Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SD Eibar v Tenerife

Inicio: 2026-08-16 15:00 UTC

Final: SD Eibar 1–3 Tenerife

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SD Eibar (Local)

Predicción 50.77%1.97momio equitativo
EV -2.52%
Ventaja -1.31%
Kelly -2.74%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.92

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.33%50.77%50.86%52.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.711.831.831.9258.48%54.59%54.64%52.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tenerife (Visitante)

Predicción 21.28%4.70momio equitativo
EV +1.70%
Ventaja +0.356%
Kelly +0.450%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.86%21.21%21.18%22.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.264.304.7825.64%23.46%23.26%20.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.95%3.58momio equitativo
EV -3.29%
Ventaja -0.949%
Kelly -1.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.46

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.44%28.01%27.97%29.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.213.203.4634.48%31.12%31.25%28.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: SD Eibar (Local): 50.77%; Tenerife (Visitante): 21.28%; Empate: 27.95%. Para Tenerife (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.70. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.78, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.70%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.46%EV -8.10%E -4.48%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.86%EV +1.70%E +0.356%K +0.450%G +0.008%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.68%EV -4.12%E -1.20%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-16 14:55
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.86%EV -6.07%E -3.28%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV +0.001%E +0.000%K +0.000%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.73%EV -3.29%E -0.949%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-16 14:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.12%EV -9.12%E -5.09%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -2.13%E -0.462%K -0.591%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -5.52%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:54
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -7.09%E -3.87%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -2.13%E -0.462%K -0.591%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -10.55%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-16 14:48
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.05%EV -10.14%E -5.73%K -13.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -2.13%E -0.462%K -0.591%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-16 14:55
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.88%EV -5.06%E -2.70%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -4.25%E -0.945%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -4.96%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-16 14:44
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -8.61%E -4.78%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -4.25%E -0.945%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.96%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 14:50
SportsBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.82%EV -8.10%E -4.48%K -10.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -4.25%E -0.945%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -10.55%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 14:45
Bovada🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -9.12%E -5.09%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.68%EV -5.32%E -1.20%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-16 14:48
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.24%EV -3.54%E -1.86%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.69%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.07%EV -4.96%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 14:49
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.63%EV -5.06%E -2.70%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -4.96%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-16 14:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.04%EV -6.07%E -3.28%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -6.38%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -10.55%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-16 14:50
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.77%EV -8.61%E -4.78%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -7.87%E -1.82%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.12%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-16 14:54
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.68%EV -7.09%E -3.87%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -7.87%E -1.82%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -13.35%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-16 14:50
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.48%EV -11.15%E -6.37%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.80%EV -7.87%E -1.82%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.72%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-16 14:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -11.15%E -6.37%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -7.87%E -1.82%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -13.35%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-16 14:45
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.80%EV -11.15%E -6.37%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.53%EV -7.87%E -1.82%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -13.35%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-16 14:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.25%EV -4.55%E -2.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.97%EV -8.51%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -4.96%E -1.46%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 14:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.04%EV -4.55%E -2.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -8.51%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.36%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 14:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.04%EV -4.55%E -2.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -8.51%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.36%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 14:55
BetAnything🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.04%EV -4.55%E -2.42%K -5.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -8.51%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -6.36%E -1.90%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-16 14:54
Unibet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.64%EV -2.52%E -1.31%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -8.51%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -11.95%E -3.79%K -5.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 14:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.64%EV -2.52%E -1.31%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -8.51%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -11.95%E -3.79%K -5.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 14:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.64%EV -2.52%E -1.31%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -8.51%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -11.95%E -3.79%K -5.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 14:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.64%EV -2.52%E -1.31%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -8.51%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -11.95%E -3.79%K -5.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 14:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.64%EV -2.52%E -1.31%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -8.51%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -11.95%E -3.79%K -5.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-16 14:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.26%EV -10.64%E -6.05%K -14.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.98%EV -8.51%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.76%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-16 14:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.76%EV -13.18%E -7.71%K -18.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.58%EV -8.51%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.66%EV -10.55%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-16 14:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.62%EV -5.06%E -2.70%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -9.57%E -2.25%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-16 14:50
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -7.09%E -3.87%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 14:49
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -6.07%E -3.28%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.55%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-16 14:45
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -6.07%E -3.28%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -10.55%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-16 14:44
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -7.09%E -3.87%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-16 14:49
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -7.09%E -3.87%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-16 14:44
Codere (IT)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.09%E -3.87%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -10.55%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-16 14:44
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -7.09%E -3.87%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -10.55%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-16 14:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.72%EV -9.63%E -5.41%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-16 14:45
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -8.61%E -4.78%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -10.64%E -2.53%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -13.35%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-16 14:40
Grosvenor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.33%EV -5.06%E -2.70%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -12.77%E -3.11%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.63%EV -14.75%E -4.83%K -7.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-16 14:55
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.33%EV -5.06%E -2.70%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -12.77%E -3.11%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.63%EV -14.75%E -4.83%K -7.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-16 14:55
TABtouch🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.33%EV -5.06%E -2.70%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -12.77%E -3.11%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.63%EV -14.75%E -4.83%K -7.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-16 14:55
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.33%EV -5.06%E -2.70%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.04%EV -12.77%E -3.11%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.63%EV -14.75%E -4.83%K -7.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-16 14:54
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.33%EV -7.09%E -3.87%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.02%EV -12.77%E -3.11%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.66%EV -11.95%E -3.79%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-16 14:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.63%EV -7.09%E -3.87%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.71%EV -12.77%E -3.11%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -16.14%E -5.38%K -8.07%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-16 14:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.84%EV -7.60%E -4.17%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -7.76%E -2.35%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-16 14:45
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -8.61%E -4.78%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.55%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-16 14:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -8.61%E -4.78%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.55%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-16 14:45
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -8.61%E -4.78%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.55%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-16 14:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -8.61%E -4.78%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -10.55%E -3.30%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-16 14:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.37%EV -7.09%E -3.87%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -16.14%E -5.38%K -8.07%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-16 14:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.37%EV -7.09%E -3.87%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -14.89%E -3.72%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -16.14%E -5.38%K -8.07%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-16 14:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.76%EV -8.61%E -4.78%K -10.77%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.68%EV -15.96%E -4.04%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -9.16%E -2.82%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-16 14:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 48.59%EV -10.64%E -6.05%K -14.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.93%EV -17.02%E -4.36%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.49%EV -18.94%E -6.53%K -9.97%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-16 14:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.40%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.15%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.45%0.4%2026-08-16 14:55
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.43%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.76%0.9%2026-08-16 14:55
Matchbook◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.01%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.23%1.2%2026-08-16 14:55
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.79%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.68%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.52%1.6%2026-08-16 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.79%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.68%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.52%1.6%2026-08-16 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 51.79%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.68%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.52%1.6%2026-08-16 14:55