La escuela de los momios

Villarreal v Real Sociedad

Inicio: 2026-03-20 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Villarreal (Local)

Predicción 48.86%2.05momio equitativo
EV -2.29%
Ventaja -1.14%
Kelly -2.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.98%48.75%48.94%50.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.831.931.942.0054.64%51.82%51.41%50.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Sociedad (Visitante)

Predicción 25.11%3.98momio equitativo
EV -0.804%
Ventaja -0.204%
Kelly -0.273%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.45%25.23%25.08%26.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.753.753.9529.41%26.70%26.67%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.03%3.84momio equitativo
EV -1.08%
Ventaja -0.285%
Kelly -0.387%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.97%26.02%25.98%27.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.613.653.8032.26%27.67%27.40%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -2.29%E -1.14%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -9.59%E -2.66%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 15:10
1xBet1.99I 50.25%NM 48.69%EV -2.78%E -1.39%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.97%EV -2.56%E -0.660%K -0.890%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.33%EV -4.21%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-20 19:50
Pinnacle1.98I 50.51%NM 49.08%EV -3.26%E -1.65%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.73%EV -1.31%E -0.332%K -0.446%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.19%EV -3.43%E -0.924%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-20 19:40
Coolbet1.98I 50.51%NM 48.95%EV -3.26%E -1.65%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.85%EV -2.06%E -0.528%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-20 19:55
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 47.78%EV -3.26%E -1.65%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -10.85%E -3.06%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 19:00
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.78%EV -3.26%E -1.65%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -10.85%E -3.06%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 19:00
Marathon Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 49.03%EV -3.75%E -1.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.51%EV -1.06%E -0.268%K -0.359%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.46%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-20 19:50
BetUS1.97I 50.76%NM 48.46%EV -3.75%E -1.90%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.46%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.08%EV -4.73%E -1.29%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 19:00
BetOnline.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 49.27%EV -4.24%E -2.16%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV -2.06%E -0.528%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.96%EV -3.17%E -0.851%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-20 14:44
LowVig.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 49.27%EV -4.24%E -2.16%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.76%EV -2.06%E -0.528%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.96%EV -3.17%E -0.851%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-20 14:45
Unibet (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 49.66%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.52%EV -0.804%E -0.204%K -0.273%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.82%EV -2.39%E -0.636%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 19:05
Svenska Spel1.95I 51.28%NM 49.66%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.52%EV -0.804%E -0.204%K -0.273%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.82%EV -2.39%E -0.636%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 19:05
ATG (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 49.66%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.52%EV -0.804%E -0.204%K -0.273%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.82%EV -2.39%E -0.636%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-20 19:05
Codere (IT)1.95I 51.28%NM 49.02%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.15%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.83%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-20 19:55
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.84%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 19:00
theScore Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -9.59%E -2.66%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -1.08%E -0.285%K -0.387%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-20 19:35
SportsBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-20 19:55
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 18:55
Coral1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 19:10
BetMGM1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 19:20
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 18:00
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 15:14
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -12.11%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 18:29
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 17:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 19:10
Neds1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 19:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 19:10
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -11.50%E -3.38%K -4.79%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-20 17:40
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -12.11%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 18:59
Unibet (NL)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.79%EV -5.22%E -2.69%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.45%EV -0.804%E -0.204%K -0.273%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.76%EV -2.39%E -0.636%K -0.867%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-20 19:05
Betclic (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 49.57%EV -5.22%E -2.69%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.66%EV -2.06%E -0.528%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.78%EV -2.91%E -0.779%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-20 19:53
Bovada1.94I 51.55%NM 48.79%EV -5.22%E -2.69%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 19:40
Bet Right1.94I 51.55%NM 47.94%EV -5.22%E -2.69%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.57%EV -12.11%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-20 19:45
Bet Victor1.93I 51.81%NM 49.11%EV -5.71%E -2.96%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -2.39%E -0.636%K -0.867%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 19:55
Casumo1.92I 52.08%NM 49.39%EV -6.20%E -3.23%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -3.32%E -0.861%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 19:05
Grosvenor1.92I 52.08%NM 49.39%EV -6.20%E -3.23%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -3.32%E -0.861%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 19:04
betPARX1.92I 52.08%NM 49.39%EV -6.20%E -3.23%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -3.32%E -0.861%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 19:04
Bally Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.39%EV -6.20%E -3.23%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -3.32%E -0.861%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 19:05
TAB1.92I 52.08%NM 48.73%EV -6.20%E -3.23%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 16:20
Sky Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 49.37%EV -6.68%E -3.50%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 19:55
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -6.68%E -3.50%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-20 17:00
NetBet (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.33%EV -6.68%E -3.50%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -8.34%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-20 19:00
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -7.17%E -3.77%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 00:00
Winamax (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -7.17%E -3.77%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 19:44
PMU (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.63%EV -7.17%E -3.77%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-20 16:40
TABtouch1.89I 52.91%NM 49.62%EV -7.66%E -4.05%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 19:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 49.62%EV -7.66%E -4.05%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 19:05
Unibet1.89I 52.91%NM 49.62%EV -7.66%E -4.05%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -4.99%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-20 19:05
Virgin Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 48.78%EV -7.66%E -4.05%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -8.34%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-20 19:05
LiveScore Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 48.78%EV -7.66%E -4.05%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.26%EV -8.34%E -2.28%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-20 19:04
BetRivers1.88I 53.19%NM 49.58%EV -8.15%E -4.33%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-20 19:05
Parions Sport (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 49.25%EV -8.15%E -4.33%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 19:50
Winamax (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -8.15%E -4.33%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -9.59%E -2.66%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.29%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-20 19:20
Unibet (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -8.64%E -4.62%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -3.69%E -0.996%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 19:49
Fliff1.87I 53.48%NM 48.51%EV -8.64%E -4.62%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -9.59%E -2.66%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.29%EV -10.19%E -2.95%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-20 18:50
BoyleSports1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -8.64%E -4.62%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -12.11%E -3.46%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -8.89%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-20 19:34
LeoVegas1.85I 54.05%NM 49.64%EV -9.62%E -5.20%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -5.83%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.87%EV -7.59%E -2.14%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-20 19:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.98%EV -10.59%E -5.79%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.29%EV -14.62%E -4.30%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.73%EV -19.31%E -6.23%K -9.19%G +0.000%16.3%2026-03-20 17:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-03-20 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-03-20 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-03-20 19:55
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-03-20 19:55
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 48.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.36%1.2%2026-03-20 19:55
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 49.55%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.23%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.23%3.0%2026-03-20 19:55