Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting Gijón v Cádiz CF

Kickoff: 2026-04-19 14:19 UTC

Final: Sporting Gijón 3–0 Cádiz CF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sporting Gijón (Local)

Prediction 58.64%1.71fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -4.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.71%58.64%58.64%59.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.581.571.6666.67%63.10%63.69%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cádiz CF (Visit)

Prediction 17.66%5.66fair odd
EV +1.73%
Edge +0.301%
Kelly +0.364%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 5.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.19%17.70%17.67%19.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.075.005.7622.22%19.73%20.00%17.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.69%4.22fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.577%
Kelly -0.762%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.68%23.65%23.69%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.813.804.1230.77%26.27%26.32%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Gijón (Local): 58.64%; Cádiz CF (Visit): 17.66%; Draw: 23.69%. For Cádiz CF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.66. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.76, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.87%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.16%G +0.000%5.76I 17.36%NM 16.73%EV +1.73%E +0.301%K +0.364%G +0.006%4.12I 24.27%NM 23.40%EV -2.38%E -0.577%K -0.762%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-19 14:14
FanDuel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.22%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.31%EV +0.674%E +0.118%K +0.143%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -9.96%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 14:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -9.10%E -5.87%K -16.55%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.19%EV +0.674%E +0.118%K +0.143%G +0.001%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -9.96%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 14:15
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -5.00%E -3.09%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV -2.86%E -0.520%K -0.635%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -5.22%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-19 14:13
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.63%EV -6.76%E -4.25%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -2.86%E -0.520%K -0.635%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.13%EV -2.85%E -0.695%K -0.920%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-19 14:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -2.86%E -0.520%K -0.635%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -7.59%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 14:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.78%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%EV -2.86%E -0.520%K -0.635%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -7.59%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 14:15
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -9.10%E -5.87%K -16.55%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -2.86%E -0.520%K -0.635%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-19 14:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.83%EV -8.52%E -5.46%K -15.21%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.13%EV -3.74%E -0.686%K -0.841%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.05%EV -4.04%E -0.997%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 14:14
BetAnything🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.21%EV -8.52%E -5.46%K -15.21%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.11%EV -4.62%E -0.856%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -7.59%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-19 14:14
Bovada🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.20%EV -5.51%E -1.03%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -9.96%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-19 14:08
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.93%EV -3.83%E -2.33%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.29I 18.90%NM 17.96%EV -6.57%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.11%EV -6.64%E -1.69%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-19 14:14
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.16%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.16%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -7.27%E -1.39%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -7.59%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 14:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -7.27%E -1.39%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.59%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 14:14
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.61%EV -8.52%E -5.46%K -15.21%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -7.27%E -1.39%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.68%EV -2.85%E -0.695%K -0.920%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 14:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.77%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.57%EV -7.27%E -1.39%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -7.59%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 14:14
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.93%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.00%EV -9.04%E -1.76%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -8.78%E -2.28%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 14:14
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.93%EV -6.17%E -3.86%K -10.29%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.00%EV -9.04%E -1.76%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -8.78%E -2.28%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 14:14
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.07%EV -3.24%E -1.96%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV -9.92%E -1.95%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -8.78%E -2.28%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 14:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.07%EV -3.24%E -1.96%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV -9.92%E -1.95%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -8.78%E -2.28%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 14:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.07%EV -3.24%E -1.96%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV -9.92%E -1.95%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -8.78%E -2.28%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 14:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.07%EV -3.24%E -1.96%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV -9.92%E -1.95%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.46%EV -8.78%E -2.28%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 14:15
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.56%EV -2.65%E -1.60%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.41%EV -9.92%E -1.95%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 14:15
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -11.69%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -5.22%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-19 14:13
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.57%EV -5.00%E -3.09%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -11.69%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.11%EV -13.51%E -3.70%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 14:15
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -11.69%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -9.96%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 14:15
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -11.69%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-19 14:15
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -9.10%E -5.87%K -16.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -11.69%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -9.96%E -2.62%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-19 14:15
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -11.69%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -14.70%E -4.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-19 14:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -11.69%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -14.70%E -4.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-19 14:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.34%EV -10.28%E -6.72%K -19.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -11.69%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-19 14:13
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.64%EV -12.04%E -8.02%K -24.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.59%EV -11.69%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -12.33%E -3.33%K -4.57%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-19 14:14
TABtouch🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.73%EV -5.00%E -3.09%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -13.46%E -2.75%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 14:15
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.73%EV -5.00%E -3.09%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -13.46%E -2.75%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 14:15
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.73%EV -5.00%E -3.09%K -8.06%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -13.46%E -2.75%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 14:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.89%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.69%EV -13.46%E -2.75%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-19 14:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.51%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.57%EV -13.46%E -2.75%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -13.51%E -3.70%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-19 14:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.19%EV -8.52%E -5.46%K -15.21%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.53%EV -13.46%E -2.75%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -7.59%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 14:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.29%EV -10.86%E -7.15%K -20.89%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.08%EV -13.46%E -2.75%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.63%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-19 14:15
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.24%EV -7.34%E -4.65%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.65%EV -14.34%E -2.96%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-19 14:15
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.82%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -15.22%E -3.17%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -7.59%E -1.95%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 14:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.75%EV -7.34%E -4.65%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -15.22%E -3.17%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -13.51%E -3.70%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-19 14:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.75%EV -7.34%E -4.65%K -12.66%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -15.22%E -3.17%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -13.51%E -3.70%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-19 14:15
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -5.58%E -3.47%K -9.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -16.10%E -3.39%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -5.22%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.81%EV -9.10%E -5.87%K -16.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.73%EV -16.99%E -3.61%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.46%EV -14.70%E -4.08%K -5.65%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-19 14:15
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.82%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -18.75%E -4.08%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-19 14:14
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.82%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -18.75%E -4.08%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-19 14:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.82%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -18.75%E -4.08%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-19 14:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.82%EV -7.93%E -5.05%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -18.75%E -4.08%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -11.14%E -2.97%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-19 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.11%EV -9.69%E -6.29%K -17.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.12%EV -18.75%E -4.08%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -12.33%E -3.33%K -4.57%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-19 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 55.71%EV -12.04%E -8.02%K -24.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.57%EV -20.52%E -4.56%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.71%EV -22.99%E -7.07%K -10.22%G +0.000%19.7%2026-04-19 14:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 59.93%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-04-19 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.65I 60.61%NM 59.93%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-04-19 14:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 59.93%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-04-19 14:15
Matchbook1.64I 60.98%NM 60.10%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%1.5%2026-04-19 14:15
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 60.24%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.50%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.26%3.1%2026-04-19 14:15
Smarkets1.63I 61.35%NM 59.21%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.36%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.43%3.6%2026-04-19 14:15