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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Almería v Celta Fortuna

Inicio: 2026-09-20 16:30 UTC

Final: Almería 2–0 Celta Fortuna

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Almería (Local)

Predicción 67.06%1.49momio equitativo
EV -3.44%
Ventaja -2.39%
Kelly -7.82%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.82%67.03%66.94%68.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.281.371.371.4478.13%72.96%72.99%69.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Celta Fortuna (Visitante)

Predicción 13.40%7.46momio equitativo
EV +0.531%
Ventaja +0.071%
Kelly +0.082%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.48%13.47%13.41%15.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.756.837.007.5017.39%14.65%14.29%13.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 19.54%5.12momio equitativo
EV -2.30%
Ventaja -0.460%
Kelly -0.575%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.72%19.50%19.66%21.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.254.634.605.0023.53%21.62%21.74%20.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Almería (Local): 67.06%; Celta Fortuna (Visitante): 13.40%; Empate: 19.54%. Para Celta Fortuna (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.46. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.531%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.19%EV -4.78%E -3.37%K -11.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.72%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.09%EV -7.18%E -1.51%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-20 16:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-20 16:29
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 15:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 15:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 15:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.96%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 15:34
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV +0.531%E +0.071%K +0.082%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -2.30%E -0.460%K -0.575%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 16:28
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.39%EV -4.11%E -2.87%K -9.56%G +0.000%7.42I 13.48%NM 12.99%EV -0.541%E -0.073%K -0.084%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.63%EV -4.06%E -0.827%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-20 16:19
BetAnything🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.00%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.59%EV -0.809%E -0.109%K -0.126%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 16:29
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.07%EV -3.44%E -2.39%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.26I 13.77%NM 13.11%EV -2.69%E -0.370%K -0.429%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.82%EV -10.70%E -2.34%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 16:29
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.47%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.56%EV -2.82%E -0.389%K -0.451%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 16:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.90%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.92%EV -3.49%E -0.485%K -0.563%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.18%EV -5.23%E -1.08%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 16:29
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.72%EV -4.78%E -3.37%K -11.38%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-20 16:24
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.30%E -0.460%K -0.575%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 16:29
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -2.30%E -0.460%K -0.575%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 16:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-20 16:29
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -6.21%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-20 16:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -4.25%E -0.868%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 16:09
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 16:29
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 16:29
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 16:28
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 15:35
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 15:35
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 15:34
betPARX🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.28%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 15:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 17:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 15:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 15:35
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.52%EV -12.83%E -9.87%K -42.76%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -6.17%E -0.882%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.75%EV -7.18%E -1.51%K -1.92%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -5.45%E -3.87%K -13.30%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.76%EV -8.85%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -8.16%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 16:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.34%EV -5.45%E -3.87%K -13.30%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.76%EV -8.85%E -1.30%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -8.16%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 16:24
Bovada🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.31%EV -6.79%E -4.89%K -17.42%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.65%EV -9.52%E -1.41%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 16:14
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.56%EV -7.46%E -5.41%K -19.64%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -9.52%E -1.41%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -15.98%E -3.72%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 16:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 67.24%EV -14.17%E -11.07%K -50.60%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.75%EV -9.52%E -1.41%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.01%EV -15.98%E -3.72%K -4.84%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-16 15:35
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.43%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.79%EV -11.53%E -1.75%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 16:29
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.43%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.79%EV -11.53%E -1.75%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 16:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.43%EV -8.13%E -5.94%K -21.98%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.79%EV -11.53%E -1.75%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.78%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-20 16:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -12.87%E -1.98%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -10.12%E -2.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-20 16:29
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -12.87%E -1.98%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -14.02%E -3.19%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 16:09
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.66%EV -10.82%E -8.13%K -32.78%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.64%EV -12.87%E -1.98%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-20 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.49%EV -10.15%E -7.57%K -29.84%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.92%EV -14.21%E -2.22%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.58%EV -11.09%E -2.44%K -3.12%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-20 16:28
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.13%EV -9.47%E -7.02%K -27.07%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.88%EV -19.57%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.99%EV -8.16%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 16:29
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -8.80%E -6.47%K -24.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -19.57%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -12.07%E -2.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-20 16:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 66.03%EV -14.17%E -11.07%K -50.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.09%EV -19.57%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 19.89%EV -16.95%E -3.99%K -5.22%G +0.000%18.3%2026-09-20 16:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.14%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.46%EV -20.92%E -3.54%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -8.16%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-20 16:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -22.93%E -3.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.39%E -3.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 16:14
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -22.93%E -3.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.39%E -3.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 16:14
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -22.93%E -3.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.39%E -3.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 16:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.82%EV -6.12%E -4.37%K -15.30%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.54%EV -22.93%E -3.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.39%E -3.55%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 16:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.83%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.80%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.36%0.8%2026-09-20 16:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.99%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%1.4%2026-09-20 16:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.99%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%1.4%2026-09-20 16:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.38%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.31%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.31%1.6%2026-09-20 16:24
Smarkets◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.78%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.00%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.22%1.6%2026-09-20 16:30
Kalshi◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.60%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.76%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%1.9%2026-09-20 16:24