Language:English
Málaga v Leganés
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Málaga (Local)
Prediction 46.38%2.16fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -3.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.11%46.44%46.37%47.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.961.962.0755.56%51.07%51.02%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Leganés (Visit)
Prediction 25.68%3.89fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -0.635%
Kelly -0.862%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.70%25.65%25.70%26.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.603.603.8030.30%27.80%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.94%3.58fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.632%
Kelly -0.885%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.17%27.91%27.92%29.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.293.303.5034.72%30.41%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Málaga (Local): 46.38%; Leganés (Visit): 25.68%; Draw: 27.94%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -2.21%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.46%EV -3.99%E -1.93%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.51%EV -3.18%E -0.845%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 28.04%EV -4.17%E -1.22%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-28 02:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.83%EV -4.92%E -2.40%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.74%EV -4.21%E -1.13%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -2.21%E -0.632%K -0.885%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-28 02:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.52%EV -4.92%E -2.40%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -3.70%E -0.986%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-26 22:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.17%EV -4.92%E -2.40%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -4.98%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.25%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-27 17:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.92%E -2.40%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-27 04:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.41%E -0.635%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-28 02:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.41%E -0.635%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-28 02:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-26 22:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.46%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-26 22:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-26 21:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-26 21:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-27 15:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-26 22:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-28 02:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-28 02:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-26 21:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-27 23:48 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-28 02:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -7.24%E -3.62%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -13.39%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-03-26 21:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.84%EV -7.70%E -3.87%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.75%EV -7.04%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -5.01%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-28 02:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.07%EV -8.63%E -4.38%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.57%EV -8.83%E -2.49%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-26 21:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.99%EV -9.09%E -4.64%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.41%E -0.635%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -3.61%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-25 05:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.99%EV -9.09%E -4.64%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.41%E -0.635%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -3.61%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-25 05:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.99%EV -9.09%E -4.64%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.41%E -0.635%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -3.61%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-25 05:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.99%EV -9.09%E -4.64%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.41%E -0.635%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -3.61%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-25 06:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.99%EV -9.09%E -4.64%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.41%E -0.635%K -0.862%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -3.61%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-25 05:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.44%EV -9.09%E -4.64%K -9.47%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.38%EV -11.40%E -3.30%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-28 00:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -9.56%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -4.98%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-28 03:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -9.56%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -4.98%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-28 03:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -9.56%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -4.98%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-27 21:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.56%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-27 22:37 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.56%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-27 15:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.56%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-26 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.56%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-26 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.56%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-26 14:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.56%E -4.90%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.69%E -3.73%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-26 14:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.80%EV -10.95%E -5.70%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -4.98%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-25 06:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.80%EV -10.95%E -5.70%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -4.98%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-25 05:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.80%EV -10.95%E -5.70%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -4.98%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-25 05:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.80%EV -10.95%E -5.70%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -4.98%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-25 06:00 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.54%EV -10.95%E -5.70%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-27 17:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.54%EV -10.95%E -5.70%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-26 21:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.54%EV -10.95%E -5.70%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-27 17:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.93%EV -11.41%E -5.98%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -4.98%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-25 05:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.21%EV -11.41%E -5.98%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -7.55%E -2.10%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -9.20%E -2.83%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-28 03:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.26%EV -11.41%E -5.98%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.50%EV -13.39%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-03-28 03:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 46.28%EV -11.88%E -6.25%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.25%EV -13.97%E -4.17%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -10.60%E -3.31%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-28 00:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.83%EV -12.34%E -6.53%K -13.87%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-25 05:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.97%EV -12.81%E -6.81%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-25 06:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.97%EV -12.81%E -6.81%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -6.27%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -7.80%E -2.36%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-25 05:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 46.13%EV -12.81%E -6.81%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.89%EV -13.97%E -4.17%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.98%EV -13.39%E -4.32%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-03-28 02:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 45.66%EV -15.12%E -8.26%K -18.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.32%EV -15.25%E -4.62%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.01%EV -19.54%E -6.78%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 19.7% | 2026-03-28 00:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.35%EV -16.52%E -9.18%K -20.64%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 24.70%EV -11.40%E -3.30%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 27.94%EV -14.79%E -4.85%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 17.3% | 2026-03-28 00:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.49% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82% | 1.2% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.49% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82% | 1.2% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.49% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82% | 1.2% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.49% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82% | 1.2% | 2026-03-28 03:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.63% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.60% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.76% | 2.9% | 2026-03-28 01:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.59% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19% | 3.0% | 2026-03-28 02:50 |