Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Celta Fortuna v SD Eibar

Início: 2026-09-14 18:30 UTC

Final: Celta Fortuna 0–4 SD Eibar

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

49 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Celta Fortuna (Local)

Previsão 27.85%3.59odd justa
EV +0.810%
Vantagem +0.224%
Kelly +0.309%
Crescimento +0.003%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.62

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.24%27.80%27.87%30.68%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.803.223.203.6235.71%31.10%31.25%27.62%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

SD Eibar (Visitante)

Previsão 43.39%2.30odd justa
EV -1.08%
Vantagem -0.472%
Kelly -0.840%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.28

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
40.59%43.47%43.40%45.92%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.002.142.152.2850.00%46.66%46.51%43.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.76%3.48odd justa
EV -2.20%
Vantagem -0.648%
Kelly -0.918%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.83%28.73%28.73%29.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.183.153.4033.33%31.46%31.75%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Celta Fortuna (Local): 27.85%; SD Eibar (Visitante): 43.39%; Empate: 28.76%. Para Celta Fortuna (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.59. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.62, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.810%.

Odds das casas de apostas (49 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 26.71%EV +0.810%E +0.224%K +0.309%G +0.003%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.16%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.13%EV -4.50%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-14 18:15
FanDuel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -2.53%E -0.723%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-14 18:19
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -2.53%E -0.723%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -13.22%E -6.61%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-14 18:26
DraftKings🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -3.92%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -6.72%E -3.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 18:00
LowVig.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -3.92%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -5.41%E -2.48%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -9.39%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 18:10
BetOnline.ag🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -3.92%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -5.41%E -2.48%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -9.39%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 18:09
BetAnything🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -3.92%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -5.41%E -2.48%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -9.39%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-14 18:10
Bovada🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -3.92%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -9.39%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-14 18:14
SportsBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -3.92%E -1.14%K -1.60%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -10.19%E -4.92%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -9.39%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-14 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 27.21%EV -4.76%E -1.39%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.89%EV -8.02%E -3.78%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.90%EV -7.38%E -2.29%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 18:25
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.72%E -3.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-14 18:05
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-14 18:05
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -5.32%E -1.56%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -13.22%E -6.61%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-14 18:20
Sky Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -11.05%E -5.39%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -13.71%E -4.57%K -6.85%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-14 18:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -8.10%E -2.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -13.22%E -6.61%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-14 18:20
1xBet🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 28.97%EV -8.66%E -2.64%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.23%EV -2.38%E -1.06%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-14 18:25
Betr (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -2.20%E -0.648%K -0.918%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-14 18:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -6.72%E -3.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-14 18:05
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.72%E -3.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-14 17:35
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -6.72%E -3.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-14 17:35
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -9.49%E -2.92%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-14 18:20
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -6.72%E -3.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-14 18:20
theScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -6.72%E -3.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-14 05:20
Bet Victor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 18:25
betano_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -6.52%E -2.01%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-14 18:24
William Hill🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -6.72%E -3.12%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-14 18:05
Codere (IT)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.35%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.39%EV -7.15%E -3.34%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-14 17:35
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 18:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 18:05
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 18:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -10.89%E -3.40%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 18:05
Betclic (FR)🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 28.20%EV -11.72%E -3.70%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.97%EV -9.75%E -4.69%K -9.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-14 18:06
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -12.28%E -3.90%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-14 17:35
Unibet (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.72%EV -12.28%E -3.90%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.66%EV -13.22%E -6.61%K -13.22%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.63%EV -12.27%E -4.02%K -5.99%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-14 18:05
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -9.39%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-14 17:35
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -13.67%E -4.41%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -11.05%E -5.39%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -7.96%E -2.49%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-14 18:25
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -15.06%E -4.94%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -1.08%E -0.472%K -0.840%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-14 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -15.06%E -4.94%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -1.08%E -0.472%K -0.840%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-14 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -15.06%E -4.94%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -1.08%E -0.472%K -0.840%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-14 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -15.06%E -4.94%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.01%EV -1.08%E -0.472%K -0.840%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -5.08%E -1.54%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-14 17:55
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -17.85%E -6.05%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.59%EV -3.24%E -1.45%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -9.39%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 17:40
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -17.85%E -6.05%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.59%EV -3.24%E -1.45%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -9.39%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 17:41
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -17.85%E -6.05%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.59%EV -3.24%E -1.45%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -9.39%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 17:41
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -17.85%E -6.05%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.59%EV -3.24%E -1.45%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -9.39%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-14 17:41
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.51%EV -17.85%E -6.05%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -9.39%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 17:56
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.51%EV -17.85%E -6.05%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -4.55%E -2.07%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.57%EV -9.39%E -2.98%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-14 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.62%EV -19.24%E -6.63%K -10.13%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.73%EV -5.41%E -2.48%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.65%EV -10.83%E -3.49%K -5.16%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-14 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.61%EV -22.03%E -7.87%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.82%EV -8.88%E -4.23%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -13.71%E -4.57%K -6.85%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-14 17:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.73%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-09-14 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.73%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%0.7%2026-09-14 18:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.67%1.1%2026-09-14 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.96%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.67%1.1%2026-09-14 18:26
Smarkets◎3.80I 26.32%NM 25.90%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.15%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.95%1.6%2026-09-14 18:26
Kalshi◎3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.14%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.0%2026-09-14 18:26