Language:English
Almería v Celta Fortuna
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Almería (Local)
Prediction 67.06%1.49fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -7.82%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.82%67.03%66.94%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.371.371.4478.13%72.96%72.99%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Celta Fortuna (Visit)
Prediction 13.40%7.46fair odd
EV +0.531%
Edge +0.071%
Kelly +0.082%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.48%13.47%13.41%15.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.837.007.5017.39%14.65%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.54%5.12fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.460%
Kelly -0.575%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.72%19.50%19.66%21.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.634.605.0023.53%21.62%21.74%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Almería (Local): 67.06%; Celta Fortuna (Visit): 13.40%; Draw: 19.54%. For Celta Fortuna (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.46. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.531%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.19%EV -4.78%E -3.37%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.72%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.09%EV -7.18%E -1.51%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 15:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 15:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 15:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-20 15:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -2.30%E -0.460%K -0.575%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 16:28 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.39%EV -4.11%E -2.87%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 7.42I 13.48%NM 12.99%EV -0.541%E -0.073%K -0.084%G +0.000% | 4.91I 20.37%NM 19.63%EV -4.06%E -0.827%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-20 16:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.00%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 12.59%EV -0.809%E -0.109%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.07%EV -3.44%E -2.39%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 7.26I 13.77%NM 13.11%EV -2.69%E -0.370%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 20.82%EV -10.70%E -2.34%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.47%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.56%EV -2.82%E -0.389%K -0.451%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.90%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.92%EV -3.49%E -0.485%K -0.563%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.18%EV -5.23%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.72%EV -4.78%E -3.37%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-20 16:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.30%E -0.460%K -0.575%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -2.30%E -0.460%K -0.575%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 16:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -4.25%E -0.868%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 16:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-20 16:28 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 15:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 15:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 15:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 15:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-13 17:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-20 15:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-20 15:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -12.83%E -9.87%K -42.76%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -7.18%E -1.51%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-20 16:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -5.45%E -3.87%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.76%EV -8.85%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -8.16%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 16:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -5.45%E -3.87%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.76%EV -8.85%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -8.16%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 16:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.31%EV -6.79%E -4.89%K -17.42%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -9.52%E -1.41%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-20 16:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.56%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -9.52%E -1.41%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -15.98%E -3.72%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 67.24%EV -14.17%E -11.07%K -50.60%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 12.75%EV -9.52%E -1.41%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.01%EV -15.98%E -3.72%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-09-16 15:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 66.43%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.79%EV -11.53%E -1.75%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 66.43%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.79%EV -11.53%E -1.75%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-20 16:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 66.43%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.79%EV -11.53%E -1.75%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -12.87%E -1.98%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -12.87%E -1.98%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -14.02%E -3.19%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-20 16:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -12.87%E -1.98%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-09-20 16:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 66.49%EV -10.15%E -7.57%K -29.84%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 13.92%EV -14.21%E -2.22%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.58%EV -11.09%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-20 16:28 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.13%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.88%EV -19.57%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.99%EV -8.16%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -19.57%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-20 16:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 66.03%EV -14.17%E -11.07%K -50.60%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.09%EV -19.57%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 19.89%EV -16.95%E -3.99%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 18.3% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.14%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.46%EV -20.92%E -3.54%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -8.16%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-20 16:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -22.93%E -3.99%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.39%E -3.55%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-20 16:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -22.93%E -3.99%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.39%E -3.55%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-20 16:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -22.93%E -3.99%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.39%E -3.55%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-20 16:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -22.93%E -3.99%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.39%E -3.55%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-20 16:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36% | 0.8% | 2026-09-20 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.99% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97% | 1.4% | 2026-09-20 16:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.99% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97% | 1.4% | 2026-09-20 16:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.38% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.31% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.31% | 1.6% | 2026-09-20 16:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.78% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.00% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.22% | 1.6% | 2026-09-20 16:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.60% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.76% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65% | 1.9% | 2026-09-20 16:24 |