Language:English
Almería v Leganés
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Almería (Local)
Prediction 59.70%1.68fair odd
EV -4.48%
Edge -2.80%
Kelly -7.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.27%59.75%59.55%61.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.531.531.6070.42%65.42%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Leganés (Visit)
Prediction 17.84%5.61fair odd
EV +7.02%
Edge +1.17%
Kelly +1.40%
Growth +0.098%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.90%17.76%18.06%19.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.245.286.0022.22%19.10%18.96%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.46%4.45fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -0.792%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.16%22.50%22.39%24.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.973.954.3029.41%25.17%25.32%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Almería (Local): 59.70%; Leganés (Visit): 17.84%; Draw: 22.46%. For Leganés (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.61. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.02%.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.03%EV -5.67%E -3.59%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.07%EV +7.02%E +1.17%K +1.40%G +0.098% | 4.21I 23.75%NM 22.90%EV -5.43%E -1.29%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.78%EV -7.46%E -4.82%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.24%EV +3.45%E +0.595%K +0.719%G +0.025% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.90%E -1.93%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.78%EV -7.46%E -4.82%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.24%EV +3.45%E +0.595%K +0.719%G +0.025% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.90%E -1.93%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.04%EV -6.27%E -3.99%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV +2.56%E +0.445%K +0.539%G +0.014% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -10.15%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 60.97%EV -9.85%E -6.52%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV +2.56%E +0.445%K +0.539%G +0.014% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -10.15%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.95%EV -10.45%E -6.97%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV +2.56%E +0.445%K +0.539%G +0.014% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.15%EV -11.27%E -2.85%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.18%EV -4.48%E -2.80%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.89%EV +1.67%E +0.292%K +0.355%G +0.006% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.93%EV -5.65%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.18%EV -4.48%E -2.80%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.89%EV +1.67%E +0.292%K +0.355%G +0.006% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.93%EV -5.65%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.09%EV -8.06%E -5.23%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.51%EV +1.67%E +0.292%K +0.355%G +0.006% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -5.65%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.92%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.35%EV +1.67%E +0.292%K +0.355%G +0.006% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -7.90%E -1.93%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -0.117%E -0.021%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -11.27%E -2.85%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-05 16:26 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.45%EV -0.117%E -0.021%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -11.27%E -2.85%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.54%EV -6.27%E -3.99%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.10%EV -0.831%E -0.149%K -0.182%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.36%EV -4.53%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.43%EV -5.67%E -3.59%K -9.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%EV -1.90%E -0.346%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.21%EV -3.41%E -0.792%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.09%EV -6.87%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -1.90%E -0.346%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV -7.90%E -1.93%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -1.90%E -0.346%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -5.65%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.68%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV -1.90%E -0.346%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -13.52%E -3.51%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.68%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV -1.90%E -0.346%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -13.52%E -3.51%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.68%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV -1.90%E -0.346%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -13.52%E -3.51%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.68%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV -1.90%E -0.346%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -13.52%E -3.51%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -10.45%E -6.97%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -1.90%E -0.346%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.15%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.81%EV -9.85%E -6.52%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.73%EV -3.68%E -0.682%K -0.837%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.46%EV -13.52%E -3.51%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.79%EV -10.45%E -6.97%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.61%EV -3.68%E -0.682%K -0.837%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.60%EV -14.64%E -3.85%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.79%EV -10.45%E -6.97%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.61%EV -3.68%E -0.682%K -0.837%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.60%EV -14.64%E -3.85%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.79%EV -10.45%E -6.97%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.61%EV -3.68%E -0.682%K -0.837%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.60%EV -14.64%E -3.85%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.58%EV -11.05%E -7.41%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.75%EV -5.47%E -1.03%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.67%EV -15.76%E -4.20%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -7.46%E -4.82%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -6.36%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.65%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 59.78%EV -15.23%E -10.72%K -36.25%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 16.64%EV -9.04%E -1.77%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.58%EV -19.13%E -5.31%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.56%EV -6.87%E -4.40%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -10.82%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.86%EV -4.53%E -1.07%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -6.27%E -3.99%K -11.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -10.82%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -7.90%E -1.93%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.56%EV -7.46%E -4.82%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -10.82%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -5.65%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.65%EV -10.45%E -6.97%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -10.82%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -3.41%E -0.792%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.39%EV -7.46%E -4.82%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -10.82%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -13.52%E -3.51%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.72%EV -8.06%E -5.23%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -10.82%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -12.39%E -3.18%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -10.45%E -6.97%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -10.82%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -10.15%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -10.82%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.64%E -3.85%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -10.82%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.64%E -3.85%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -10.45%E -6.97%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -10.82%E -2.16%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -12.39%E -3.18%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.29%EV -7.46%E -4.82%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.57%EV -11.71%E -2.37%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.14%EV -6.78%E -1.63%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.18%EV -8.06%E -5.23%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -12.60%E -2.57%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.23%EV -7.90%E -1.93%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 59.79%EV -13.43%E -9.27%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.69%EV -12.60%E -2.57%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.52%EV -13.52%E -3.51%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.24%EV -7.46%E -4.82%K -13.57%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.61%EV -13.49%E -2.78%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -12.39%E -3.18%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.54%EV -10.45%E -6.97%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.41%EV -13.49%E -2.78%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.05%EV -9.02%E -2.23%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.09%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.39%E -3.00%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -14.64%E -3.85%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.09%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.39%E -3.00%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -14.64%E -3.85%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.09%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.39%E -3.00%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -14.64%E -3.85%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.98%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -15.28%E -3.22%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.34%EV -14.64%E -3.85%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.02%EV -8.06%E -5.23%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.34%EV -16.17%E -3.44%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -5.65%E -1.35%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.37%EV -9.26%E -6.09%K -17.80%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.88%EV -16.17%E -3.44%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.75%EV -12.39%E -3.18%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.27%EV -8.66%E -5.66%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.05%EV -17.95%E -3.90%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.68%EV -16.89%E -4.56%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.54%EV -10.45%E -6.97%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -19.74%E -4.39%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.95%EV -10.15%E -2.54%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-05 16:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 57.35%EV -14.03%E -9.74%K -31.89%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 18.35%EV -19.74%E -4.39%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.29%EV -23.62%E -6.95%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 21.1% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.51% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06% | 0.7% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.51% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06% | 0.7% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.51% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06% | 0.7% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.97% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.03% | 0.9% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.42% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.83% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.74% | 1.1% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.79% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.17% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.05% | 3.1% | 2026-04-05 16:30 |