Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Oviedo v Leganés

Inicio: 2026-08-22 15:00 UTC

Final: Oviedo 0–1 Leganés

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Oviedo (Local)

Predicción 52.03%1.92momio equitativo
EV -0.628%
Ventaja -0.329%
Kelly -0.690%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.91

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.97%52.00%52.21%54.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.651.791.801.9160.61%55.85%55.56%52.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Leganés (Visitante)

Predicción 19.14%5.22momio equitativo
EV +4.72%
Ventaja +0.863%
Kelly +1.06%
Crecimiento +0.050%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.47

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.32%19.20%19.07%21.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.614.605.4725.64%21.67%21.74%18.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.83%3.47momio equitativo
EV -1.98%
Ventaja -0.583%
Kelly -0.827%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.91%28.79%28.72%29.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.163.153.4033.90%31.68%31.75%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Oviedo (Local): 52.03%; Leganés (Visitante): 19.14%; Empate: 28.83%. Para Leganés (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.22. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.47, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.72%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.79%EV -4.79%E -2.62%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.47I 18.28%NM 17.66%EV +4.72%E +0.863%K +1.06%G +0.050%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.54%EV -5.73%E -1.75%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-22 14:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.00%EV -11.55%E -6.80%K -16.51%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.32%EV +1.47%E +0.277%K +0.341%G +0.005%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 11:59
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.56%EV -8.43%E -4.79%K -11.10%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.79%EV -0.448%E -0.086%K -0.107%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.65%EV -10.06%E -3.22%K -4.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-22 14:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -7.39%E -4.15%K -9.48%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.48%EV -2.36%E -0.463%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -4.87%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 14:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -7.39%E -4.15%K -9.48%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.48%EV -2.36%E -0.463%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -4.87%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 14:35
BetAnything🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.95%EV -7.39%E -4.15%K -9.48%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.48%EV -2.36%E -0.463%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -4.87%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 14:35
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.21%EV -6.35%E -3.53%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.43%EV -2.36%E -0.463%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.37%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 14:48
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.60%EV -4.79%E -2.62%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -4.28%E -0.855%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 13:55
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.60%EV -4.79%E -2.62%K -5.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -4.28%E -0.855%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 11:13
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -6.35%E -3.53%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -4.28%E -0.855%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.15%EV -6.87%E -3.84%K -8.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -4.28%E -0.855%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 14:55
SportsBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.81%EV -7.39%E -4.15%K -9.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -4.28%E -0.855%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 14:49
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.92%EV -4.79%E -2.62%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.71%EV -7.72%E -1.60%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -3.43%E -1.02%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-22 14:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.70%EV -8.43%E -4.79%K -11.10%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -8.11%E -1.69%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 11:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.03%EV -6.35%E -3.53%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -9.06%E -1.91%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 14:44
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.21%EV -8.95%E -5.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -9.06%E -1.91%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 14:49
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.21%EV -8.95%E -5.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -9.06%E -1.91%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 14:50
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.02%EV -9.99%E -5.78%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -9.06%E -1.91%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-22 14:44
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.24%EV -8.95%E -5.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -9.06%E -1.91%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -13.52%E -4.51%K -6.76%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-22 14:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.52%EV -9.99%E -5.78%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.77%EV -9.06%E -1.91%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -13.52%E -4.51%K -6.76%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-22 14:49
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.10%EV -8.95%E -5.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -10.02%E -2.13%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 06:20
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.10%EV -8.95%E -5.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -10.02%E -2.13%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 06:18
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.53%EV -9.47%E -5.44%K -12.80%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.08%EV -10.02%E -2.13%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -12.07%E -3.96%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-22 11:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.60%EV -14.16%E -8.58%K -21.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.47%EV -10.02%E -2.13%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.93%EV -13.52%E -4.51%K -6.76%G +0.000%15.2%2026-08-22 13:59
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.60%EV -7.91%E -4.47%K -10.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -11.93%E -2.59%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 05:54
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.71%EV -6.35%E -3.53%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -11.93%E -2.59%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-22 14:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.89%EV -8.95%E -5.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.74%EV -11.93%E -2.59%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 06:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.32%EV -10.51%E -6.11%K -14.60%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -11.93%E -2.59%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-22 14:34
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.92%EV -8.95%E -5.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -11.93%E -2.59%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.70%EV -13.52%E -4.51%K -6.76%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-22 14:50
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.88%EV -2.71%E -1.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.14%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -1.98%E -0.583%K -0.827%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 14:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.32%EV -2.19%E -1.16%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -4.87%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 14:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -4.79%E -2.62%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.59%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 14:54
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -6.35%E -3.53%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 14:50
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -8.95%E -5.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-22 13:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -8.95%E -5.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-22 13:24
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -8.95%E -5.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-22 13:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -8.95%E -5.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.91%EV -13.85%E -3.08%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-22 13:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.46%EV -0.628%E -0.329%K -0.690%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -15.76%E -3.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-21 13:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.46%EV -0.628%E -0.329%K -0.690%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -15.76%E -3.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -6.31%E -1.94%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-21 13:10
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.16%EV -6.35%E -3.53%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -15.76%E -3.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -4.87%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 04:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.02%EV -6.35%E -3.53%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -15.76%E -3.58%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.52%EV -12.07%E -3.96%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-22 14:34
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -4.79%E -2.62%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -17.10%E -3.95%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.75%E -2.42%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 14:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.44%EV -3.75%E -2.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.52%EV -18.64%E -4.38%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04%EV -9.19%E -2.92%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.44%EV -3.75%E -2.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.52%EV -18.64%E -4.38%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04%EV -9.19%E -2.92%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 14:10
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.44%EV -3.75%E -2.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.52%EV -18.64%E -4.38%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.04%EV -9.19%E -2.92%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 14:10
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.10%EV -4.79%E -2.62%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -21.51%E -5.25%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-21 13:10
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.10%EV -4.79%E -2.62%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -21.51%E -5.25%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-21 13:09
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.10%EV -4.79%E -2.62%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -21.51%E -5.25%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-21 13:09
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.10%EV -4.79%E -2.62%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -21.51%E -5.25%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.63%E -3.43%K -5.06%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-21 13:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.14%EV -5.83%E -3.22%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.69%EV -21.51%E -5.25%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.16%EV -12.07%E -3.96%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-21 13:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -6.35%E -3.53%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.64%EV -21.51%E -5.25%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.08%EV -12.07%E -3.96%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-22 14:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -6.35%E -3.53%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.64%EV -21.51%E -5.25%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.08%EV -12.07%E -3.96%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-22 14:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 48.97%EV -8.95%E -5.12%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.98%EV -25.34%E -6.50%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.05%EV -14.96%E -5.07%K -7.67%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-22 14:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.64%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.09%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%0.5%2026-08-22 14:10
Smarkets◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.78%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.18%0.8%2026-08-22 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.47%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-22 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.47%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-22 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.47%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17%0.8%2026-08-22 14:55
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.95%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.66%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.40%1.9%2026-08-22 13:35