L’École des cotes

Real Valladolid CF v Cádiz CF

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-31 19:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

39 opérateurs (10 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Real Valladolid CF (Local)

Prévision 53.09%1.88cote équitable
EV -4.96%
Avantage -2.77%
Kelly -6.28%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.79

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
51.06%53.10%53.06%54.06%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.561.731.741.7964.10%57.85%57.47%55.87%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cádiz CF (Visiteur)

Prévision 21.39%4.67cote équitable
EV -3.74%
Avantage -0.831%
Kelly -1.07%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.15%21.46%21.39%23.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.194.254.5026.67%23.85%23.53%22.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.52%3.92cote équitable
EV -0.233%
Avantage -0.060%
Kelly -0.080%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.91

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.56%25.45%25.55%26.21%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.253.553.553.9130.77%28.17%28.17%25.58%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (39 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet1.79I 55.87%NM 52.58%EV -4.96%E -2.77%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.64%EV -6.95%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -6.87%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-26 03:26
Unibet (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 52.58%EV -4.96%E -2.77%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.64%EV -6.95%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -6.87%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-26 03:26
Unibet (NL)1.79I 55.87%NM 52.58%EV -4.96%E -2.77%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.64%EV -6.95%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -6.87%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-26 03:30
Svenska Spel1.79I 55.87%NM 52.58%EV -4.96%E -2.77%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.64%EV -6.95%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -6.87%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-26 03:30
ATG (SE)1.79I 55.87%NM 52.58%EV -4.96%E -2.77%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.64%EV -6.95%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -6.87%E -1.88%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-26 03:30
1xBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.95%EV -5.49%E -3.09%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.48%EV -4.38%E -0.980%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.56%EV -0.233%E -0.060%K -0.080%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-28 00:50
Coolbet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.47%EV -5.49%E -3.09%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.15%EV -3.74%E -0.831%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -4.32%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-27 20:00
Fanatics1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -6.03%E -3.40%K -7.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -3.74%E -0.831%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.04%E -0.800%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-27 08:19
PlayUp1.77I 56.50%NM 51.06%EV -6.03%E -3.40%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.48%EV -17.64%E -4.58%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -9.42%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-27 22:05
Betr (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -5.88%E -1.34%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.59%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-27 07:45
Betway1.75I 57.14%NM 52.90%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -7.38%E -1.70%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -8.14%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-28 00:44
NordicBet1.75I 57.14%NM 52.76%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%EV -6.95%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -9.42%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-25 01:09
Betsson1.75I 57.14%NM 52.76%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%EV -6.95%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -9.42%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-25 01:10
Grosvenor1.75I 57.14%NM 52.50%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -9.09%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -9.42%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-27 06:35
TABtouch1.75I 57.14%NM 52.50%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -9.09%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -9.42%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-27 06:34
Casumo1.75I 57.14%NM 52.50%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -9.09%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -9.42%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-27 06:35
betPARX1.75I 57.14%NM 52.50%EV -7.09%E -4.05%K -9.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -9.09%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -9.42%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-27 06:34
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 53.20%EV -7.62%E -4.38%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.78%EV -9.09%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -5.59%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-27 07:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 52.64%EV -7.62%E -4.38%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.55%EV -9.09%E -2.14%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -9.42%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-27 06:34
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 52.32%EV -7.62%E -4.38%K -10.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -10.69%E -3.06%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-27 07:44
Marathon Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 53.97%EV -8.15%E -4.71%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -6.95%E -1.60%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -3.04%E -0.800%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-28 00:50
LeoVegas1.73I 57.80%NM 52.65%EV -8.15%E -4.71%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.69%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -9.42%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-26 03:30
Neds1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.15%E -4.71%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -14.43%E -3.61%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.25%E -3.90%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-27 07:45
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.15%E -4.71%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -14.43%E -3.61%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.25%E -3.90%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-27 07:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.15%E -4.71%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -14.43%E -3.61%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.25%E -3.90%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-27 07:44
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -8.15%E -4.71%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -14.43%E -3.61%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.25%E -3.90%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-27 07:45
Virgin Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 52.75%EV -9.21%E -5.39%K -12.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.48%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -10.69%E -3.06%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-27 06:35
LiveScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 52.75%EV -9.21%E -5.39%K -12.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.48%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -10.69%E -3.06%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-27 06:35
SportsBet1.70I 58.82%NM 53.64%EV -9.74%E -5.73%K -13.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -5.59%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-27 07:44
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 51.95%EV -9.74%E -5.73%K -13.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -14.43%E -3.61%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -13.25%E -3.90%K -5.52%G +0.000%13.2%2026-03-25 07:59
FanDuel1.69I 59.17%NM 54.06%EV -10.27%E -6.08%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.25%EV -8.02%E -1.86%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.69%EV -5.59%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-27 07:42
Parions Sport (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 52.18%EV -10.80%E -6.43%K -15.89%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.65%EV -13.36%E -3.30%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.17%EV -14.52%E -4.33%K -6.18%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-27 03:04
Unibet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 52.18%EV -10.80%E -6.43%K -15.89%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.65%EV -13.36%E -3.30%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.17%EV -14.52%E -4.33%K -6.18%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-27 03:04
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 51.95%EV -10.80%E -6.43%K -15.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.38%EV -16.57%E -4.25%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -13.25%E -3.90%K -5.52%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-25 01:14
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -11.34%E -6.79%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -10.16%E -2.42%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -8.14%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-27 07:43
Betclic (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 52.55%EV -11.34%E -6.79%K -16.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.41%EV -12.30%E -3.00%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.04%EV -14.01%E -4.16%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-26 13:40
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 52.10%EV -11.34%E -6.79%K -16.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.31%EV -16.57%E -4.25%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.59%EV -13.25%E -3.90%K -5.52%G +0.000%14.9%2026-03-27 07:44
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 51.49%EV -12.93%E -7.88%K -20.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.52%EV -19.78%E -5.28%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.99%EV -17.07%E -5.25%K -7.59%G +0.000%18.4%2026-03-25 01:14
PMU (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 53.60%EV -17.18%E -11.01%K -30.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.44%EV -16.57%E -4.25%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.96%EV -14.52%E -4.33%K -6.18%G +0.000%19.6%2026-03-27 07:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets1.67I 59.88%NM 51.42%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.74%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.84%16.4%2026-03-25 02:00
Kalshi1.23I 81.30%NM 33.69%1.25I 80.00%NM 33.15%1.25I 80.00%NM 33.15%141.3%2026-03-28 02:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.55%189.4%2026-03-25 20:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.55%189.4%2026-03-25 20:16
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.23%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.55%189.4%2026-03-26 14:09