.08%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-01 13:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 44.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.11%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.72%0.2%2026-08-01 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.38%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-08-01 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.38%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-08-01 13:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.38%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-08-01 13:40
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 44.21%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-08-01 13:55
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 45.13%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43%2.1%2026-08-01 13:55

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