The School of Odds
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Leganés v Mallorca

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:16 UTC

Final: Leganés 1–1 Mallorca

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leganés (Local)

Prediction 22.00%4.54fair odd
EV -0.100%
Edge -0.022%
Kelly -0.028%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.08%21.97%22.01%25.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.034.104.5429.41%24.79%24.39%22.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mallorca (Visit)

Prediction 50.13%1.99fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.891%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.39%50.18%50.14%52.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.851.851.9660.98%54.05%54.05%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.87%3.59fair odd
EV -1.63%
Edge -0.462%
Kelly -0.644%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.91%27.85%27.85%29.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.283.303.5332.26%30.53%30.30%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leganés (Local): 22.00%; Mallorca (Visit): 50.13%; Draw: 27.87%. For Leganés (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.545. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.540, with an expected value of -0.100%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.54I 22.03%NM 21.27%EV -0.100%E -0.022%K -0.028%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.57%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.16%EV -4.42%E -1.29%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-24 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV -0.980%E -0.218%K -0.280%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.54%EV -13.78%E -8.01%K -19.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 14:10
FanDuel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -3.18%E -0.723%K -0.936%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.77%EV -6.26%E -3.35%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 13:59
1xBet🎯4.37I 22.88%NM 21.74%EV -3.84%E -0.879%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.35%EV -7.26%E -3.93%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.91%EV -1.63%E -0.462%K -0.644%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 14:05
Coolbet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -5.38%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.65%EV -5.76%E -3.06%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -2.47%E -0.705%K -0.987%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 14:14
Fanatics🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.14%EV -5.38%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.85%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 13:54
BetOnline.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -5.38%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.70%EV -5.26%E -2.78%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 14:10
LowVig.ag🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -5.38%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.70%EV -5.26%E -2.78%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 14:10
BetAnything🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -5.38%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.70%EV -5.26%E -2.78%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-24 14:10
DraftKings🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -5.38%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -6.26%E -3.35%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 14:15
SportsBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.42%EV -5.38%E -1.25%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.79%EV -7.26%E -3.93%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.17%EV -6.48%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.92%EV -7.26%E -3.93%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -2.47%E -0.705%K -0.987%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 14:15
Marathon Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -6.48%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.05%EV -6.76%E -3.63%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.04%EV -7.48%E -2.25%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 13:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.48%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -8.26%E -4.52%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 14:14
Betway🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -7.58%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -5.76%E -3.06%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-24 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -7.58%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.76%EV -7.26%E -3.93%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.32%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-24 13:50
betano_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -7.58%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 13:45
Bet Victor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -7.58%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 13:43
BetMGM🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -7.58%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -8.26%E -4.52%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-24 13:45
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -7.58%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -13.61%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 14:00
Neds🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -7.58%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -13.61%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -7.58%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -13.61%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 13:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -7.58%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -13.61%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 13:45
Coral🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -7.58%E -1.81%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -13.61%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 13:45
Bovada🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.24%EV -8.68%E -2.09%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.36%EV -6.26%E -3.35%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-24 14:14
Betsson🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -9.78%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.11%EV -8.77%E -4.82%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 14:00
NordicBet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -9.78%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.11%EV -8.77%E -4.82%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 14:00
Codere (IT)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -9.78%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.11%EV -8.77%E -4.82%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.64%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -9.78%E -2.39%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.51%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -13.61%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-24 14:00
Betclic (FR)🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 22.05%EV -10.88%E -2.69%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.46%EV -11.27%E -6.37%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.48%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 14:00
theScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -11.98%E -3.00%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -8.26%E -4.52%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-24 14:05
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.98%E -3.00%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%EV -8.26%E -4.52%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 14:10
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -11.98%E -3.00%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -7.26%E -3.93%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 13:50
PlayUp🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -11.98%E -3.00%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -7.26%E -3.93%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-24 14:09
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -11.98%E -3.00%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.28%EV -8.26%E -4.52%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -10.83%E -3.38%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 14:04
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -11.98%E -3.00%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -13.61%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.58%EV -15.28%E -3.97%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.33%EV -7.76%E -4.22%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -6.65%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 14:15
Unibet (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 21.79%EV -15.28%E -3.97%K -5.36%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 51.15%EV -17.79%E -10.85%K -27.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.06%EV -13.61%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-24 14:00
NetBet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.87%EV -16.38%E -4.31%K -5.85%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.10%EV -11.27%E -6.37%K -14.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.03%EV -13.61%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-24 14:13
Unibet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -17.48%E -4.66%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.64%EV -1.75%E -0.891%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 13:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -17.48%E -4.66%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.64%EV -1.75%E -0.891%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 13:45
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -17.48%E -4.66%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.64%EV -1.75%E -0.891%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -17.48%E -4.66%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.64%EV -1.75%E -0.891%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.90%EV -17.48%E -4.66%K -6.36%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.64%EV -1.75%E -0.891%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.25%E -1.55%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 13:45
Winamax (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.71%EV -18.58%E -5.02%K -6.88%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.29%EV -10.77%E -6.05%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.00%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-24 14:15
Grosvenor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -20.78%E -5.77%K -7.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 13:45
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -20.78%E -5.77%K -7.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 13:45
Casumo🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -20.78%E -5.77%K -7.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 13:45
betPARX🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -20.78%E -5.77%K -7.99%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -4.25%E -2.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -8.04%E -2.44%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 13:45
LiveScore Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -20.78%E -5.77%K -7.99%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.47%EV -5.26%E -2.78%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 13:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -20.78%E -5.77%K -7.99%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.47%EV -5.26%E -2.78%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.61%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 13:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.12%EV -21.88%E -6.16%K -8.58%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.44%EV -5.76%E -3.06%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.44%EV -9.43%E -2.90%K -4.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 13:45
PMU (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.09%EV -25.19%E -7.41%K -10.49%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 47.39%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.52%EV -13.61%E -4.39%K -6.48%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-24 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.65%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.30%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.05%0.4%2026-10-24 14:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.65%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.30%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.05%0.4%2026-10-24 14:15
Matchbook◎4.60I 21.74%NM 21.40%1.95I 51.28%NM 50.48%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.12%1.6%2026-10-24 14:15
Smarkets◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.10%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.12%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.78%2.8%2026-10-24 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.10%1.94I 51.55%NM 50.12%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.78%2.8%2026-10-24 14:15
Kalshi◎4.55I 21.98%NM 21.33%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.52%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%3.0%2026-10-24 14:10