Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Girona FC v Albacete

2026-09-25 18:30 UTC — La Liga 2 - Spain

Resultado del partido

41 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Girona FC (Local)

Predicción 59.21%1.69momio equitativo
EV -4.07%
Ventaja -2.51%
Kelly -6.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.84%59.23%59.22%60.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.411.551.571.6270.92%64.64%63.69%61.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Albacete (Visitante)

Predicción 18.65%5.36momio equitativo
EV +2.57%
Ventaja +0.467%
Kelly +0.571%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.27%18.61%18.60%20.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.404.965.005.5022.73%20.17%20.00%18.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.14%4.52momio equitativo
EV -2.82%
Ventaja -0.642%
Kelly -0.831%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.39

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.55%22.16%22.18%23.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.654.014.004.3927.40%24.91%25.00%22.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Girona FC (Local): 59.21%; Albacete (Visitante): 18.65%; Empate: 22.14%. Para Albacete (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 5.36. 6 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 5.50, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +2.57%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (41 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.43%EV -6.44%E -4.08%K -11.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV +2.57%E +0.467%K +0.571%G +0.015%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.21%EV -4.81%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-19 20:29
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.41%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV +0.706%E +0.131%K +0.160%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-19 19:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.41%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV +0.706%E +0.131%K +0.160%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-19 19:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.41%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV +0.706%E +0.131%K +0.160%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-19 19:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.41%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV +0.706%E +0.131%K +0.160%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-19 19:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.41%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV +0.706%E +0.131%K +0.160%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-19 19:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.78%EV -6.44%E -4.08%K -11.11%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -2.09%E -0.398%K -0.492%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.23%EV -5.92%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 20:29
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.31%EV -4.07%E -2.51%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.11I 19.57%NM 18.80%EV -4.70%E -0.920%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.89%EV -2.82%E -0.642%K -0.831%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-19 20:34
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.29%EV -8.22%E -5.30%K -14.94%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.02%EV -4.89%E -0.959%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.69%EV -10.34%E -2.55%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 20:30
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.29%EV -8.22%E -5.30%K -14.94%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.02%EV -4.89%E -0.959%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.69%EV -10.34%E -2.55%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 20:29
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.40%EV -10.00%E -6.58%K -19.22%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.00%EV -4.89%E -0.959%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -5.92%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-19 20:35
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.40%EV -10.59%E -7.01%K -20.76%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -4.89%E -0.959%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -7.02%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-19 20:29
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.76%EV -8.81%E -5.72%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.74%EV -4.89%E -0.959%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -14.77%E -3.84%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 19:24
TABtouch🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.76%EV -8.81%E -5.72%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.74%EV -4.89%E -0.959%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -14.77%E -3.84%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 19:25
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.76%EV -8.81%E -5.72%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.74%EV -4.89%E -0.959%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -14.77%E -3.84%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 19:25
betPARX🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.76%EV -8.81%E -5.72%K -16.32%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.74%EV -4.89%E -0.959%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -14.77%E -3.84%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 19:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.89%EV -10.00%E -6.58%K -19.22%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.55%EV -4.89%E -0.959%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.88%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-19 19:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.89%EV -10.00%E -6.58%K -19.22%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.55%EV -4.89%E -0.959%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -15.88%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-19 19:24
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.21%EV -5.26%E -3.29%K -8.76%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.76%EV -5.82%E -1.15%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.03%EV -4.81%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-19 20:25
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.25%EV -5.85%E -3.68%K -9.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -6.75%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -4.81%E -1.12%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-19 20:29
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.75%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -7.02%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 20:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.56%EV -7.63%E -4.89%K -13.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -6.75%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -5.92%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-19 20:30
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -6.75%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 20:24
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -11.18%E -7.45%K -22.36%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -6.75%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -7.02%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-19 20:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 58.85%EV -10.59%E -7.01%K -20.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -6.75%E -1.35%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.38%EV -15.88%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-19 19:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.71%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.81%EV -8.62%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -9.24%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 20:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.71%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.81%EV -8.62%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -9.24%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 20:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.18%EV -8.81%E -5.72%K -16.32%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -8.62%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -9.24%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-19 20:34
PMU (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 59.06%EV -14.14%E -9.75%K -31.42%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.48%EV -8.62%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.46%EV -19.20%E -5.26%K -7.25%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-19 19:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.69%EV -5.26%E -3.29%K -8.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -10.48%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-19 20:20
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.82%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -10.48%E -2.18%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.27%EV -13.67%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 20:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 58.97%EV -11.77%E -7.90%K -24.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.50%EV -11.42%E -2.40%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.53%EV -13.67%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-19 20:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.03%EV -10.00%E -6.58%K -19.22%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.09%EV -12.35%E -2.63%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -9.24%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-19 20:29
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.00%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -14.21%E -3.09%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -9.24%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-19 20:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.54%EV -11.18%E -7.45%K -22.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -16.08%E -3.57%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.95%EV -11.45%E -2.86%K -3.82%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-19 20:29
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.87%EV -11.18%E -7.45%K -22.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.29%EV -16.08%E -3.57%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.84%EV -15.88%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-19 20:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 59.02%EV -16.51%E -11.71%K -40.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.49%EV -16.08%E -3.57%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.49%EV -18.09%E -4.89%K -6.70%G +0.000%20.2%2026-09-19 20:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.84%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.28%EV -17.94%E -4.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.88%EV -13.67%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-19 20:35
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.84%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.28%EV -17.94%E -4.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.88%EV -13.67%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-19 20:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.84%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.28%EV -17.94%E -4.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.88%EV -13.67%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-19 20:35
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.84%EV -7.03%E -4.48%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.28%EV -17.94%E -4.08%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.88%EV -13.67%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-19 20:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.48I 67.57%NM 58.02%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.08%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.90%16.5%2026-09-19 20:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.23I 81.30%NM 32.07%1.23I 81.30%NM 32.07%1.10I 90.91%NM 35.86%153.5%2026-09-19 20:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.23I 81.30%NM 32.07%1.23I 81.30%NM 32.07%1.10I 90.91%NM 35.86%153.5%2026-09-19 20:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.23I 81.30%NM 32.07%1.23I 81.30%NM 32.07%1.10I 90.91%NM 35.86%153.5%2026-09-19 20:25