L’École des cotesodds.school
Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)
+ Nouveau modèleTous les modèles

AD Ceuta FC v Real Valladolid CF

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-20 14:15 UTC

Score final : AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Real Valladolid CF

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

52 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

AD Ceuta FC (Local)

Prévision 30.20%3.31cote équitable
EV -0.653%
Avantage -0.198%
Kelly -0.285%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.29

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.68%30.20%30.15%32.59%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.632.993.003.2938.02%33.44%33.33%30.40%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Real Valladolid CF (Visiteur)

Prévision 40.35%2.48cote équitable
EV -2.76%
Avantage -1.15%
Kelly -1.96%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.41

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.91%40.40%40.31%41.79%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.052.282.302.4148.78%43.79%43.48%41.49%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 29.45%3.40cote équitable
EV -2.80%
Avantage -0.848%
Kelly -1.22%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
28.14%29.40%29.53%31.01%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.903.123.133.3034.48%32.00%32.00%30.30%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : AD Ceuta FC (Local) : 30.20% ; Real Valladolid CF (Visiteur) : 40.35% ; Match nul : 29.45%. Pour AD Ceuta FC (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.31. Aucun opérateur admissible ne proposait de cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil : la meilleure était 3.29, pour une espérance de -0.653% ; elle ne produisait pas d’espérance positive.

Cotes des opérateurs (52 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 28.84%EV -0.653%E -0.198%K -0.285%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -8.41%E -3.70%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.37%EV -4.86%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-20 14:14
Pinnacle🎯3.24I 30.86%NM 29.87%EV -2.16%E -0.667%K -0.965%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 40.16%EV -2.76%E -1.15%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.97%EV -4.86%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-20 14:04
LowVig.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.37%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 14:14
BetOnline.ag🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.37%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 14:09
BetAnything🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -3.37%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.63%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 14:14
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -3.37%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 14:09
DraftKings🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.08%EV -4.88%E -1.55%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.32%EV -5.18%E -2.20%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-20 14:04
Bovada🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -4.88%E -1.55%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.68%EV -8.81%E -3.90%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.14%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 14:13
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.48%EV -5.18%E -2.20%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-20 14:09
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 14:04
Marathon Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.96%EV -8.41%E -3.70%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 14:04
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 14:09
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-20 14:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 14:09
SportsBet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.46%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.59%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.95%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 14:09
betano_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 14:13
Bet Victor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 14:13
PlayUp🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 14:14
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.01%EV -6.39%E -2.06%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.97%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -14.58%E -5.03%K -7.67%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-20 14:14
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.04%EV -7.90%E -2.59%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.28%EV -5.18%E -2.20%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 14:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 14:09
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 14:09
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-20 14:14
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.67%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.92%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 14:09
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.67%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.92%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-20 14:09
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 14:09
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 14:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 14:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 14:09
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-20 14:09
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-20 14:09
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -9.41%E -3.14%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -14.58%E -5.03%K -7.67%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-20 14:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.66%EV -10.92%E -3.70%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.68%EV -8.01%E -3.51%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.66%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 14:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.34%EV -10.92%E -3.70%K -5.60%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.32%EV -10.43%E -4.70%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.34%EV -10.16%E -3.33%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 14:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 30.04%EV -11.83%E -4.05%K -6.16%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.42%EV -12.44%E -5.73%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.54%EV -12.52%E -4.22%K -6.36%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-20 14:04
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.43%E -4.29%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -8.69%E -2.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-20 14:14
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -13.03%E -4.53%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 14:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -13.03%E -4.53%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 14:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -13.03%E -4.53%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 14:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -13.03%E -4.53%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 14:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.54%EV -13.03%E -4.53%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -3.16%E -1.32%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.40%EV -2.80%E -0.848%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-20 14:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%EV -13.94%E -4.89%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -4.27%E -1.31%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 14:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 29.79%EV -13.94%E -4.89%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.42%EV -17.29%E -8.43%K -16.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.78%EV -13.11%E -4.44%K -6.72%G +0.000%17.8%2026-09-20 14:09
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.45%EV -15.45%E -5.52%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 14:04
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.45%EV -15.45%E -5.52%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 14:04
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.45%EV -15.45%E -5.52%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 14:04
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.45%EV -15.45%E -5.52%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.16%EV -6.39%E -2.75%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -5.75%E -1.80%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 14:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -15.45%E -5.52%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -9.22%E -4.10%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-20 14:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -16.96%E -6.17%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.96%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-20 14:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.59%EV -16.96%E -6.17%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.96%EV -7.20%E -3.13%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-20 14:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.48%EV -16.96%E -6.17%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.17%EV -8.01%E -3.51%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.35%EV -7.22%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 14:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 32.55%EV -20.58%E -7.83%K -12.63%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.91%EV -11.23%E -5.11%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -11.64%E -3.88%K -5.82%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-20 14:04
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.75%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-09-20 14:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.33%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-09-20 14:09
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.56%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%1.0%2026-09-20 14:09
Matchbook◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.25%1.7%2026-09-20 14:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.69%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.16%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.15%2.1%2026-09-20 14:14
Smarkets◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.01%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.98%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.01%2.5%2026-09-20 14:14