Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Aberdeen v Hearts

Inicio: 2026-08-01 16:30 UTC

Final: Aberdeen 2–1 Hearts

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Aberdeen (Local)

Predicción 31.82%3.14momio equitativo
EV -1.36%
Ventaja -0.440%
Kelly -0.649%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.81%31.94%31.74%33.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.882.903.1037.04%34.68%34.48%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Hearts (Visitante)

Predicción 41.10%2.43momio equitativo
EV -0.130%
Ventaja -0.054%
Kelly -0.091%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.33%41.04%41.10%42.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.292.302.4346.51%43.58%43.48%41.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.08%3.69momio equitativo
EV -1.69%
Ventaja -0.465%
Kelly -0.642%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.97%27.02%27.16%28.58%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.463.453.6331.25%28.88%28.99%27.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Aberdeen (Local): 31.82%; Hearts (Visitante): 41.10%; Empate: 27.08%. Para Hearts (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.433. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.430, con un valor esperado de -0.130%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetOnline.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.17%EV -1.36%E -0.440%K -0.649%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.20%EV -5.88%E -2.57%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.62%EV -1.69%E -0.465%K -0.642%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-01 16:15
LowVig.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.17%EV -1.36%E -0.440%K -0.649%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.20%EV -5.88%E -2.57%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.62%EV -1.69%E -0.465%K -0.642%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-01 16:14
Pinnacle🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.41%EV -2.64%E -0.861%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.97%EV -5.88%E -2.57%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.62%EV -2.23%E -0.618%K -0.855%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-01 16:20
1xBet🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 31.90%EV -4.23%E -1.40%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.52%EV -0.130%E -0.054%K -0.091%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.58%EV -9.00%E -2.68%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-01 16:25
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -4.54%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-01 16:05
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.54%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.10%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-01 16:15
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.46%EV -4.54%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -3.86%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 16:15
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -4.54%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 16:05
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.54%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 16:19
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -4.54%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 16:20
Everygame🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -4.54%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-01 16:14
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.22%EV -4.54%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.63%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-01 16:25
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -4.54%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -9.58%E -4.36%K -7.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-01 16:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 31.43%EV -5.50%E -1.85%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.12%EV -6.71%E -2.95%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 16:23
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -6.14%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-01 16:24
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -6.14%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-01 16:23
Bovada🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.50%EV -6.77%E -2.31%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 41.76%EV -9.17%E -4.15%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-01 16:14
Betsson🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.98%EV -7.09%E -2.43%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.96%EV -6.29%E -2.76%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 16:25
NordicBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.98%EV -7.09%E -2.43%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.96%EV -6.29%E -2.76%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-01 16:24
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.90%EV -7.73%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.60%EV -3.42%E -1.45%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -2.50%E -0.695%K -0.962%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-01 15:44
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.73%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 16:25
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.73%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-01 16:05
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.73%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-01 16:24
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.73%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 16:25
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.73%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 16:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.73%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 16:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.73%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-01 16:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.45%EV -7.73%E -2.66%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.90%EV -8.35%E -3.74%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -10.63%E -3.22%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-01 16:05
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.76%EV -8.36%E -2.90%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -2.50%E -0.695%K -0.962%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 15:44
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -8.36%E -2.90%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -2.50%E -0.695%K -0.962%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-01 16:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.33%EV -9.32%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.91%EV -2.19%E -0.918%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.76%EV -3.86%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 16:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.33%EV -9.32%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.91%EV -2.19%E -0.918%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.76%EV -3.86%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 16:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -9.32%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -3.42%E -1.45%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-01 16:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -9.32%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -2.50%E -0.695%K -0.962%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 15:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -9.32%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -2.50%E -0.695%K -0.962%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-01 15:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -9.32%E -3.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.53%E -3.35%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-01 16:20
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -1.36%E -0.568%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 15:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -1.36%E -0.568%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 15:30
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -1.36%E -0.568%K -0.974%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-01 15:30
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.55%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -3.42%E -1.45%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -3.86%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-01 16:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.55%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -3.42%E -1.45%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -3.86%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-01 16:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.63%EV -2.60%E -1.10%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-01 15:29
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.03%EV -4.24%E -1.82%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-01 16:24
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.03%EV -4.24%E -1.82%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-01 16:24
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.50%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -3.86%E -1.09%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 15:45
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -3.42%E -1.45%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-01 15:30
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.72%EV -4.24%E -1.82%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-01 16:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -10.91%E -3.90%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.99%EV -11.64%E -5.41%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -13.34%E -4.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-01 16:04
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -12.50%E -4.55%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.79%EV -4.24%E -1.82%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -5.21%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 16:24
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.70%EV -12.50%E -4.55%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.44%EV -3.42%E -1.45%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-01 16:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -12.50%E -4.55%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -6.56%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-01 16:24
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -12.50%E -4.55%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -11.64%E -5.41%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-01 15:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -14.09%E -5.22%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.76%EV -6.29%E -2.76%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-01 16:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -14.09%E -5.22%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.76%EV -6.29%E -2.76%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-01 16:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -14.09%E -5.22%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.76%EV -6.29%E -2.76%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -7.92%E -2.33%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-01 16:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi3.03I 33.00%NM 32.99%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.99%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.02%0.0%2026-08-01 15:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.71%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.93%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.36%0.1%2026-08-01 16:25
Smarkets3.15I 31.75%NM 31.60%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.13%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.27%0.5%2026-08-01 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-08-01 16:20
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-08-01 16:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%0.8%2026-08-01 16:25