Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Real Valladolid CF v Oviedo

Inicio: 2026-09-13 14:17 UTC

Final: Real Valladolid CF 0–3 Oviedo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Real Valladolid CF (Local)

Predicción 37.66%2.66momio equitativo
EV -3.22%
Ventaja -1.25%
Kelly -2.05%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.63%37.70%37.69%39.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.412.402.5745.45%41.49%41.67%38.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Oviedo (Visitante)

Predicción 30.84%3.24momio equitativo
EV -1.31%
Ventaja -0.410%
Kelly -0.597%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.70%30.79%30.83%32.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.993.003.2037.04%33.42%33.33%31.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 31.50%3.17momio equitativo
EV -2.34%
Ventaja -0.756%
Kelly -1.12%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.24%31.50%31.47%32.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.752.902.903.1036.36%34.42%34.48%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Real Valladolid CF (Local): 37.66%; Oviedo (Visitante): 30.84%; Empate: 31.50%. Para Oviedo (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.24. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.20, con un valor esperado de -1.31%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.68%EV -3.22%E -1.25%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.36%EV -1.62%E -0.508%K -0.741%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.96%EV -4.55%E -1.50%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-13 14:11
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV -4.35%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.28%EV -6.25%E -2.06%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.28%EV -4.23%E -1.39%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 14:11
LowVig.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.00%EV -4.35%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -5.94%E -1.95%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.19%EV -8.01%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 14:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.00%EV -4.35%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -5.94%E -1.95%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.19%EV -8.01%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 14:15
BetAnything🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.00%EV -4.35%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -5.94%E -1.95%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.19%EV -8.01%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 14:14
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -5.85%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.40%E -1.42%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -5.49%E -1.83%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-13 13:50
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -5.85%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -10.57%E -3.64%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -5.49%E -1.83%K -2.75%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 14:16
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -5.85%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -8.64%E -2.98%K -4.55%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 13:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -5.85%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -9.27%E -3.22%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-13 14:11
Marathon Bet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.92%EV -7.36%E -2.99%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -6.86%E -2.27%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.20%EV -5.81%E -1.94%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 13:50
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -4.40%E -1.42%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.63%EV -2.34%E -0.756%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-13 14:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -5.94%E -1.95%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -2.34%E -0.756%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 14:11
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -5.94%E -1.95%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -7.07%E -2.40%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 14:16
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -4.40%E -1.42%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -10.22%E -3.59%K -5.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 14:05
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.68%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.27%EV -5.94%E -1.95%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -9.27%E -3.22%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 14:14
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -4.40%E -1.42%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -11.79%E -4.21%K -6.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-13 14:06
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.46%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -9.02%E -3.06%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.43%EV -8.01%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 14:00
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.46%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.11%EV -9.02%E -3.06%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.43%EV -8.01%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 14:00
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -11.79%E -4.21%K -6.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 14:15
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.10%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.34%EV -10.57%E -3.64%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.56%EV -9.27%E -3.22%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -7.74%E -3.16%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -13.65%E -4.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.06%EV -8.64%E -2.98%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-13 14:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.37%EV -8.49%E -3.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -10.57%E -3.64%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -8.64%E -2.98%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 14:01
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -2.86%E -0.907%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.92%E -1.28%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 13:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -2.86%E -0.907%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.92%E -1.28%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 13:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -2.86%E -0.907%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.92%E -1.28%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 13:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -2.86%E -0.907%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.92%E -1.28%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 13:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -2.86%E -0.907%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.92%E -1.28%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 13:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.49%E -1.83%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 14:10
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.49%E -1.83%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 14:10
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.64%E -2.98%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 14:14
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.64%E -2.98%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 14:14
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.85%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -10.22%E -3.59%K -5.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 14:10
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -13.37%E -4.86%K -7.64%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 14:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -11.18%E -3.88%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -11.79%E -4.21%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 14:10
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -11.18%E -3.88%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -11.79%E -4.21%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 14:11
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.13%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.05%EV -11.49%E -4.00%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -11.79%E -4.21%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-13 14:10
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.13%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.05%EV -11.49%E -4.00%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -11.79%E -4.21%K -6.55%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-13 14:11
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.63%EV -9.62%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.97%EV -15.19%E -5.52%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.40%EV -11.79%E -4.21%K -6.55%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-13 14:15
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.36%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -11.18%E -3.88%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -8.64%E -2.98%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-13 14:14
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -10.37%E -4.36%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -13.37%E -4.86%K -7.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 14:06
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -10.37%E -4.36%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -13.37%E -4.86%K -7.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 14:06
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -11.50%E -4.89%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -1.31%E -0.410%K -0.597%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -10.22%E -3.59%K -5.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 13:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.91%EV -11.50%E -4.89%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.12%EV -16.73%E -6.20%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.97%EV -11.79%E -4.21%K -6.55%G +0.000%15.3%2026-09-13 14:15
Casumo🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.86%EV -12.63%E -5.45%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.09%EV -8.64%E -2.98%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-13 13:20
TABtouch🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.86%EV -12.63%E -5.45%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.09%EV -8.64%E -2.98%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-13 13:21
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.86%EV -12.63%E -5.45%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.09%EV -8.64%E -2.98%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-13 13:20
betPARX🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.86%EV -12.63%E -5.45%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.09%EV -8.64%E -2.98%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-13 13:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.59%EV -12.63%E -5.45%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.93%EV -13.03%E -4.62%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.48%EV -12.74%E -4.60%K -7.20%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-13 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -13.39%E -5.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.27%E -3.22%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-13 13:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.98%EV -13.39%E -5.82%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -7.48%E -2.49%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.27%E -3.22%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-13 13:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.99%EV -14.14%E -6.20%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.14%EV -9.02%E -3.06%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -9.27%E -3.22%K -4.93%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 13:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.98%EV -15.27%E -6.79%K -12.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.77%EV -12.11%E -4.25%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.24%EV -8.64%E -2.98%K -4.55%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-13 13:59
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.88%EV -17.15%E -7.80%K -14.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.01%EV -12.11%E -4.25%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.11%EV -13.37%E -4.86%K -7.64%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-13 13:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.04%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43%1.1%2026-09-13 14:06
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.23%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.34%1.4%2026-09-13 14:16
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.23%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.34%1.4%2026-09-13 14:16
Matchbook◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.41%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.35%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.24%1.7%2026-09-13 14:16
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.26%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.33%2.1%2026-09-13 14:16
Smarkets◎2.50I 40.00%NM 38.63%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.71%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.66%3.6%2026-09-13 14:16