La escuela de los momios

Aberdeen v Kilmarnock

Inicio: 2026-04-25 14:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Aberdeen (Local)

Predicción 46.87%2.13momio equitativo
EV -3.91%
Ventaja -1.91%
Kelly -3.73%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.92%46.81%46.88%47.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.831.982.002.0554.64%50.39%50.00%48.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Kilmarnock (Visitante)

Predicción 26.45%3.78momio equitativo
EV -2.93%
Ventaja -0.798%
Kelly -1.10%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.67

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.79%26.54%26.48%27.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.473.503.6730.30%28.83%28.57%27.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.68%3.75momio equitativo
EV +0.043%
Ventaja +0.012%
Kelly +0.016%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.09%26.65%26.65%27.83%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.493.503.7531.25%28.67%28.57%26.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV +0.043%E +0.012%K +0.016%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 14:05
FanDuel2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -1.29%E -0.349%K -0.478%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 16:05
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -8.60%E -4.41%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -1.29%E -0.349%K -0.478%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-21 17:19
ATG (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -3.91%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-20 03:09
Svenska Spel2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -3.91%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-20 03:10
Coolbet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -3.91%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 05:19
betfred_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 05:20
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 05:19
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 05:19
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -8.60%E -4.41%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -12.71%E -3.85%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -3.96%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-22 14:04
Pinnacle2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.91%EV -2.93%E -0.798%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.56%EV -4.49%E -1.25%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 07:39
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.41%EV -5.32%E -2.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -8.75%E -2.54%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-20 03:10
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.41%EV -5.32%E -2.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -8.75%E -2.54%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-20 03:09
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.41%EV -5.32%E -2.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -8.75%E -2.54%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-20 03:10
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 46.41%EV -5.32%E -2.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -8.75%E -2.54%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-20 03:09
Bet Right2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -5.29%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 05:19
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.78%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 15:04
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 12:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 06:15
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 06:15
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 06:15
DraftKings2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 05:20
Unibet (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 15:15
BetMGM1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -7.19%E -3.63%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 06:15
Casumo2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-20 03:10
TABtouch2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-20 03:10
Grosvenor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-20 03:10
BetRivers2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-20 03:10
betPARX2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.63%E -1.89%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-20 03:09
1xBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.87%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.78%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.09%EV -7.69%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 08:10
Marathon Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.12%EV -7.19%E -3.63%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -4.78%E -1.33%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.96%EV -7.69%E -2.22%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 08:10
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -7.19%E -3.63%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -6.10%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 07:34
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -7.19%E -3.63%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -6.10%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 07:35
LowVig.ag1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -7.19%E -3.63%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -6.10%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 11:24
BetOnline.ag1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -7.19%E -3.63%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -6.10%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 11:24
Bovada1.95I 51.28%NM 47.29%EV -8.60%E -4.41%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -6.10%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 07:39
BetUS1.95I 51.28%NM 47.29%EV -8.60%E -4.41%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -6.10%E -1.72%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 07:39
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -8.60%E -4.41%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-24 03:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 46.32%EV -7.66%E -3.89%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.24%EV -11.39%E -3.40%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-20 03:10
LiveScore Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 46.44%EV -8.13%E -4.15%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -11.39%E -3.40%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-20 03:10
Virgin Bet1.96I 51.02%NM 46.44%EV -8.13%E -4.15%K -8.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -11.39%E -3.40%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-20 03:10
PMU (FR)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.57%EV -8.60%E -4.41%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -11.39%E -3.40%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -7.96%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-20 03:10
PlayUp1.98I 50.51%NM 46.55%EV -7.19%E -3.63%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 07:35
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.60%E -4.41%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 05:54
Bet Victor1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.60%E -4.41%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 05:54
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09%EV -10.48%E -5.48%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -10.07%E -2.96%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.29%E -2.73%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-23 07:39
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 07:39
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 07:35
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 07:34
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.42%E -2.12%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-23 07:34
Unibet (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 46.93%EV -11.88%E -6.32%K -13.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.34%EV -11.39%E -3.40%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -11.96%E -3.62%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-23 15:19
NetBet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 47.21%EV -14.22%E -7.77%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.79%EV -11.39%E -3.40%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.00%EV -14.63%E -4.57%K -6.65%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-23 15:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 48.47%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.77%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.77%2.1%2026-04-24 03:50
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 48.47%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.43%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.11%2.1%2026-04-24 03:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.29%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37%2.5%2026-04-24 03:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.29%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.37%2.5%2026-04-24 03:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.15%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%3.3%2026-04-24 03:40
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 47.23%3.57I 28.01%NM 25.93%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.83%8.0%2026-04-24 00:34