Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Burgos CF v Real Sociedad B

Início: 2026-08-31 17:00 UTC

Final: Burgos CF 2–2 Real Sociedad B

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

52 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Burgos CF (Local)

Previsão 48.34%2.07odd justa
EV -4.28%
Vantagem -2.16%
Kelly -4.37%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.98

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.90%48.44%48.38%51.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.681.871.901.9859.52%53.44%52.63%50.51%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Real Sociedad B (Visitante)

Previsão 23.04%4.34odd justa
EV +6.00%
Vantagem +1.30%
Kelly +1.67%
Crescimento +0.100%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
20.46%22.97%23.03%24.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.704.074.004.6027.03%24.58%25.00%21.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.61%3.49odd justa
EV -2.71%
Vantagem -0.797%
Kelly -1.13%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.83%28.58%28.59%30.11%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.203.173.4033.33%31.29%31.50%29.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Burgos CF (Local): 48.34%; Real Sociedad B (Visitante): 23.04%; Empate: 28.61%. Para Real Sociedad B (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 4.34. 10 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.60, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +6.00%.

Odds das casas de apostas (52 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -11.54%E -6.30%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV +6.00%E +1.30%K +1.67%G +0.100%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -4.14%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 16:35
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -11.54%E -6.30%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV +6.00%E +1.30%K +1.67%G +0.100%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -4.14%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 16:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -11.54%E -6.30%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV +6.00%E +1.30%K +1.67%G +0.100%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -4.14%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 16:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -11.54%E -6.30%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV +6.00%E +1.30%K +1.67%G +0.100%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -4.14%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-31 16:35
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.03%EV -4.77%E -2.42%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 22.05%EV +0.932%E +0.213%K +0.276%G +0.003%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.92%EV -4.43%E -1.33%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-31 16:50
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.52%EV -5.25%E -2.68%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.86%EV +0.241%E +0.055%K +0.072%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.62%EV -8.15%E -2.54%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-31 16:50
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.02%EV -14.44%E -8.16%K -18.75%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.76%EV +0.241%E +0.055%K +0.072%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.22%EV -8.43%E -2.64%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-31 16:35
TABtouch🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.02%EV -14.44%E -8.16%K -18.75%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.76%EV +0.241%E +0.055%K +0.072%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.22%EV -8.43%E -2.64%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-31 16:35
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.02%EV -14.44%E -8.16%K -18.75%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.76%EV +0.241%E +0.055%K +0.072%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.22%EV -8.43%E -2.64%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-31 16:35
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.02%EV -14.44%E -8.16%K -18.75%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.76%EV +0.241%E +0.055%K +0.072%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.22%EV -8.43%E -2.64%K -3.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-31 16:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.95%EV -15.40%E -8.80%K -20.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -0.911%E -0.212%K -0.276%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.31%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-31 16:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.10%EV -15.89%E -9.13%K -21.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.68%EV -0.911%E -0.212%K -0.276%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.23%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-31 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.10%EV -15.89%E -9.13%K -21.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.68%EV -0.911%E -0.212%K -0.276%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.23%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-31 16:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.92%EV -9.60%E -5.13%K -11.04%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.96%EV -2.06%E -0.485%K -0.635%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.12%EV -5.00%E -1.51%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-31 16:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 16:40
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-31 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -11.54%E -6.30%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -3.22%E -0.766%K -1.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -5.57%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 16:40
Bovada🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.65%EV -8.64%E -4.57%K -9.70%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.16%EV -4.37%E -1.05%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 16:50
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -5.73%E -2.94%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.57%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 16:30
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.91%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.78%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.57%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-31 16:35
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.48%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.58%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.94%EV -8.43%E -2.64%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 16:43
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.01%EV -18.79%E -11.18%K -27.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.90%EV -5.52%E -1.35%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.09%EV -12.72%E -4.17%K -6.21%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-31 16:35
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.14%EV -4.28%E -2.16%K -4.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -2.71%E -0.797%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-31 16:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -5.73%E -2.94%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -2.71%E -0.797%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-31 16:40
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.73%E -2.94%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -5.57%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-31 16:35
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -7.18%E -3.74%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 16:45
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -7.18%E -3.74%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 16:45
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -8.15%E -4.29%K -9.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.43%E -2.64%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-31 16:50
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -14.16%E -4.72%K -7.08%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-31 16:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.43%EV -10.09%E -5.42%K -11.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -7.82%E -1.96%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.06%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-31 16:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.98%EV -8.15%E -4.29%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.08%EV -8.98%E -2.27%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-31 16:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.47%EV -11.54%E -6.30%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.45%EV -8.98%E -2.27%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.08%EV -12.72%E -4.17%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-31 16:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -5.57%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-31 16:40
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.34%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.98%EV -5.57%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-31 16:40
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.06%EV -8.15%E -4.29%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -8.43%E -2.64%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 16:33
betano_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.06%EV -8.15%E -4.29%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -8.43%E -2.64%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-31 16:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.57%E -5.71%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-31 16:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.11%EV -13.47%E -7.52%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.54%EV -10.13%E -2.60%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.35%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-31 16:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.38%EV -9.12%E -4.85%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.99%EV -7.00%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-31 16:45
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.69%EV -8.15%E -4.29%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -11.28%E -2.93%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.77%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-31 16:40
BetMGM🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.37%EV -6.70%E -3.47%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.06%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.57%EV -8.43%E -2.64%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.08%EV -10.09%E -5.42%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.39%EV -9.86%E -3.13%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-31 16:45
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.73%EV -9.60%E -5.13%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-31 16:35
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -10.57%E -5.71%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-31 16:45
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -10.57%E -5.71%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -12.43%E -3.27%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-31 16:45
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -13.59%E -3.62%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -7.00%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-31 16:40
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-31 16:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-31 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-31 16:35
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -7.67%E -4.01%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.74%E -3.98%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.38%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-31 16:35
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.51%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.76%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-08-31 16:35
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.95%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.97%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.08%1.1%2026-08-31 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.07%1.2%2026-08-31 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.07%1.2%2026-08-31 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.07%1.2%2026-08-31 16:55
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.70%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.36%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.94%1.6%2026-08-31 16:55