Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Albacete v Real Sociedad B

Inicio: 2026-08-22 17:00 UTC

Final: Albacete 1–2 Real Sociedad B

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Albacete (Local)

Predicción 52.53%1.90momio equitativo
EV -2.82%
Ventaja -1.52%
Kelly -3.31%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.51%52.57%52.48%54.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.631.761.751.8561.35%56.79%57.14%54.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Real Sociedad B (Visitante)

Predicción 22.00%4.55momio equitativo
EV +3.38%
Ventaja +0.719%
Kelly +0.913%
Crecimiento +0.031%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.53%21.89%22.02%23.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.124.104.7026.67%24.25%24.39%21.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.47%3.93momio equitativo
EV -2.44%
Ventaja -0.636%
Kelly -0.861%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.65%25.53%25.50%26.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.533.523.8330.77%28.29%28.37%26.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Albacete (Local): 52.53%; Real Sociedad B (Visitante): 22.00%; Empate: 25.47%. Para Real Sociedad B (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.55. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.70, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.38%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -12.27%E -7.35%K -18.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV +3.38%E +0.719%K +0.913%G +0.031%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.30%E -2.30%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 14:55
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.96%EV -5.97%E -3.33%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.82%EV +2.06%E +0.444%K +0.565%G +0.012%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.22%EV -2.44%E -0.636%K -0.861%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-22 14:55
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.62%EV -5.97%E -3.33%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.19%EV -0.361%E -0.080%K -0.102%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.19%EV -2.95%E -0.773%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-22 14:49
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.17%EV -7.02%E -3.97%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -3.22%E -0.732%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -5.75%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 14:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.60%EV -8.60%E -4.94%K -11.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -3.22%E -0.732%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -5.75%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 14:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.02%EV -8.60%E -4.94%K -11.62%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.21%EV -4.32%E -0.993%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.77%EV -8.80%E -2.46%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 14:47
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.39%EV -9.65%E -5.61%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.11%EV -4.32%E -0.993%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -8.30%E -2.30%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 14:50
BetAnything🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.39%EV -9.65%E -5.61%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.11%EV -4.32%E -0.993%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -8.30%E -2.30%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 14:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.80%EV -9.65%E -5.61%K -13.40%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.88%EV -4.32%E -0.993%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-22 09:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -4.76%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -10.84%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 12:49
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.85%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -5.42%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -3.20%E -0.842%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 11:15
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.04%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -5.42%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 09:04
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.04%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -5.42%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 09:09
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -3.87%E -2.11%K -4.66%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -7.62%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -4.47%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-22 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -2.82%E -1.52%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -7.62%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -8.30%E -2.30%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 04:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.17%EV -2.82%E -1.52%K -3.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%EV -7.62%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -8.30%E -2.30%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 04:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.94%EV -4.39%E -2.41%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -7.62%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -5.75%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 11:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.36%EV -5.97%E -3.33%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -7.62%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -5.75%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 08:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.36%EV -5.97%E -3.33%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -7.62%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -5.75%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 08:49
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -9.12%E -5.27%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -7.62%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.30%E -2.30%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 08:50
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -9.12%E -5.27%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -7.62%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.30%E -2.30%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 08:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -7.62%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 09:09
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -7.62%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 12:50
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.78%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -7.62%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 14:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -10.70%E -6.29%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -7.62%E -1.81%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -8.30%E -2.30%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-22 15:10
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -9.82%E -2.39%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -5.75%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 06:22
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.61%EV -7.02%E -3.97%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.28%EV -9.82%E -2.39%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -10.84%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 05:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.11%EV -11.75%E -6.99%K -17.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -9.82%E -2.39%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -9.57%E -2.70%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-22 15:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.28%EV -14.37%E -8.82%K -22.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.18%EV -9.82%E -2.39%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.54%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%15.2%2026-08-22 14:58
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.23%EV -7.02%E -3.97%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -12.02%E -3.00%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -4.47%E -1.19%K -1.63%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 15:15
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.02%E -3.00%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.30%E -2.30%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-22 06:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.44%E -3.02%K -6.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -12.02%E -3.00%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.30%E -2.30%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-22 06:25
SportsBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.56%EV -6.49%E -3.65%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -12.02%E -3.00%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.30%E -2.30%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-22 06:25
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.58%EV -4.92%E -2.72%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -12.02%E -3.00%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 04:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.58%EV -4.92%E -2.72%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -12.02%E -3.00%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -12.12%E -3.51%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 04:30
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.70%EV -7.02%E -3.97%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -12.02%E -3.00%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -8.30%E -2.30%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 06:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -12.02%E -3.00%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -8.30%E -2.30%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 14:00
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.90%EV -9.12%E -5.27%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -12.02%E -3.00%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -10.84%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-22 05:34
Grosvenor🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.51%EV -5.97%E -3.33%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -13.12%E -3.32%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 04:29
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.51%EV -5.97%E -3.33%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -13.12%E -3.32%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 04:30
Casumo🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.51%EV -5.97%E -3.33%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -13.12%E -3.32%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 04:29
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.51%EV -5.97%E -3.33%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.89%EV -13.12%E -3.32%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-22 04:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -14.22%E -3.65%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-22 05:29
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -14.22%E -3.65%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-22 05:30
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -14.22%E -3.65%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-22 05:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -14.22%E -3.65%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -13.39%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-22 05:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.59%EV -7.55%E -4.29%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -14.22%E -3.65%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.58%EV -14.66%E -4.38%K -6.24%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-22 04:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.58%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.99%EV -15.32%E -3.98%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%EV -14.66%E -4.38%K -6.24%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-22 04:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.58%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.99%EV -15.32%E -3.98%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%EV -14.66%E -4.38%K -6.24%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-22 04:30
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -16.42%E -4.32%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.84%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-22 14:04
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -8.07%E -4.61%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -16.42%E -4.32%K -5.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.84%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-22 06:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.60%EV -10.70%E -6.29%K -15.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.94%EV -17.52%E -4.67%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.47%EV -17.21%E -5.30%K -7.65%G +0.000%16.3%2026-08-22 04:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.50%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.79%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-08-22 12:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.58%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.66%1.2%2026-08-22 15:10
Matchbook◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.36%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.08%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.56%1.6%2026-08-22 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.14%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.41%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%2.1%2026-08-22 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.14%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.41%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%2.1%2026-08-22 15:20
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.82%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.41%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.78%2.1%2026-08-22 15:20