Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Almería v Celta Fortuna

2026-09-20 16:30 UTC — La Liga 2 - Spain

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Almería (Local)

Prediction 64.87%1.54fair odd
EV -8.53%
Edge -6.05%
Kelly -20.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.94%64.87%64.90%67.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.361.351.4178.13%73.53%74.07%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celta Fortuna (Visit)

Prediction 14.78%6.76fair odd
EV +10.89%
Edge +1.45%
Kelly +1.67%
Growth +0.182%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.50%14.78%14.76%15.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.687.007.5018.52%14.98%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.34%4.92fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -0.491%
Kelly -0.620%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.54%20.34%20.34%20.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.154.534.504.8024.10%22.08%22.22%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Almería (Local): 64.87%; Celta Fortuna (Visit): 14.78%; Draw: 20.34%. For Celta Fortuna (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.76. 11 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 7.50, producing a positive expected value of +10.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -10.48%E -7.59%K -27.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +10.89%E +1.45%K +1.67%G +0.182%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -2.36%E -0.491%K -0.620%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 17:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -10.48%E -7.59%K -27.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +10.89%E +1.45%K +1.67%G +0.182%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -2.36%E -0.491%K -0.620%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 17:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -10.48%E -7.59%K -27.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +10.89%E +1.45%K +1.67%G +0.182%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -2.36%E -0.491%K -0.620%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 17:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -10.48%E -7.59%K -27.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +10.89%E +1.45%K +1.67%G +0.182%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -2.36%E -0.491%K -0.620%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 17:15
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -12.42%E -9.20%K -35.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV +3.49%E +0.499%K +0.582%G +0.020%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -6.43%E -1.40%K -1.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 17:15
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -12.42%E -9.20%K -35.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV +3.49%E +0.499%K +0.582%G +0.020%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -6.43%E -1.40%K -1.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 17:26
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -12.42%E -9.20%K -35.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV +3.49%E +0.499%K +0.582%G +0.020%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -6.43%E -1.40%K -1.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 17:15
betPARX🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -12.42%E -9.20%K -35.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV +3.49%E +0.499%K +0.582%G +0.020%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -6.43%E -1.40%K -1.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-13 17:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.15%EV -13.07%E -9.75%K -38.44%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV +3.49%E +0.499%K +0.582%G +0.020%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -8.46%E -1.88%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 17:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.15%EV -13.07%E -9.75%K -38.44%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV +3.49%E +0.499%K +0.582%G +0.020%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -8.46%E -1.88%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 17:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -13.72%E -10.32%K -41.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV +3.49%E +0.499%K +0.582%G +0.020%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -8.46%E -1.88%K -2.42%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 17:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 67.24%EV -16.96%E -13.25%K -60.58%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.75%EV -0.202%E -0.030%K -0.035%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.01%EV -12.53%E -2.91%K -3.80%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-13 17:15
Betsson🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.90%EV -8.53%E -6.05%K -20.80%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.76%EV -8.33%E -1.34%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -8.46%E -1.88%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 16:51
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.90%EV -8.53%E -6.05%K -20.80%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.76%EV -8.33%E -1.34%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.34%EV -8.46%E -1.88%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 16:56
Codere (IT)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.07%EV -9.18%E -6.56%K -22.94%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.69%EV -8.33%E -1.34%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -8.46%E -1.88%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 16:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.65%EV -11.77%E -8.66%K -32.70%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.90%EV -12.77%E -2.16%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.45%EV -12.53%E -2.91%K -3.80%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-13 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.27%EV -11.12%E -8.12%K -30.07%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.72%EV -17.20%E -3.07%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.01%EV -10.49%E -2.39%K -3.09%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-13 17:01
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 64.19%EV -13.72%E -10.32%K -41.57%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.24%EV -17.20%E -3.07%K -3.74%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.57%EV -15.58%E -3.75%K -4.95%G +0.000%17.1%2026-09-13 16:51
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 63.94%EV -12.42%E -9.20%K -35.49%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.99%EV -20.16%E -3.73%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.07%EV -12.53%E -2.91%K -3.80%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-13 17:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.