La escuela de los momios

Falkirk F.C. v Hibernian

Inicio: 2026-05-09 14:02 UTC

Final: Falkirk F.C. 1–3 Hibernian

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Falkirk F.C. (Local)

Predicción 45.18%2.21momio equitativo
EV -0.606%
Ventaja -0.276%
Kelly -0.505%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.96%45.18%45.23%46.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.912.092.082.2052.36%47.90%48.08%45.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Hibernian (Visitante)

Predicción 27.35%3.66momio equitativo
EV -0.716%
Ventaja -0.197%
Kelly -0.272%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.43%27.41%27.37%29.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.053.333.403.6332.79%30.02%29.41%27.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.47%3.64momio equitativo
EV -1.11%
Ventaja -0.308%
Kelly -0.426%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.99%27.41%27.40%28.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.153.403.403.6031.75%29.42%29.41%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -0.606%E -0.276%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -12.48%E -3.90%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 13:59
Svenska Spel2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -0.606%E -0.276%K -0.505%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -12.48%E -3.90%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 14:00
Unibet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -1.51%E -0.693%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -13.84%E -4.39%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -5.23%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 14:00
Unibet (NL)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -1.51%E -0.693%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -13.84%E -4.39%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -5.23%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 14:00
LeoVegas2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -1.51%E -0.693%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -13.84%E -4.39%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -5.23%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 14:00
Unibet (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -1.51%E -0.693%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -13.84%E -4.39%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -5.23%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 14:00
TABtouch2.16I 46.30%NM 43.08%EV -2.41%E -1.12%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -13.84%E -4.39%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 14:00
Casumo2.16I 46.30%NM 43.08%EV -2.41%E -1.12%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -13.84%E -4.39%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 14:00
Grosvenor2.16I 46.30%NM 43.08%EV -2.41%E -1.12%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -13.84%E -4.39%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 14:00
betPARX2.16I 46.30%NM 43.08%EV -2.41%E -1.12%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -13.84%E -4.39%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 43.11%EV -3.32%E -1.55%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -15.21%E -4.91%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-09 14:00
Pinnacle2.13I 46.95%NM 45.44%EV -3.77%E -1.77%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.66%EV -0.716%E -0.197%K -0.272%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.89%EV -4.68%E -1.35%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-09 13:59
1xBet2.12I 47.17%NM 45.29%EV -4.22%E -1.99%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.35%EV -4.00%E -1.14%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.35%EV -3.58%E -1.02%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-09 13:59
Virgin Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 42.96%EV -4.22%E -1.99%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -16.58%E -5.44%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -7.98%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 14:00
LiveScore Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 42.96%EV -4.22%E -1.99%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -16.58%E -5.44%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -7.98%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 13:59
PMU (FR)2.12I 47.17%NM 42.96%EV -4.22%E -1.99%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -16.58%E -5.44%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -7.98%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-09 14:00
Coolbet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -5.12%E -2.44%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -1.11%E -0.308%K -0.426%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 13:59
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.12%E -2.44%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 13:59
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.12%E -2.44%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -9.74%E -2.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -1.11%E -0.308%K -0.426%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 13:59
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.12%E -2.44%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -9.74%E -2.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 14:00
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.12%E -2.44%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -9.74%E -2.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-09 13:59
BetOnline.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -5.12%E -2.44%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -7.98%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 13:59
LowVig.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -5.12%E -2.44%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -7.98%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 13:59
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -5.12%E -2.44%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -11.11%E -3.42%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 13:59
Betway2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.12%E -2.44%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 13:59
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -6.03%E -2.90%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.64%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -7.98%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 13:59
NordicBet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -6.03%E -2.90%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -5.64%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.92%EV -7.98%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 14:00
PlayUp2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -6.03%E -2.90%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -8.37%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 14:00
Marathon Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 45.29%EV -6.93%E -3.36%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.28%EV -6.46%E -1.89%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 13:59
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.27%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 13:59
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 13:59
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 13:59
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -9.74%E -2.95%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -1.11%E -0.308%K -0.426%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 13:58
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.51%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -5.23%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 13:59
Everygame2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -4.27%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -7.98%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 13:59
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 13:59
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -4.27%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 13:59
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -4.27%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 13:58
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -4.27%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-09 13:59
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -4.27%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -10.72%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 13:59
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -4.27%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -10.72%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 13:59
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -4.27%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -10.72%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 13:59
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -4.27%E -1.22%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -10.72%E -3.30%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-09 13:59
Bovada2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 13:56
BetUS2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.38%E -3.60%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-09 13:59
Fanatics2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -9.64%E -4.82%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.01%E -2.06%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 14:00
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%EV -9.64%E -4.82%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.70%EV -11.11%E -3.42%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -9.35%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 13:59
Unibet (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -11.90%E -6.10%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.50%EV -11.11%E -3.42%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -7.98%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-09 13:59
NetBet (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 45.39%EV -13.71%E -7.18%K -15.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.09%EV -12.48%E -3.90%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.52%EV -13.47%E -4.28%K -6.26%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-09 14:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%0.7%2026-05-09 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 44.98%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27%1.1%2026-05-09 14:00
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 45.21%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.64%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.16%1.5%2026-05-09 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.21%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.64%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.16%1.5%2026-05-09 13:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.21%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.64%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.16%1.5%2026-05-09 13:59
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 45.13%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43%2.1%2026-05-09 14:00