Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Palmas v Granada CF

Kickoff: 2026-04-02 17:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Palmas (Local)

Prediction 54.94%1.82fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -5.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.14%54.96%54.97%56.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.681.681.7563.69%59.69%59.52%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Granada CF (Visit)

Prediction 17.84%5.60fair odd
EV +5.27%
Edge +0.893%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 5.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.06%17.86%17.86%20.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.085.005.9022.73%19.69%20.00%16.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.22%3.67fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -0.562%
Kelly -0.778%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.63%27.18%27.17%28.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.393.403.6033.33%29.53%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Las Palmas (Local): 54.94%; Granada CF (Visit): 17.84%; Draw: 27.22%. For Granada CF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.60. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.07%EV -7.15%E -4.23%K -10.36%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.06%EV +5.27%E +0.893%K +1.08%G +0.057%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.87%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-02 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.07%EV -7.15%E -4.23%K -10.36%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.06%EV +5.27%E +0.893%K +1.08%G +0.057%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.87%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-02 17:00
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.07%EV -7.15%E -4.23%K -10.36%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.06%EV +5.27%E +0.893%K +1.08%G +0.057%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.87%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-02 16:59
Pinnacle🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.81%EV -4.95%E -2.86%K -6.78%G +0.000%5.87I 17.04%NM 16.45%EV +4.73%E +0.807%K +0.972%G +0.046%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.74%EV -5.29%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-02 16:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.80%EV -10.99%E -6.79%K -17.73%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.14%EV +1.70%E +0.298%K +0.362%G +0.006%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-02 16:57
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.57%EV -6.05%E -3.54%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.28%EV -1.87%E -0.339%K -0.415%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -4.74%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-02 17:00
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.42%EV -7.15%E -4.23%K -10.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.03%EV -1.87%E -0.339%K -0.415%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-02 17:00
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.72%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -1.87%E -0.339%K -0.415%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 17:00
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.70%EV -7.15%E -4.23%K -10.36%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.28%EV -4.54%E -0.849%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.19%E -3.09%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 16:53
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.50%EV -4.40%E -2.53%K -5.95%G +0.000%5.29I 18.90%NM 17.93%EV -5.61%E -1.06%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.57%EV -6.38%E -1.85%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-02 16:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.19%EV -7.15%E -4.23%K -10.36%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -6.33%E -1.21%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -6.11%E -1.77%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-02 17:00
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.38%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.43%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.61%EV -6.33%E -1.21%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -10.19%E -3.09%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 17:00
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.94%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.32%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.92%EV -8.11%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-02 17:00
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.94%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.32%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.92%EV -8.11%E -1.58%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-02 16:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.89%EV -5.50%E -3.20%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.51%EV -9.00%E -1.77%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -3.38%E -0.953%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-02 17:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.89%EV -5.50%E -3.20%K -7.64%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.51%EV -9.00%E -1.77%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -3.38%E -0.953%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-02 17:00
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.04%EV -6.05%E -3.54%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -9.00%E -1.77%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -3.38%E -0.953%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-02 17:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.04%EV -6.05%E -3.54%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -9.00%E -1.77%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -3.38%E -0.953%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-02 17:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.04%EV -6.05%E -3.54%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV -9.00%E -1.77%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -3.38%E -0.953%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-02 17:00
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.46%EV -3.85%E -2.20%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.48%EV -2.02%E -0.562%K -0.778%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-02 16:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -6.05%E -3.54%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-02 17:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 16:59
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.86%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -6.11%E -1.77%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-02 17:00
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.86%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -6.11%E -1.77%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-02 17:00
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.86%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -6.11%E -1.77%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-02 17:00
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.86%EV -7.70%E -4.58%K -11.32%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -6.11%E -1.77%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-02 17:00
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-02 17:00
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.05%EV -7.15%E -4.23%K -10.36%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.19%E -3.09%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-02 16:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.17%EV -10.99%E -6.79%K -17.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -3.38%E -0.953%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-02 17:00
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -9.35%E -5.66%K -14.38%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-02 16:59
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.44%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -12.91%E -4.03%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-02 17:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.72%EV -8.80%E -5.30%K -13.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -8.83%E -2.63%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-02 17:00
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.10%EV -10.99%E -6.79%K -17.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.05%EV -10.19%E -3.09%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-02 17:01
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.10%EV -10.99%E -6.79%K -17.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.05%EV -10.19%E -3.09%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-02 16:58
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.87%EV -10.99%E -6.79%K -17.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.35%EV -11.55%E -3.55%K -5.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-02 17:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.26%EV -13.19%E -8.35%K -22.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.46%EV -10.79%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.28%EV -12.91%E -4.03%K -5.87%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-02 17:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.28%EV -5.50%E -3.20%K -7.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.05%EV -12.57%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.74%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-02 16:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.80%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.68%EV -12.57%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -6.11%E -1.77%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-02 17:00
LeoVegas🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.73%EV -8.80%E -5.30%K -13.33%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.54%EV -12.57%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-02 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.03%EV -9.90%E -6.03%K -15.46%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.42%EV -12.57%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-02 17:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.03%EV -9.90%E -6.03%K -15.46%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.42%EV -12.57%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.55%EV -7.47%E -2.20%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-02 17:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.05%EV -11.54%E -7.17%K -18.92%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -12.57%E -2.57%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.86%EV -10.19%E -3.09%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-02 17:00
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.14%EV -6.60%E -3.88%K -9.43%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.63%EV -13.46%E -2.78%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.23%EV -12.91%E -4.03%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-02 17:00
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.48%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -14.36%E -2.99%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.91%E -4.03%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-02 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.48%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -14.36%E -2.99%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.91%E -4.03%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-02 16:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.48%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.61%EV -14.36%E -2.99%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.91%E -4.03%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-02 17:00
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.30%EV -6.05%E -3.54%K -8.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -15.25%E -3.21%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -3.38%E -0.953%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-02 17:00
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.83%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.93%EV -15.25%E -3.21%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.19%E -3.09%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-02 17:01
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.52%EV -8.80%E -5.30%K -13.33%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.25%EV -16.14%E -3.43%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -6.11%E -1.77%K -2.49%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-02 17:00
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.50%EV -8.25%E -4.94%K -12.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -17.93%E -3.90%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -10.19%E -3.09%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-02 17:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 53.41%EV -13.74%E -8.75%K -24.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.64%EV -19.71%E -4.38%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.95%EV -18.35%E -6.12%K -9.18%G +0.000%19.2%2026-04-02 17:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.70%EV -9.90%E -6.03%K -15.46%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.01%EV -21.49%E -4.88%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.29%EV -8.83%E -2.63%K -3.76%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-02 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.11%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.03%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.86%0.6%2026-04-02 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.11%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.03%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.86%0.6%2026-04-02 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.72I 58.14%NM 57.60%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.42%0.9%2026-04-02 17:00
Matchbook1.72I 58.14%NM 57.30%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.42%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.28%1.5%2026-04-02 17:01
Smarkets1.71I 58.48%NM 57.33%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.81%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.86%2.0%2026-04-02 17:00
Kalshi1.69I 59.17%NM 57.33%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.48%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.2%2026-04-02 17:00