L’École des cotes

Villarreal v Real Sociedad

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-20 20:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Villarreal (Local)

Prévision 48.86%2.05cote équitable
EV -2.29%
Avantage -1.14%
Kelly -2.29%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
46.98%48.75%48.94%50.06%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.831.931.942.0054.64%51.82%51.41%50.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Real Sociedad (Visiteur)

Prévision 25.11%3.98cote équitable
EV -0.804%
Avantage -0.204%
Kelly -0.273%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.95

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.45%25.23%25.08%26.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.403.753.753.9529.41%26.70%26.67%25.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.03%3.84cote équitable
EV -1.08%
Avantage -0.285%
Kelly -0.387%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.80

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
24.97%26.02%25.98%27.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.613.653.8032.26%27.67%27.40%26.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -2.29%E -1.14%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -9.59%E -2.66%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 15:10
1xBet1.99I 50.25%NM 48.69%EV -2.78%E -1.39%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.97%EV -2.56%E -0.660%K -0.890%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.33%EV -4.21%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-20 19:50
Pinnacle1.98I 50.51%NM 49.08%EV -3.26%E -1.65%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.73%EV -1.31%E -0.332%K -0.446%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.19%EV -3.43%E -0.924%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-20 19:40
Coolbet1.98I 50.51%NM 48.95%EV -3.26%E -1.65%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.85%EV -2.06%E -0.528%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-20 19:55
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 47.78%EV -3.26%E -1.65%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -10.85%E -3.06%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 19:00
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.78%EV -3.26%E -1.65%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -10.85%E -3.06%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 19:00
Marathon Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 49.03%EV -3.75%E -1.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.51%EV -1.06%E -0.268%K -0.359%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.46%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-20 19:50
BetUS1.97I 50.76%NM 48.46%EV -3.75%E -1.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.46%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.08%EV -4.73%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 19:00
BetOnline.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 49.27%EV -4.24%E -2.16%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV -2.06%E -0.528%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.96%EV -3.17%E -0.851%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-20 14:44
LowVig.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 49.27%EV -4.24%E -2.16%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV -2.06%E -0.528%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.96%EV -3.17%E -0.851%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-20 14:45
Unibet (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 49.66%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.52%EV -0.804%E -0.204%K -0.273%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.82%EV -2.39%E -0.636%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 19:05
Svenska Spel1.95I 51.28%NM 49.66%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.52%EV -0.804%E -0.204%K -0.273%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.82%EV -2.39%E -0.636%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 19:05
ATG (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 49.66%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.52%EV -0.804%E -0.204%K -0.273%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.82%EV -2.39%E -0.636%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 19:05
Codere (IT)1.95I 51.28%NM 49.02%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.15%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.83%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-20 19:55
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.84%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 19:00
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -9.59%E -2.66%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -1.08%E -0.285%K -0.387%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-20 19:35
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-20 19:55
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 18:55
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 19:10
BetMGM1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 19:20
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 18:00
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 15:14
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -12.11%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 18:29
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 17:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 19:10
Neds1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 19:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 19:10
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-20 17:40
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -12.11%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 18:59
Unibet (NL)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.79%EV -5.22%E -2.69%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.45%EV -0.804%E -0.204%K -0.273%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.76%EV -2.39%E -0.636%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-20 19:05
Betclic (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.57%EV -5.22%E -2.69%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.66%EV -2.06%E -0.528%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.78%EV -2.91%E -0.779%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-20 19:53
Bovada1.94I 51.55%NM 48.79%EV -5.22%E -2.69%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 19:40
Bet Right1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -5.22%E -2.69%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -12.11%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-20 19:45
Bet Victor1.93I 51.81%NM 49.11%EV -5.71%E -2.96%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -2.39%E -0.636%K -0.867%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 19:55
Casumo1.92I 52.08%NM 49.39%EV -6.20%E -3.23%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -3.32%E -0.861%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 19:05
Grosvenor1.92I 52.08%NM 49.39%EV -6.20%E -3.23%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -3.32%E -0.861%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 19:04
betPARX1.92I 52.08%NM 49.39%EV -6.20%E -3.23%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -3.32%E -0.861%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 19:04
Bally Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.39%EV -6.20%E -3.23%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -3.32%E -0.861%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 19:05
TAB1.92I 52.08%NM 48.73%EV -6.20%E -3.23%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 16:20
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.37%EV -6.68%E -3.50%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 19:55
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -6.68%E -3.50%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 17:00
NetBet (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.33%EV -6.68%E -3.50%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -8.34%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-20 19:00
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -7.17%E -3.77%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 00:00
Winamax (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -7.17%E -3.77%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 19:44
PMU (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.63%EV -7.17%E -3.77%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-20 16:40
TABtouch1.89I 52.91%NM 49.62%EV -7.66%E -4.05%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 19:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.62%EV -7.66%E -4.05%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 19:05
Unibet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.62%EV -7.66%E -4.05%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 19:05
Virgin Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 48.78%EV -7.66%E -4.05%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -8.34%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-20 19:05
LiveScore Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 48.78%EV -7.66%E -4.05%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -8.34%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-20 19:04
BetRivers1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -8.15%E -4.33%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 19:05
Parions Sport (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.25%EV -8.15%E -4.33%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 19:50
Winamax (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -8.15%E -4.33%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -9.59%E -2.66%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 19:20
Unibet (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -8.64%E -4.62%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 19:49
Fliff1.87I 53.48%NM 48.51%EV -8.64%E -4.62%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -9.59%E -2.66%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 18:50
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -8.64%E -4.62%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -12.11%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-20 19:34
LeoVegas1.85I 54.05%NM 49.64%EV -9.62%E -5.20%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.87%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-20 19:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.98%EV -10.59%E -5.79%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.29%EV -14.62%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.73%EV -19.31%E -6.23%K -9.19%G +0.000%16.3%2026-03-20 17:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-03-20 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-03-20 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-03-20 19:55
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-03-20 19:55
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 48.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.2%2026-03-20 19:55
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 49.55%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.23%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.23%3.0%2026-03-20 19:55