Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Falkirk F.C. v Kilmarnock

2026-10-24 14:00 UTC — Premiership - Scotland

Resultado del partido

41 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Falkirk F.C. (Local)

Predicción 51.14%1.96momio equitativo
EV -3.85%
Ventaja -2.05%
Kelly -4.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.25%51.09%51.18%51.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.651.821.831.8860.61%55.09%54.64%53.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kilmarnock (Visitante)

Predicción 24.16%4.14momio equitativo
EV -0.948%
Ventaja -0.231%
Kelly -0.306%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.30%24.23%24.20%25.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.843.804.1028.57%26.05%26.32%24.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.70%4.05momio equitativo
EV -1.21%
Ventaja -0.302%
Kelly -0.402%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.52%24.68%24.63%25.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.453.723.704.0028.99%26.86%27.03%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Falkirk F.C. (Local): 51.14%; Kilmarnock (Visitante): 24.16%; Empate: 24.70%. Para Kilmarnock (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.14. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 4.10, con un valor esperado de -0.948%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.53%EV -3.85%E -2.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -0.948%E -0.231%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.84%EV -3.68%E -0.943%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-17 14:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.53%EV -3.85%E -2.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -0.948%E -0.231%K -0.306%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.84%EV -3.68%E -0.943%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-17 14:15
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.03%EV -4.36%E -2.33%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.86%EV -3.36%E -0.841%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-17 14:20
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.47%EV -5.39%E -2.91%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -6.99%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -1.21%E -0.302%K -0.402%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 14:20
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -5.39%E -2.91%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -3.36%E -0.841%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 15:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -5.39%E -2.91%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -3.68%E -0.943%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.99%EV -5.39%E -2.91%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -3.68%E -0.943%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 14:20
Pinnacle🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.61%EV -5.90%E -3.21%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.10%EV -4.81%E -1.22%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.29%EV -3.43%E -0.877%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 15:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.41%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -3.36%E -0.841%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 15:35
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.41%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -9.40%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -1.21%E -0.302%K -0.402%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.41%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -3.36%E -0.841%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 15:35
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -6.41%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -3.36%E -0.841%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 15:35
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.10%EV -6.41%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -6.99%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 14:13
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -6.41%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 14:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -6.41%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 14:15
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -6.41%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 15:35
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -6.41%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -9.40%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 14:20
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.41%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 15:30
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.41%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.41%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 15:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -6.41%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 15:35
1xBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -7.43%E -4.11%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.07%EV -6.26%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.32%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 14:40
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.70%EV -7.43%E -4.11%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 14:15
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.70%EV -7.43%E -4.11%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 14:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.70%EV -7.43%E -4.11%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 14:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.70%EV -7.43%E -4.11%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 14:15
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.70%EV -7.43%E -4.11%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 14:15
Casumo🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.70%EV -7.43%E -4.11%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 14:15
betPARX🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.70%EV -7.43%E -4.11%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 14:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.94%E -4.41%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 14:14
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.94%E -4.41%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -8.20%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 17:09
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -7.94%E -4.41%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -4.57%E -1.16%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 15:39
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -7.94%E -4.41%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -4.57%E -1.16%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 15:40
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -7.94%E -4.41%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -9.40%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-17 15:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.94%EV -8.45%E -4.72%K -10.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.21%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 14:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.13%EV -8.97%E -5.04%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -9.40%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.60%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-17 14:15
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.61%EV -8.97%E -5.04%K -11.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -9.40%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-17 14:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.58%EV -9.48%E -5.35%K -12.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.22%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 14:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.58%EV -9.48%E -5.35%K -12.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.22%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 14:15
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -10.50%E -6.00%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.44%E -4.41%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-17 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 51.29%EV -15.61%E -9.46%K -24.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.18%EV -15.44%E -4.41%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.53%EV -14.79%E -4.29%K -6.04%G +0.000%18.2%2026-10-17 14:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (2)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.30%6.9%2026-10-17 19:45
Smarkets◎1.75I 57.14%NM 50.53%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.91%13.1%2026-10-17 14:35