Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Granada CF v Mallorca

Inicio: 2026-08-24 19:30 UTC

Final: Granada CF 2–0 Mallorca

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Granada CF (Local)

Predicción 31.53%3.17momio equitativo
EV +1.84%
Ventaja +0.571%
Kelly +0.827%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.41%31.45%31.47%32.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.942.943.2335.71%33.99%34.01%30.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Mallorca (Visitante)

Predicción 37.66%2.66momio equitativo
EV -3.59%
Ventaja -1.40%
Kelly -2.30%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.73%37.70%37.69%39.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.432.422.5643.48%41.18%41.32%39.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 30.81%3.25momio equitativo
EV -2.96%
Ventaja -0.938%
Kelly -1.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.99%30.85%30.83%32.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.972.953.1535.71%33.67%33.90%31.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Granada CF (Local): 31.53%; Mallorca (Visitante): 37.66%; Empate: 30.81%. Para Granada CF (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.17. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.23, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.84%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.41%EV +1.84%E +0.571%K +0.827%G +0.015%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.61%EV -7.35%E -2.99%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.98%EV -8.50%E -2.86%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-24 19:19
Pinnacle🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 30.85%EV -0.993%E -0.316%K -0.464%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.99%EV -3.96%E -1.55%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.15%EV -4.19%E -1.35%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-24 19:19
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -2.25%E -0.727%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.14%EV -11.50%E -4.89%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -9.12%E -3.09%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-24 11:49
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.83%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -8.48%E -3.49%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 18:44
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.83%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -8.48%E -3.49%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 18:44
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.83%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -8.48%E -3.49%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 18:44
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.83%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -8.48%E -3.49%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 18:44
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -3.83%E -1.26%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -8.48%E -3.49%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 18:44
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.72%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.07%EV -5.85%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -2.96%E -0.938%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-24 19:09
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -5.85%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -9.12%E -3.09%K -4.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-24 18:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -7.73%E -3.15%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -10.66%E -3.68%K -5.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-24 18:44
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.94%EV -8.86%E -3.66%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%EV -10.04%E -3.44%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-24 12:28
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -5.41%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.94%EV -8.86%E -3.66%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%EV -10.04%E -3.44%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-24 12:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.60%EV -6.04%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.79%EV -3.59%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.60%EV -8.19%E -2.75%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 19:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.60%EV -6.04%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.79%EV -3.59%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.60%EV -8.19%E -2.75%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 19:20
BetAnything🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.60%EV -6.04%E -2.03%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.79%EV -3.59%E -1.40%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.60%EV -8.19%E -2.75%K -4.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 19:19
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.01%EV -6.98%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.03%EV -3.96%E -1.55%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -6.04%E -1.98%K -2.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-24 19:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -6.98%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.85%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-24 19:10
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -6.98%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -7.73%E -3.15%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -10.66%E -3.68%K -5.61%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-24 18:49
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -6.98%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -11.50%E -4.89%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -9.12%E -3.09%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-24 18:44
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -6.98%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -11.50%E -4.89%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -9.12%E -3.09%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-24 18:44
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -6.98%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -11.50%E -4.89%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -9.12%E -3.09%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-24 18:44
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -6.98%E -2.37%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -11.50%E -4.89%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.72%EV -9.12%E -3.09%K -4.68%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-24 18:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 31.71%EV -7.30%E -2.48%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.00%EV -5.09%E -2.02%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.29%EV -8.19%E -2.75%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-24 19:19
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.85%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-24 18:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -7.73%E -3.15%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-24 19:09
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -5.85%E -2.34%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -7.58%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-24 19:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.61%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -7.58%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-24 12:29
betano_uk🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.61%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -7.58%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-24 18:59
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.61%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -7.58%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-24 18:59
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.61%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -7.58%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-24 19:09
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.06%EV -8.56%E -2.95%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -7.73%E -3.15%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -13.74%E -4.91%K -7.63%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-24 19:23
Bovada🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.01%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 36.73%EV -5.47%E -2.18%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.25%EV -9.12%E -3.09%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-24 19:18
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.65%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -9.61%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.38%EV -7.58%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-24 19:10
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.78%EV -10.37%E -4.36%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.00%EV -10.66%E -3.68%K -5.61%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-24 11:54
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -9.61%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -13.74%E -4.91%K -7.63%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-24 18:49
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -9.61%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -13.74%E -4.91%K -7.63%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-24 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.97%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -9.61%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -13.74%E -4.91%K -7.63%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-24 19:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.81%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -13.38%E -5.82%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.66%E -3.68%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-24 18:44
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.81%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -13.38%E -5.82%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.66%E -3.68%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-24 18:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.81%EV -9.19%E -3.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.58%EV -13.38%E -5.82%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -10.66%E -3.68%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-24 18:44
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -10.14%E -3.56%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.85%EV -9.61%E -4.01%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -7.58%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-24 18:44
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -10.14%E -3.56%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -7.73%E -3.15%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -10.66%E -3.68%K -5.61%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-24 19:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -11.71%E -4.18%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -10.37%E -4.36%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.66%E -3.68%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-24 18:44
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -11.71%E -4.18%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -10.37%E -4.36%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.66%E -3.68%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-24 18:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -11.71%E -4.18%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.54%EV -10.74%E -4.53%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -10.66%E -3.68%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-24 18:44
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -11.71%E -4.18%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.54%EV -10.74%E -4.53%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -10.66%E -3.68%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-24 18:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%0.6%2026-08-24 19:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%0.6%2026-08-24 19:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%0.6%2026-08-24 19:24
Matchbook◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%0.6%2026-08-24 19:24
Smarkets◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.98%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.55%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.47%0.9%2026-08-24 19:10
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.68%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66%1.0%2026-08-24 18:34