Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tenerife v Almería

Inicio: 2026-08-23 19:33 UTC

Final: Tenerife 1–0 Almería

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tenerife (Local)

Predicción 34.45%2.90momio equitativo
EV -1.11%
Ventaja -0.388%
Kelly -0.596%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.83%34.41%34.41%35.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.552.682.652.8739.22%37.27%37.74%34.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Almería (Visitante)

Predicción 35.82%2.79momio equitativo
EV -1.85%
Ventaja -0.674%
Kelly -1.06%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.44%35.85%35.90%37.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.532.552.7443.48%39.53%39.22%36.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.72%3.36momio equitativo
EV -3.40%
Ventaja -1.05%
Kelly -1.51%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.40%29.73%29.69%31.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.853.073.103.2535.09%32.61%32.26%30.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Tenerife (Local): 34.45%; Almería (Visitante): 35.82%; Empate: 29.72%. Para Tenerife (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.90. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.87, con un valor esperado de -1.11%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.10%EV -1.11%E -0.388%K -0.596%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -6.86%E -2.64%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.35%EV -6.97%E -2.23%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 19:24
Pinnacle🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.99%EV -1.80%E -0.633%K -0.975%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.35%EV -1.85%E -0.674%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.66%EV -6.08%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-23 19:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.24%EV -1.80%E -0.633%K -0.975%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.15%EV -8.65%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 18:44
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.24%EV -1.80%E -0.633%K -0.975%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.15%EV -8.65%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 18:44
BetOnline.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.41%EV -2.84%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.69%EV -5.43%E -2.06%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.89%EV -9.35%E -3.06%K -4.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 19:14
LowVig.ag🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.41%EV -2.84%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.69%EV -5.43%E -2.06%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.89%EV -9.35%E -3.06%K -4.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 19:14
BetAnything🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.41%EV -2.84%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.69%EV -5.43%E -2.06%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.89%EV -9.35%E -3.06%K -4.56%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 19:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -3.53%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -12.23%E -4.99%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 08:00
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.58%EV -5.25%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.22%EV -3.28%E -1.21%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 19:05
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -5.25%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -6.86%E -2.64%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 07:15
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -5.25%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.74%EV -6.14%E -2.35%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.21%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 19:09
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.85%EV -5.25%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.13%EV -5.07%E -1.91%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 18:50
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -5.25%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.01%EV -11.16%E -4.50%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 18:44
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -5.25%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.01%EV -11.16%E -4.50%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 18:44
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -5.25%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.01%EV -11.16%E -4.50%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 18:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.01%EV -5.59%E -2.04%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.12%EV -7.58%E -2.94%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.87%EV -7.27%E -2.33%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 18:40
Bovada🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.96%EV -6.28%E -2.31%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.25%EV -6.14%E -2.35%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-23 19:19
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -6.97%E -2.58%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -3.28%E -1.21%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.40%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 18:59
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -6.97%E -2.58%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -6.86%E -2.64%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 18:50
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -6.97%E -2.58%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -12.95%E -5.33%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -9.35%E -3.06%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 18:44
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -6.97%E -2.58%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -12.95%E -5.33%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -9.35%E -3.06%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 18:44
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -6.97%E -2.58%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -12.95%E -5.33%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -9.35%E -3.06%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 18:44
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.37%EV -6.97%E -2.58%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.08%EV -12.95%E -5.33%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -9.35%E -3.06%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 18:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -8.69%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -5.07%E -1.91%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -3.40%E -1.05%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 14:00
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.69%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.65%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 07:05
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.69%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -8.65%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 07:05
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -8.69%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -10.44%E -4.18%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 18:55
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -8.69%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -10.44%E -4.18%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 19:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.21%EV -8.69%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.01%EV -12.23%E -4.99%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-23 07:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.47%EV -8.69%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -14.03%E -5.84%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-23 18:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.37%EV -8.69%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.15%EV -14.74%E -6.19%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.48%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-23 07:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.37%EV -8.69%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.15%EV -14.74%E -6.19%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.48%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-23 07:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.21%EV -9.38%E -3.57%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.29%EV -8.65%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.50%EV -12.32%E -4.18%K -6.32%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-23 19:03
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -9.38%E -3.57%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.39%EV -12.23%E -4.99%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-23 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -9.38%E -3.57%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.39%EV -12.23%E -4.99%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-23 18:49
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -9.38%E -3.57%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -10.44%E -4.18%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -13.81%E -4.76%K -7.27%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-23 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -9.38%E -3.57%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -10.44%E -4.18%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -14.40%E -5.00%K -7.66%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-23 19:19
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.73%E -3.71%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -8.65%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.29%EV -7.27%E -2.33%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 19:22
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.73%E -3.71%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -8.65%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.29%EV -7.27%E -2.33%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 19:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.73%E -3.71%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -6.14%E -2.35%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-23 19:05
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -9.73%E -3.71%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -6.14%E -2.35%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -13.81%E -4.76%K -7.27%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-23 19:05
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -9.73%E -3.71%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -10.44%E -4.18%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-23 18:44
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -9.73%E -3.71%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -12.23%E -4.99%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 18:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -9.73%E -3.71%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -12.23%E -4.99%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -10.83%E -3.61%K -5.42%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 18:59
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -9.73%E -3.71%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -10.44%E -4.18%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -13.81%E -4.76%K -7.27%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-23 18:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -6.86%E -2.64%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 14:00
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -8.65%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-23 14:00
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -6.86%E -2.64%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 18:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -10.44%E -4.18%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -4.89%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-23 07:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -8.65%E -3.39%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -7.86%E -2.54%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-23 07:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.08%EV -12.14%E -4.76%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.52%EV -12.23%E -4.99%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.40%EV -6.37%E -2.02%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-23 07:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.07%EV -12.14%E -4.76%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.46%EV -12.23%E -4.99%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.48%EV -15.29%E -5.37%K -8.27%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-23 19:14
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.47%EV -12.14%E -4.76%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.10%EV -17.61%E -7.66%K -13.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.43%EV -13.81%E -4.76%K -7.27%G +0.000%17.2%2026-08-23 18:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.05%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%0.5%2026-08-23 19:10
Matchbook◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.32%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.05%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.63%0.5%2026-08-23 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.48%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.55%0.7%2026-08-23 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.48%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.55%0.7%2026-08-23 19:25
Smarkets◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.39%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%1.0%2026-08-23 19:25
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 33.96%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.97%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.07%3.0%2026-08-23 18:40