Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cádiz CF v Las Palmas

Início: 2026-09-12 14:15 UTC

Final: Cádiz CF 0–1 Las Palmas

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

52 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cádiz CF (Local)

Previsão 36.50%2.74odd justa
EV -3.27%
Vantagem -1.24%
Kelly -1.98%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.65

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
35.31%36.50%36.49%38.07%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.302.502.502.6543.48%40.06%40.00%37.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Las Palmas (Visitante)

Previsão 35.08%2.85odd justa
EV -3.53%
Vantagem -1.28%
Kelly -2.02%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
33.68%35.09%34.97%36.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.452.612.602.7540.82%38.35%38.46%36.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.42%3.52odd justa
EV -2.80%
Vantagem -0.820%
Kelly -1.16%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.42

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.67%28.41%28.54%29.08%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.213.203.4233.33%31.20%31.25%29.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Cádiz CF (Local): 36.50%; Las Palmas (Visitante): 35.08%; Empate: 28.42%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.52. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.42, com valor esperado de -2.80%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (52 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -3.27%E -1.24%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.98%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -3.37%E -0.992%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 17:30
1xBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.64%EV -4.37%E -1.67%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.29%EV -4.58%E -1.69%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.07%EV -2.80%E -0.820%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-09 15:20
Pinnacle🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%EV -4.73%E -1.81%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.89%EV -4.23%E -1.55%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.61%EV -5.36%E -1.61%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 15:15
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.59%EV -3.53%E -1.28%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 13:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.73%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -3.37%E -0.992%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 17:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 09:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -5.10%E -1.96%K -3.19%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -10.55%E -4.14%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 14:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.93%EV -5.83%E -2.26%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.11%EV -7.39%E -2.80%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 17:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.93%EV -5.83%E -2.26%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.11%EV -7.39%E -2.80%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.97%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 17:40
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -3.53%E -1.28%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -7.63%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 14:15
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV -5.29%E -1.96%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 19:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV -5.29%E -1.96%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 19:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV -5.29%E -1.96%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 19:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV -5.29%E -1.96%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 19:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%EV -5.29%E -1.96%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 19:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.58%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.33%EV -7.39%E -2.80%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -5.65%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 15:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 17:30
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -6.92%E -2.71%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -10.55%E -4.14%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 14:55
Bovada🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 36.43%EV -7.65%E -3.02%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 15:05
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.35%EV -8.02%E -3.18%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.08%EV -10.48%E -3.33%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-07 09:08
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.35%EV -8.02%E -3.18%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.08%EV -10.48%E -3.33%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-07 09:05
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -8.75%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -8.09%E -3.09%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 15:05
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -8.75%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.63%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 17:30
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.75%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -8.09%E -3.09%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 15:19
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.75%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -8.09%E -3.09%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 15:24
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -8.75%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -10.55%E -4.14%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 21:17
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -8.75%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -10.55%E -4.14%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-08 21:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -8.75%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -10.55%E -4.14%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -7.63%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-08 21:20
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -8.75%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -12.30%E -4.92%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -7.63%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-08 21:20
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -8.75%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.96%EV -12.30%E -4.92%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-09 12:55
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -8.75%E -3.50%K -5.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.63%EV -12.30%E -4.92%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.74%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-09 09:10
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.48%EV -9.48%E -3.82%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -10.48%E -3.33%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 19:15
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.48%EV -9.48%E -3.82%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -10.48%E -3.33%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 19:15
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.48%EV -9.48%E -3.82%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -10.48%E -3.33%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 19:15
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.48%EV -9.48%E -3.82%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -10.48%E -3.33%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 19:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.82%EV -9.84%E -3.99%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.87%EV -10.48%E -3.33%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 14:30
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -10.57%E -4.32%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 23:04
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -10.57%E -4.32%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.64%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.59%EV -10.48%E -3.33%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-08 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.35%EV -10.57%E -4.32%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.92%EV -10.55%E -4.14%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-06 19:15
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -10.57%E -4.32%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -12.30%E -4.92%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-09 14:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.54%EV -11.30%E -4.65%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.82%EV -10.55%E -4.14%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 19:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.54%EV -11.30%E -4.65%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.82%EV -10.55%E -4.14%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 19:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.16%EV -12.40%E -5.17%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.97%EV -10.55%E -4.14%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-07 09:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -12.40%E -5.17%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-06 23:05
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -12.40%E -5.17%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-06 23:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -12.40%E -5.17%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-06 23:05
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%EV -12.40%E -5.17%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-06 23:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.40%EV -12.40%E -5.17%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.95%EV -12.30%E -4.92%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -13.32%E -4.37%K -6.50%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-09 12:51
Betclic (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.48%EV -13.13%E -5.52%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.92%EV -7.74%E -2.94%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.59%EV -11.33%E -3.63%K -5.34%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-07 09:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.23%EV -14.22%E -6.05%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.00%EV -12.30%E -4.92%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.77%EV -10.48%E -3.33%K -4.87%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-07 09:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.46%EV -14.22%E -6.05%K -10.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.97%EV -14.06%E -5.74%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.56%EV -14.74%E -4.91%K -7.37%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-06 19:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.07%EV -16.05%E -6.98%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.68%EV -8.79%E -3.38%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.25%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-08 14:15
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.66I 37.59%NM 36.19%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.63%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.17%3.9%2026-09-09 17:35
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 36.55%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.58%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.87%4.0%2026-09-09 17:11
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 36.10%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.80%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.10%4.1%2026-09-09 17:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 36.10%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.80%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.10%4.1%2026-09-09 17:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 36.10%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.80%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.10%4.1%2026-09-09 17:20
Smarkets◎2.64I 37.88%NM 36.03%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.71%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%5.1%2026-09-09 17:35