Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Granada CF v Sporting Gijón

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 19:04 UTC

Final: Granada CF 1–2 Sporting Gijón

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Granada CF (Local)

Prediction 39.72%2.52fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.929%
Kelly -1.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.78%39.69%39.72%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.302.302.4645.87%43.40%43.48%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sporting Gijón (Visit)

Prediction 32.92%3.04fair odd
EV -0.568%
Edge -0.188%
Kelly -0.281%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.28%32.98%32.90%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.802.803.0241.67%35.73%35.71%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.35%3.66fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -0.579%
Kelly -0.803%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.52%27.32%27.37%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.313.303.5834.72%30.22%30.30%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Granada CF (Local): 39.72%; Sporting Gijón (Visit): 32.92%; Draw: 27.35%. For Sporting Gijón (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.02, with an expected value of -0.568%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.24%EV -2.29%E -0.929%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.09%EV -9.13%E -3.31%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -7.00%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-30 18:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.24%EV -2.29%E -0.929%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.09%EV -9.13%E -3.31%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.67%EV -7.00%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-30 19:00
Pinnacle🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.73%EV -3.87%E -1.60%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.04%EV -4.19%E -1.44%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.24%EV -3.44%E -0.974%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-30 18:59
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.56%EV -4.67%E -1.95%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 18:59
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -4.67%E -1.95%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -9.46%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.00%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 18:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.20%EV -5.46%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.20%EV -7.48%E -2.66%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.60%EV -7.54%E -2.23%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 18:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -5.46%E -2.30%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-30 18:59
Bovada🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.02%EV -6.26%E -2.65%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -9.46%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -8.36%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-30 18:58
BetAnything🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.02%EV -6.26%E -2.65%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -9.46%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -8.36%E -2.50%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-30 18:59
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -6.65%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -5.63%E -1.63%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -6.65%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -4.26%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-30 18:59
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.65%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -7.00%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-30 19:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -6.65%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -7.00%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-30 18:59
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.29%EV -6.65%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.74%EV -7.15%E -2.54%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-30 18:59
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.29%EV -6.65%E -2.83%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.74%EV -7.15%E -2.54%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-30 18:59
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -1.23%E -0.409%K -0.613%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -1.23%E -0.409%K -0.613%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 19:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -1.23%E -0.409%K -0.613%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 19:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -1.23%E -0.409%K -0.613%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 19:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%EV -7.45%E -3.20%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -1.23%E -0.409%K -0.613%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 19:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 39.20%EV -8.24%E -3.57%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.93%EV -9.46%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.86%EV -11.10%E -3.42%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-30 19:00
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -4.52%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.00%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-30 19:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -7.00%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-30 19:00
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.46%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.00%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-30 18:59
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-30 18:59
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -11.10%E -3.42%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-30 19:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -9.46%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.10%E -3.42%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-30 19:00
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-30 19:00
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-30 18:59
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -13.74%E -5.24%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-30 19:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.68%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.95%EV -13.74%E -5.24%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -11.10%E -3.42%K -4.93%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-30 19:00
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.56%EV -8.64%E -3.76%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -13.41%E -5.10%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.72%EV -12.47%E -3.90%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-30 19:00
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.20%EV -9.44%E -4.14%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -4.52%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.10%E -3.42%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 19:00
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.20%EV -9.44%E -4.14%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -4.52%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.10%E -3.42%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 19:00
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.20%EV -9.44%E -4.14%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -4.52%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.10%E -3.42%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 19:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.20%EV -9.44%E -4.14%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -4.52%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.10%E -3.42%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 19:00
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.20%EV -9.44%E -4.14%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -4.52%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.10%E -3.42%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-30 19:00
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.02%EV -10.23%E -4.53%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.45%EV -0.568%E -0.188%K -0.281%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.53%EV -2.07%E -0.579%K -0.803%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-30 18:59
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -7.00%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-30 19:00
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -4.52%E -1.56%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -12.47%E -3.90%K -5.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-30 19:00
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -9.46%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.00%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-30 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -7.00%E -2.06%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-30 19:00
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-30 19:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-30 18:59
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-30 18:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 36.78%EV -10.63%E -4.72%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.48%EV -20.98%E -8.74%K -14.99%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.74%EV -21.22%E -7.37%K -11.29%G +0.000%20.8%2026-05-30 19:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.33%EV -11.42%E -5.12%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.56%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -12.47%E -3.90%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-30 19:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.33%EV -11.42%E -5.12%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.56%EV -6.17%E -2.16%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -12.47%E -3.90%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-30 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.98%EV -11.42%E -5.12%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.42%EV -9.46%E -3.44%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.60%EV -11.65%E -3.61%K -5.22%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-30 18:58
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -12.61%E -5.73%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.10%E -4.11%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -9.73%E -2.95%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-30 19:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.55%EV -12.61%E -5.73%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.83%EV -12.75%E -4.81%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.62%EV -13.83%E -4.39%K -6.43%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-30 18:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.55%EV -12.61%E -5.73%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.83%EV -12.75%E -4.81%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.62%EV -13.83%E -4.39%K -6.43%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-30 19:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.29%EV -13.41%E -6.15%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.37%EV -7.81%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -15.20%E -4.90%K -7.24%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-30 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.88%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.85%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.27%0.5%2026-05-30 19:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.84%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.29%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%0.6%2026-05-30 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.56I 39.06%NM 38.79%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.01%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.21%0.7%2026-05-30 19:00
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 39.12%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.23%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65%1.4%2026-05-30 19:00
Smarkets2.52I 39.68%NM 38.70%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.58%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.72%2.5%2026-05-30 19:00
Kalshi2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.95%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.20%3.0%2026-05-30 19:00