A Escola das Oddsodds.school
Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)
+ Novo modeloTodos os modelos

Almería v Celta Fortuna

Início: 2026-09-20 16:30 UTC

Final: Almería 2–0 Celta Fortuna

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

49 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Almería (Local)

Previsão 67.06%1.49odd justa
EV -3.44%
Vantagem -2.39%
Kelly -7.82%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.44

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
63.82%67.03%66.94%68.81%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.281.371.371.4478.13%72.96%72.99%69.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Celta Fortuna (Visitante)

Previsão 13.40%7.46odd justa
EV +0.531%
Vantagem +0.071%
Kelly +0.082%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
12.48%13.47%13.41%15.54%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.756.837.007.5017.39%14.65%14.29%13.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 19.54%5.12odd justa
EV -2.30%
Vantagem -0.460%
Kelly -0.575%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
18.72%19.50%19.66%21.04%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.254.634.605.0023.53%21.62%21.74%20.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Almería (Local): 67.06%; Celta Fortuna (Visitante): 13.40%; Empate: 19.54%. Para Celta Fortuna (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 7.46. 7 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 7.50, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.531%.

Odds das casas de apostas (49 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.19%EV -4.78%E -3.37%K -11.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.72%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.09%EV -7.18%E -1.51%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-20 16:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-20 16:29
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 15:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 15:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 15:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 15:34
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -2.30%E -0.460%K -0.575%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 16:28
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.39%EV -4.11%E -2.87%K -9.56%G +0.000%7.42I 13.48%NM 12.99%EV -0.541%E -0.073%K -0.084%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.63%EV -4.06%E -0.827%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-20 16:19
BetAnything🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.00%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.59%EV -0.809%E -0.109%K -0.126%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 16:29
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.07%EV -3.44%E -2.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.26I 13.77%NM 13.11%EV -2.69%E -0.370%K -0.429%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.82%EV -10.70%E -2.34%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 16:29
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.47%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.56%EV -2.82%E -0.389%K -0.451%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 16:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.90%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.92%EV -3.49%E -0.485%K -0.563%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.18%EV -5.23%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 16:29
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.72%EV -4.78%E -3.37%K -11.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-20 16:24
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.30%E -0.460%K -0.575%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 16:29
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -2.30%E -0.460%K -0.575%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 16:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-20 16:29
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-20 16:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -4.25%E -0.868%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 16:09
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 16:29
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 16:29
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 16:28
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 15:35
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 15:35
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 15:34
betPARX🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 15:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 17:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 15:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 15:35
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -12.83%E -9.87%K -42.76%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -7.18%E -1.51%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -5.45%E -3.87%K -13.30%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.76%EV -8.85%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -8.16%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 16:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -5.45%E -3.87%K -13.30%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.76%EV -8.85%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -8.16%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 16:24
Bovada🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.31%EV -6.79%E -4.89%K -17.42%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -9.52%E -1.41%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 16:14
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.56%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -9.52%E -1.41%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -15.98%E -3.72%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 16:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 67.24%EV -14.17%E -11.07%K -50.60%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.75%EV -9.52%E -1.41%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.01%EV -15.98%E -3.72%K -4.84%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-16 15:35
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.43%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.79%EV -11.53%E -1.75%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 16:29
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.43%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.79%EV -11.53%E -1.75%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 16:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.43%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.79%EV -11.53%E -1.75%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 16:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -12.87%E -1.98%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-20 16:29
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -12.87%E -1.98%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -14.02%E -3.19%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 16:09
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -12.87%E -1.98%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.49%EV -10.15%E -7.57%K -29.84%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.92%EV -14.21%E -2.22%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.58%EV -11.09%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-20 16:28
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.13%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.88%EV -19.57%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.99%EV -8.16%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 16:29
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -19.57%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-20 16:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 66.03%EV -14.17%E -11.07%K -50.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.09%EV -19.57%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 19.89%EV -16.95%E -3.99%K -5.22%G +0.000%18.3%2026-09-20 16:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.14%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.46%EV -20.92%E -3.54%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -8.16%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 16:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -22.93%E -3.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.39%E -3.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 16:14
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -22.93%E -3.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.39%E -3.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 16:14
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -22.93%E -3.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.39%E -3.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 16:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -22.93%E -3.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.39%E -3.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 16:14
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%0.8%2026-09-20 16:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.99%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%1.4%2026-09-20 16:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.99%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%1.4%2026-09-20 16:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.38%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.31%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.31%1.6%2026-09-20 16:24
Smarkets◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.78%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.00%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.22%1.6%2026-09-20 16:30
Kalshi◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.60%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.76%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%1.9%2026-09-20 16:24