La escuela de los momios

Real Sociedad B v SD Eibar

Inicio: 2026-04-02 18:04 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Real Sociedad B (Local)

Predicción 28.27%3.54momio equitativo
EV +0.645%
Ventaja +0.181%
Kelly +0.252%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.35%28.21%28.40%29.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.053.233.203.5632.79%30.92%31.25%28.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SD Eibar (Visitante)

Predicción 42.81%2.34momio equitativo
EV -1.54%
Ventaja -0.671%
Kelly -1.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.40%42.79%42.75%44.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.162.152.3050.00%46.40%46.51%43.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.92%3.46momio equitativo
EV -1.67%
Ventaja -0.491%
Kelly -0.695%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.59%29.00%28.85%30.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.163.153.4033.33%31.62%31.75%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle3.56I 28.09%NM 27.14%EV +0.645%E +0.181%K +0.252%G +0.002%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.76%EV -3.25%E -1.44%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.10%EV -7.16%E -2.23%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-02 17:59
Coolbet3.55I 28.17%NM 26.99%EV +0.363%E +0.102%K +0.142%G +0.001%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.59%EV -3.68%E -1.64%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.42%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-02 17:59
1xBet3.53I 28.33%NM 26.91%EV -0.203%E -0.057%K -0.080%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.81%EV -9.25%E -4.36%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.27%EV -2.82%E -0.841%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-02 17:59
Tipico (DE)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -1.05%E -0.300%K -0.420%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-02 17:59
LowVig.ag3.45I 28.99%NM 27.85%EV -2.46%E -0.714%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -2.40%E -1.05%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.02%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-02 17:59
BetOnline.ag3.45I 28.99%NM 27.85%EV -2.46%E -0.714%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -2.40%E -1.05%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.02%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-02 17:59
BetAnything3.45I 28.99%NM 27.85%EV -2.46%E -0.714%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -2.40%E -1.05%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.02%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-02 17:59
Marathon Bet3.42I 29.24%NM 27.28%EV -3.31%E -0.969%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.39%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.34%EV -8.03%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 17:59
FanDuel3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 18:00
SportsBet3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -3.88%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-02 18:00
DraftKings3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-02 18:00
theScore Bet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-02 18:00
William Hill3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-02 18:00
Paddy Power3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -6.71%E -2.03%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -13.24%E -4.41%K -6.62%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-02 18:00
Unibet3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%EV -4.54%E -2.04%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 18:00
Unibet (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%EV -4.54%E -2.04%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 18:00
Svenska Spel3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%EV -4.54%E -2.04%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 18:00
ATG (SE)3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%EV -4.54%E -2.04%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-02 18:00
Betway3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-02 18:00
PlayUp3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -13.24%E -4.41%K -6.62%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-02 18:00
Sky Bet3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -8.12%E -2.50%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -13.24%E -4.41%K -6.62%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-02 18:00
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -1.54%E -0.671%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-02 18:00
NordicBet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -6.68%E -3.06%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-02 17:59
Betsson3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -6.68%E -3.06%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-02 17:59
Mr Green (SE)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-02 17:59
Bet Victor3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -6.01%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-02 17:59
BetMGM3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-02 17:59
Winamax (DE)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -9.53%E -2.98%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -12.24%E -5.97%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-02 18:00
Betr (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -10.95%E -3.47%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -1.67%E -0.491%K -0.695%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-02 17:59
TABtouch3.15I 31.75%NM 28.97%EV -10.95%E -3.47%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.06%EV -7.11%E -3.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.97%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-02 18:00
Grosvenor3.15I 31.75%NM 28.97%EV -10.95%E -3.47%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.06%EV -7.11%E -3.28%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.97%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-02 18:00
Codere (IT)3.15I 31.75%NM 28.93%EV -10.95%E -3.47%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.59%EV -8.39%E -3.92%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-02 18:00
Casumo3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -10.95%E -3.47%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.75%EV -6.68%E -3.06%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-02 18:01
betPARX3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -10.95%E -3.47%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.75%EV -6.68%E -3.06%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-02 18:01
LeoVegas (SE)3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -10.95%E -3.47%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-02 18:00
LeoVegas3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -10.95%E -3.47%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.40%EV -8.39%E -3.92%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.80%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-02 18:00
PointsBet (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -5.82%E -2.65%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-02 17:59
Coral3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-02 18:01
Neds3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-02 17:59
Ladbrokes (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-02 17:59
Ladbrokes (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-02 18:00
LiveScore Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 28.88%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.23%EV -9.25%E -4.36%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.88%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-02 18:00
Virgin Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 28.88%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.23%EV -9.25%E -4.36%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.88%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-02 18:00
Betclic (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.25%EV -12.24%E -5.97%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-02 18:00
BoyleSports3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.44%EV -13.24%E -4.41%K -6.62%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-02 18:00
Unibet (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -12.24%E -5.97%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-02 17:59
Winamax (FR)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -12.36%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -14.38%E -7.19%K -14.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.17%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-02 18:00
PMU (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 28.79%EV -13.77%E -4.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.42%EV -11.39%E -5.50%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.79%EV -11.79%E -3.87%K -5.75%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-02 18:00
NetBet (FR)3.05I 32.79%NM 28.62%EV -13.77%E -4.52%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.22%EV -13.53%E -6.70%K -13.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.16%EV -10.34%E -3.34%K -4.93%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-02 18:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.83%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.54%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.63%0.7%2026-04-02 18:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.76%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-04-02 18:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.65I 27.40%NM 26.99%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.60%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.41%1.5%2026-04-02 18:00
Matchbook3.65I 27.40%NM 26.99%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.60%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.41%1.5%2026-04-02 18:00
Kalshi3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.0%2026-04-02 18:00
Smarkets3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.68%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%3.1%2026-04-02 18:00