Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Oviedo v Granada CF

Inicio: 2026-08-15 17:00 UTC

Final: Oviedo 0–0 Granada CF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Oviedo (Local)

Predicción 46.99%2.13momio equitativo
EV -5.08%
Ventaja -2.52%
Kelly -4.98%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.45%46.92%47.00%49.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.751.941.952.0257.14%51.62%51.28%49.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Granada CF (Visitante)

Predicción 23.26%4.30momio equitativo
EV +2.35%
Ventaja +0.533%
Kelly +0.690%
Crecimiento +0.016%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.24%23.25%23.27%24.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.704.014.004.4027.03%24.94%25.00%22.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.75%3.36momio equitativo
EV -1.83%
Ventaja -0.553%
Kelly -0.794%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.43%29.82%29.73%31.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.063.003.3034.72%32.72%33.33%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Oviedo (Local): 46.99%; Granada CF (Visitante): 23.26%; Empate: 29.75%. Para Granada CF (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.30. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.40, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.35%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -10.25%E -5.37%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV +2.35%E +0.533%K +0.690%G +0.016%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -10.25%E -5.37%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV +2.35%E +0.533%K +0.690%G +0.016%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 16:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -10.25%E -5.37%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV +2.35%E +0.533%K +0.690%G +0.016%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 16:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -10.25%E -5.37%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV +2.35%E +0.533%K +0.690%G +0.016%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 16:55
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.01%EV -10.25%E -5.37%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV +2.35%E +0.533%K +0.690%G +0.016%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 16:55
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.00%EV -5.08%E -2.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.67%EV +1.88%E +0.429%K +0.556%G +0.010%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.33%EV -9.86%E -3.25%K -4.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 16:55
Pinnacle🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.63%EV -5.08%E -2.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.58%EV -0.911%E -0.214%K -0.280%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.79%EV -3.91%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-15 16:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.05%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -2.31%E -0.549%K -0.721%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -12.24%E -4.15%K -6.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 16:50
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.85%EV -13.07%E -7.06%K -15.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -2.31%E -0.549%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.63%EV -9.26%E -3.04%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 16:20
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.85%EV -13.07%E -7.06%K -15.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -2.31%E -0.549%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.63%EV -9.26%E -3.04%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 16:20
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.85%EV -13.07%E -7.06%K -15.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -2.31%E -0.549%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.63%EV -9.26%E -3.04%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 16:20
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.85%EV -13.07%E -7.06%K -15.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -2.31%E -0.549%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.63%EV -9.26%E -3.04%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.02%EV -14.48%E -7.96%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.24%EV -2.31%E -0.549%K -0.721%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.74%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-15 16:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -8.84%E -4.56%K -9.40%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.50%EV -3.47%E -0.836%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.36%EV -5.40%E -1.70%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 16:54
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -4.63%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-15 16:49
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.42%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -4.63%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.94%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 16:38
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.90%EV -14.95%E -8.26%K -18.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.59%EV -4.63%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.51%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 16:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.90%EV -14.95%E -8.26%K -18.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.59%EV -4.63%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.51%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 16:25
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.38%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.81%EV -5.80%E -1.43%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 16:53
BetAnything🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.38%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.81%EV -5.80%E -1.43%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 16:54
Coolbet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.23%EV -5.08%E -2.52%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.91%EV -1.83%E -0.553%K -0.794%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 16:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.27%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -3.31%E -1.02%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 16:49
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 16:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 16:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -6.29%E -2.00%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 16:49
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 16:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.15%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 16:50
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 16:50
SportsBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.40%EV -6.96%E -3.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 16:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 48.90%EV -17.77%E -10.15%K -23.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.39%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.71%EV -14.32%E -4.97%K -7.62%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-15 16:54
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.78%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -8.12%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -12.24%E -4.15%K -6.28%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:44
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.78%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -8.12%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -12.24%E -4.15%K -6.28%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.89%EV -9.78%E -5.09%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 22.91%EV -8.59%E -2.19%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.21%EV -11.35%E -3.81%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-15 16:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -9.28%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 16:50
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.88%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -9.28%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 16:55
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -9.28%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -7.78%E -2.51%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%EV -6.96%E -3.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.30%EV -9.28%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -12.24%E -4.15%K -6.28%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 16:44
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.51%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.28%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 16:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.42%EV -11.66%E -6.20%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.86%EV -9.28%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 16:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.45%EV -10.25%E -5.37%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.75%EV -9.28%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.80%EV -14.32%E -4.97%K -7.62%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-15 16:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.32%EV -12.13%E -6.49%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -9.28%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.99%EV -12.24%E -4.15%K -6.28%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 16:50
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -10.25%E -5.37%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -11.61%E -3.06%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -4.80%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 16:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.33%EV -7.90%E -4.03%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -11.61%E -3.06%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -9.26%E -3.04%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 16:39
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -10.25%E -5.37%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50%EV -11.61%E -3.06%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 16:54
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.75%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.48%EV -11.61%E -3.06%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.77%EV -13.73%E -4.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-15 16:39
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.75%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.48%EV -11.61%E -3.06%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.77%EV -13.73%E -4.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-15 16:39
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -6.02%E -3.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.77%E -3.41%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 16:49
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.70%EV -6.96%E -3.52%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -12.77%E -3.41%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 16:39
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 16:44
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 16:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -8.37%E -4.29%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 16:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.06%EV -8.84%E -4.56%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.75%E -3.58%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 16:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-08-15 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-08-15 16:55
Matchbook◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.12%0.6%2026-08-15 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.33%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.09%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-08-15 16:45
Smarkets◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.57%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.44%1.1%2026-08-15 16:55
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.56%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.70%1.1%2026-08-15 16:55