Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Almería v CD Eldense

2026-08-17 19:30 UTC — La Liga 2 - Spain

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Almería (Local)

Prediction 72.03%1.39fair odd
EV -4.92%
Edge -3.72%
Kelly -15.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.23%71.94%72.42%73.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.271.271.3281.30%78.70%78.74%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CD Eldense (Visit)

Prediction 8.48%11.79fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -0.291%
Kelly -0.319%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.27%8.68%8.38%11.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.9410.0011.4013.33%10.06%10.00%8.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.49%5.13fair odd
EV +0.740%
Edge +0.143%
Kelly +0.178%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 5.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.00%19.38%19.20%20.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.154.684.505.1724.10%21.36%22.22%19.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Almería (Local): 72.03%; CD Eldense (Visit): 8.48%; Draw: 19.49%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.13. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.17, producing a positive expected value of +0.740%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet1.31I 76.34%NM 73.08%EV -5.64%E -4.30%K -18.18%G +0.000%11.40I 8.77%NM 8.40%EV -3.31%E -0.291%K -0.319%G +0.000%5.17I 19.34%NM 18.52%EV +0.740%E +0.143%K +0.178%G +0.001%4.5%2026-08-03 19:19
SportsBet1.27I 78.74%NM 72.32%EV -8.52%E -6.71%K -31.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -19.43%E -2.04%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -0.624%E -0.122%K -0.152%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-03 14:29
FanDuel1.27I 78.74%NM 72.32%EV -8.52%E -6.71%K -31.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -19.43%E -2.04%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.01%EV -0.624%E -0.122%K -0.152%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-03 14:34
Betr (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 71.63%EV -4.92%E -3.72%K -15.36%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -15.19%E -1.52%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -2.57%E -0.514%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-03 14:29
Paddy Power1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -9.96%E -7.97%K -39.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -23.67%E -2.63%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -2.57%E -0.514%K -0.643%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-03 14:29
Marathon Bet1.28I 78.13%NM 72.73%EV -7.80%E -6.09%K -27.85%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.27%EV -4.58%E -0.408%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.00%EV -4.52%E -0.923%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-03 19:24
Tipico (DE)1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -8.52%E -6.71%K -31.55%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -6.71%E -0.610%K -0.671%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -6.47%E -1.35%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-03 19:04
Mr Green (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.07%EV -6.36%E -4.89%K -21.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -6.71%E -0.610%K -0.671%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -12.32%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-03 19:09
Codere (IT)1.28I 78.13%NM 71.39%EV -7.80%E -6.09%K -27.85%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.31%EV -6.71%E -0.610%K -0.671%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -12.32%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-03 19:00
Winamax (DE)1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -9.96%E -7.97%K -39.83%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.80%EV -23.67%E -2.63%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.61%EV -12.32%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-03 18:59
Sky Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 69.23%EV -9.96%E -7.97%K -39.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.54%EV -36.39%E -4.85%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.23%EV -12.32%E -2.74%K -3.52%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-03 16:25
William Hill1.30I 76.92%NM 70.74%EV -6.36%E -4.89%K -21.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -6.71%E -0.610%K -0.671%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -14.26%E -3.24%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-03 19:10
Betclic (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 70.80%EV -10.68%E -8.61%K -44.50%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.78%EV -15.19%E -1.52%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.42%EV -16.21%E -3.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-03 19:24
Winamax (FR)1.23I 81.30%NM 69.89%EV -11.40%E -9.27%K -49.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.11%EV -27.91%E -3.28%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.99%EV -16.21%E -3.77%K -4.91%G +0.000%16.3%2026-08-03 19:00
Unibet (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 69.96%EV -10.68%E -8.61%K -44.50%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.13%EV -19.43%E -2.04%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.90%EV -19.14%E -4.61%K -6.07%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-03 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-03 14:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-03 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-03 14:55