Language:English
AD Ceuta FC v Real Valladolid CF
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AD Ceuta FC (Local)
Prediction 30.20%3.31fair odd
EV -0.653%
Edge -0.198%
Kelly -0.285%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.68%30.20%30.15%32.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.993.003.2938.02%33.44%33.33%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Real Valladolid CF (Visit)
Prediction 40.35%2.48fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.41
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.91%40.40%40.31%41.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.282.302.4148.78%43.79%43.48%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.45%3.40fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -0.848%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.14%29.40%29.53%31.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.133.3034.48%32.00%32.00%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AD Ceuta FC (Local): 30.20%; Real Valladolid CF (Visit): 40.35%; Draw: 29.45%. For AD Ceuta FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.29, with an expected value of -0.653%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.84%EV -0.653%E -0.198%K -0.285%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -8.41%E -3.70%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.37%EV -4.86%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-20 14:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.87%EV -2.16%E -0.667%K -0.965%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.16%EV -2.76%E -1.15%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.97%EV -4.86%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.37%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-20 14:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.37%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.37%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-20 14:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -3.37%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -4.88%E -1.55%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.32%EV -5.18%E -2.20%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -4.88%E -1.55%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 40.68%EV -8.81%E -3.90%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.14%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-20 14:13 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -5.18%E -2.20%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 40.96%EV -8.41%E -3.70%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.46%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.59%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.95%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-20 14:13 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-20 14:13 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-20 14:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -14.58%E -5.03%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-09-20 14:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -7.90%E -2.59%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -5.18%E -2.20%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-20 14:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.67%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.92%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.67%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.92%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -14.58%E -5.03%K -7.67%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -10.92%E -3.70%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -8.01%E -3.51%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.34%EV -10.92%E -3.70%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 40.32%EV -10.43%E -4.70%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.34%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 30.04%EV -11.83%E -4.05%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.42%EV -12.44%E -5.73%K -10.64%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 29.54%EV -12.52%E -4.22%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.43%E -4.29%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-20 14:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -13.03%E -4.53%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -13.03%E -4.53%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -13.03%E -4.53%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -13.03%E -4.53%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -13.03%E -4.53%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%EV -13.94%E -4.89%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -4.27%E -1.31%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 29.79%EV -13.94%E -4.89%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 41.42%EV -17.29%E -8.43%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 28.78%EV -13.11%E -4.44%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.45%EV -15.45%E -5.52%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.45%EV -15.45%E -5.52%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.45%EV -15.45%E -5.52%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.45%EV -15.45%E -5.52%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -15.45%E -5.52%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -16.96%E -6.17%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.96%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -16.96%E -6.17%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.96%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.48%EV -16.96%E -6.17%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.17%EV -8.01%E -3.51%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 32.55%EV -20.58%E -7.83%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 38.91%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-09-20 14:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.75% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58% | 0.6% | 2026-09-20 14:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.33% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06% | 0.8% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.56% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72% | 1.0% | 2026-09-20 14:09 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.96% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.25% | 1.7% | 2026-09-20 14:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.69% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.16% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15% | 2.1% | 2026-09-20 14:14 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.01% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.98% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.01% | 2.5% | 2026-09-20 14:14 |