Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

CD Castellón v Córdoba

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 16:30 UTC

Final: CD Castellón 1–2 Córdoba

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CD Castellón (Local)

Prediction 64.97%1.54fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -8.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.64%65.00%64.98%66.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.421.421.4875.19%70.55%70.42%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Córdoba (Visit)

Prediction 15.70%6.37fair odd
EV +2.02%
Edge +0.311%
Kelly +0.368%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.54%15.70%15.57%17.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.765.756.5019.61%17.36%17.39%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.33%5.17fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.273%
Kelly -0.340%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.15%19.31%19.45%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.664.605.1026.67%21.47%21.74%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CD Castellón (Local): 64.97%; Córdoba (Visit): 15.70%; Draw: 19.33%. For Córdoba (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.37. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -7.74%E -5.45%K -18.44%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV +2.02%E +0.311%K +0.368%G +0.007%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -3.33%E -0.665%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-02 09:05
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.04%EV -5.14%E -3.52%K -11.18%G +0.000%6.42I 15.58%NM 15.02%EV +0.768%E +0.120%K +0.142%G +0.001%5.09I 19.65%NM 18.94%EV -1.59%E -0.312%K -0.388%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-02 16:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.60%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.57%EV +0.454%E +0.071%K +0.084%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.84%EV -4.29%E -0.867%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 16:20
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.86%EV -6.44%E -4.48%K -14.65%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.17%EV -1.90%E -0.304%K -0.362%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV -3.33%E -0.665%K -0.831%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 15:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.92%EV -7.74%E -5.45%K -18.44%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.98%EV -1.90%E -0.304%K -0.362%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.10%EV -5.26%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 15:45
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.22%EV -5.14%E -3.52%K -11.18%G +0.000%6.02I 16.61%NM 15.82%EV -5.51%E -0.915%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.02I 19.92%NM 18.97%EV -2.94%E -0.585%K -0.731%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 16:19
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.19%EV -6.44%E -4.48%K -14.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.16%EV -5.26%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 08:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -6.44%E -4.48%K -14.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -7.19%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 06:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -6.44%E -4.48%K -14.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -7.19%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 06:06
BetAnything🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -6.44%E -4.48%K -14.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -7.19%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 06:05
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.96%EV -7.09%E -4.96%K -16.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -8.16%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 15:45
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.32%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -1.39%E -0.273%K -0.340%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 16:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.12%EV -7.74%E -5.45%K -18.44%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -8.16%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 15:46
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -6.44%E -4.48%K -14.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 16:25
Bovada🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.70%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.97%EV -6.23%E -1.28%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 16:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -8.16%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-02 16:20
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 09:06
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 06:04
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -11.64%E -8.56%K -32.34%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -3.33%E -0.665%K -0.831%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 16:25
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -13.59%E -10.22%K -41.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -5.82%E -0.971%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -8.16%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-02 16:24
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.42%EV -3.85%E -2.60%K -8.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -8.96%E -1.55%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 16:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.42%EV -3.85%E -2.60%K -8.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -8.96%E -1.55%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 15:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.42%EV -3.85%E -2.60%K -8.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -8.96%E -1.55%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 15:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.42%EV -3.85%E -2.60%K -8.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -8.96%E -1.55%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 15:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.42%EV -3.85%E -2.60%K -8.01%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -8.96%E -1.55%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 15:40
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.69%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.62%EV -8.96%E -1.55%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 16:20
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.61%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -9.75%E -1.70%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-02 16:20
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.27%EV -11.64%E -8.56%K -32.34%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -9.75%E -1.70%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 16:25
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.28%EV -6.44%E -4.48%K -14.65%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.24%EV -10.53%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -8.16%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 12:15
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.28%EV -6.44%E -4.48%K -14.65%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.24%EV -10.53%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -8.16%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 12:16
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.55%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.10%EV -10.53%E -1.85%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -3.33%E -0.665%K -0.831%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 16:15
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.41%EV -6.44%E -4.48%K -14.65%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -12.10%E -2.16%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 15:40
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.41%EV -6.44%E -4.48%K -14.65%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -12.10%E -2.16%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 15:40
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.41%EV -6.44%E -4.48%K -14.65%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -12.10%E -2.16%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 15:55
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.41%EV -6.44%E -4.48%K -14.65%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -12.10%E -2.16%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 15:40
LeoVegas🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.57%EV -7.09%E -4.96%K -16.50%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -12.10%E -2.16%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 15:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.57%EV -7.09%E -4.96%K -16.50%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -12.10%E -2.16%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 15:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.01%EV -7.74%E -5.45%K -18.44%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -12.10%E -2.16%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-02 12:15
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.66%EV -7.09%E -4.96%K -16.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -13.67%E -2.49%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.25%EV -7.74%E -5.45%K -18.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -13.67%E -2.49%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.41%EV -14.93%E -3.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 15:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.25%EV -7.74%E -5.45%K -18.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -13.67%E -2.49%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.41%EV -14.93%E -3.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-02 15:40
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -13.67%E -2.49%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 10:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.18%EV -9.69%E -6.97%K -24.85%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.22%EV -13.67%E -2.49%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.61%EV -12.03%E -2.64%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 16:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.15%EV -12.94%E -9.66%K -38.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.87%EV -13.67%E -2.49%K -3.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.98%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-02 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 62.64%EV -13.59%E -10.22%K -41.18%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.15%EV -13.67%E -2.49%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.22%EV -27.49%E -7.33%K -10.00%G +0.000%20.0%2026-05-02 16:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.15%EV -7.74%E -5.45%K -18.44%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV -15.24%E -2.82%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -7.19%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 12:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.01%EV -10.34%E -7.49%K -27.22%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.36%EV -15.24%E -2.82%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-02 16:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.58%EV -10.34%E -7.49%K -27.22%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.25%EV -15.24%E -2.82%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.17%EV -15.89%E -3.65%K -4.74%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-02 15:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.90%EV -17.60%E -3.35%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 15:45
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.90%EV -17.60%E -3.35%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 15:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.90%EV -17.60%E -3.35%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 15:50
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -9.04%E -6.46%K -22.61%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.90%EV -17.60%E -3.35%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -12.99%E -2.89%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.50%EV -9.69%E -6.97%K -24.85%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.31%EV -19.95%E -3.91%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.19%EV -11.06%E -2.40%K -3.07%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-02 12:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.46I 68.49%NM 68.06%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.20%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.74%0.6%2026-05-02 16:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.46I 68.49%NM 67.84%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.15%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.01%1.0%2026-05-02 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.46I 68.49%NM 67.84%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.15%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.01%1.0%2026-05-02 16:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.46I 68.49%NM 67.84%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.15%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.01%1.0%2026-05-02 16:25
Kalshi1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.69%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.63%2.0%2026-05-02 15:40
Smarkets1.45I 68.97%NM 67.49%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.39%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.12%2.2%2026-05-02 16:25