Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Valladolid CF v Andorra CF

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 16:30 UTC

Final: Real Valladolid CF 1–0 Andorra CF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Valladolid CF (Local)

Prediction 38.99%2.56fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.75%38.97%38.94%40.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.352.352.4546.51%42.48%42.55%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Andorra CF (Visit)

Prediction 32.44%3.08fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -0.889%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.20%32.46%32.38%34.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.792.803.0038.46%35.78%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.56%3.50fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -0.849%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.51%28.57%28.68%29.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.203.4033.33%31.23%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Valladolid CF (Local): 38.99%; Andorra CF (Visit): 32.44%; Draw: 28.56%. For Andorra CF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -2.67%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.47%E -1.82%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.77%EV -2.67%E -0.889%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.33%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-04 08:30
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.76%EV -4.47%E -1.82%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -2.89%E -0.849%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 11:30
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -4.47%E -1.82%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 17:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -5.25%E -2.16%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -6.56%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.74%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 19:50
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -5.25%E -2.16%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -6.56%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.74%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 19:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -5.25%E -2.16%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -6.56%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.74%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 19:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -5.25%E -2.16%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -6.56%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.74%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 19:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -5.25%E -2.16%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -6.56%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -5.74%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 19:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.32%EV -5.64%E -2.33%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.76%EV -5.26%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -11.45%E -3.70%K -5.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 09:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.32%EV -5.64%E -2.33%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.76%EV -5.26%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -11.45%E -3.70%K -5.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 09:20
BetAnything🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.32%EV -5.64%E -2.33%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.76%EV -5.26%E -1.80%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -11.45%E -3.70%K -5.45%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 09:18
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -6.42%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -2.89%E -0.849%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 11:30
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.42%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -5.91%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.74%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 09:14
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -6.42%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -5.91%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 08:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.42%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.74%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 11:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -6.42%E -2.67%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -5.91%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -11.45%E -3.70%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 09:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.03%EV -6.81%E -2.85%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.27%EV -6.24%E -2.16%K -3.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 09:14
Bovada🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -7.20%E -3.02%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -5.91%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.33%EV -10.03%E -3.18%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 08:28
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -7.20%E -3.02%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -5.74%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-31 14:35
BetMGM🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -7.20%E -3.02%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.72%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 09:10
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -7.20%E -3.02%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -11.45%E -3.70%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 09:09
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -7.20%E -3.02%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -14.67%E -5.58%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-04 09:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.75%EV -7.20%E -3.02%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%EV -14.67%E -5.58%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-04 09:10
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.80%EV -7.59%E -3.20%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.20%EV -15.00%E -5.72%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-04 09:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.80%EV -7.59%E -3.20%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.20%EV -15.00%E -5.72%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-04 09:05
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -8.37%E -3.56%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -5.74%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 11:30
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -8.37%E -3.56%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -5.74%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-31 14:40
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -8.37%E -3.56%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -5.74%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-31 14:35
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.90%EV -8.37%E -3.56%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.02%EV -10.03%E -3.18%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 10:10
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.90%EV -8.37%E -3.56%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.02%EV -10.03%E -3.18%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-04 10:10
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -8.37%E -3.56%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.03%E -3.18%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-02 19:50
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -8.37%E -3.56%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.03%E -3.18%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-02 19:54
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -8.37%E -3.56%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.03%E -3.18%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-02 19:50
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -8.37%E -3.56%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -10.03%E -3.18%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-02 19:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.59%EV -9.54%E -4.11%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -6.56%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.52%EV -8.03%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 10:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.21%EV -9.54%E -4.11%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -10.03%E -3.18%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 10:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.35%EV -9.54%E -4.11%K -7.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -11.45%E -3.70%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-02 19:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -4.29%E -1.45%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 12:44
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 08:35
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 08:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -5.74%E -1.74%K -2.50%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-03 16:30
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -8.60%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 08:55
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-31 14:35
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.45%E -3.70%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 08:35
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -11.45%E -3.70%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-02 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -11.45%E -3.70%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-02 19:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.32%E -4.49%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -11.45%E -3.70%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-02 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -12.27%E -5.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -10.78%E -3.92%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.58%EV -7.17%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-04 10:08
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.25%EV -12.27%E -5.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.04%EV -10.03%E -3.18%K -4.66%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-04 10:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.71%EV -12.27%E -5.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -12.40%E -4.59%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -14.31%E -4.77%K -7.16%G +0.000%14.8%2026-09-04 08:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 38.45%EV -13.05%E -5.85%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.98%EV -15.64%E -6.02%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.58%EV -14.31%E -4.77%K -7.16%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-02 19:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.63%EV -16.17%E -7.52%K -14.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.20%EV -9.16%E -3.27%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.18%EV -11.45%E -3.70%K -5.45%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-04 10:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.97%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.94%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.08%2.6%2026-09-04 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.97%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.94%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.08%2.6%2026-09-04 12:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.97%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.94%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.08%2.6%2026-09-04 14:05
Matchbook2.48I 40.32%NM 39.16%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.84%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.99%3.0%2026-09-04 14:30
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 38.82%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.03%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%3.0%2026-09-04 14:30
Smarkets2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.24%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%6.2%2026-09-04 14:30