L’École des cotes

Villarreal v Atlético Madrid

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-24 19:00 UTC

Score final : Villarreal 5–1 Atlético Madrid

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

58 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Villarreal (Local)

Prévision 38.01%2.63cote équitable
EV -1.18%
Avantage -0.454%
Kelly -0.738%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
36.36%37.95%38.07%39.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.252.482.482.6044.44%40.36%40.32%38.46%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Atlético Madrid (Visiteur)

Prévision 37.36%2.68cote équitable
EV -1.00%
Avantage -0.378%
Kelly -0.608%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.65

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
36.01%37.44%37.34%39.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.522.542.6543.48%39.66%39.37%37.74%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.63%4.06cote équitable
EV -1.46%
Avantage -0.365%
Kelly -0.487%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.04%24.61%24.59%26.44%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.203.803.804.0031.25%26.30%26.32%25.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (58 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 38.01%EV -1.18%E -0.454%K -0.738%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 37.29%EV -1.00%E -0.378%K -0.608%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%EV -1.46%E -0.365%K -0.487%G +0.000%1.2%2026-05-24 18:40
ATG (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 38.01%EV -1.18%E -0.454%K -0.738%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 37.29%EV -1.00%E -0.378%K -0.608%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%EV -1.46%E -0.365%K -0.487%G +0.000%1.2%2026-05-24 18:40
Svenska Spel2.60I 38.46%NM 38.01%EV -1.18%E -0.454%K -0.738%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 37.29%EV -1.00%E -0.378%K -0.608%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%EV -1.46%E -0.365%K -0.487%G +0.000%1.2%2026-05-24 18:40
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 37.38%EV -1.18%E -0.454%K -0.738%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.38%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-24 18:20
Tipico (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.36%EV -1.18%E -0.454%K -0.738%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -10.34%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -3.92%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-24 18:50
Marathon Bet2.59I 38.61%NM 37.41%EV -1.56%E -0.602%K -0.981%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.00%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.59%EV -2.94%E -0.746%K -0.999%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-24 18:50
Pinnacle2.58I 38.76%NM 37.74%EV -1.94%E -0.752%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.74%EV -3.62%E -1.40%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.52%EV -2.20%E -0.554%K -0.741%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-24 18:50
NordicBet2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -1.94%E -0.752%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -3.62%E -1.40%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -8.85%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-24 18:50
Betsson2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -1.94%E -0.752%K -1.23%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07%EV -3.62%E -1.40%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -8.85%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-24 18:50
LowVig.ag2.56I 39.06%NM 37.75%EV -2.70%E -1.05%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.02%EV -2.50%E -0.957%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.23%EV -5.65%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-24 18:50
BetOnline.ag2.56I 39.06%NM 37.75%EV -2.70%E -1.05%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.02%EV -2.50%E -0.957%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.23%EV -5.65%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-24 18:50
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 38.19%EV -3.08%E -1.21%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.46%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.35%EV -1.46%E -0.365%K -0.487%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-24 18:40
DraftKings2.55I 39.22%NM 37.68%EV -3.08%E -1.21%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.68%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.64%EV -3.92%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-24 18:50
1xBet2.54I 39.37%NM 38.16%EV -3.46%E -1.36%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.42%EV -3.24%E -1.25%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.42%EV -2.20%E -0.554%K -0.741%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-24 18:50
Bovada2.53I 39.53%NM 37.51%EV -3.84%E -1.52%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.51%EV -5.49%E -2.17%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -6.39%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-24 18:49
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 38.18%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.71%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.12%EV -6.39%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-24 18:00
Unibet (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.15%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.40%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.45%EV -3.92%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-24 18:50
theScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.10%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.10%EV -6.61%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -1.46%E -0.365%K -0.487%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-24 18:50
BetUS2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -7.62%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-24 18:50
Codere (IT)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.03%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.28%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.69%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-24 18:40
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.90%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.16%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -6.39%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-24 18:50
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.90%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.16%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -6.39%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-24 18:50
Bet Victor2.50I 40.00%NM 37.90%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.16%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.94%EV -6.39%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-24 18:39
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 37.75%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.75%EV -6.61%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-24 18:49
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%EV -10.34%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -1.46%E -0.365%K -0.487%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-24 18:50
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.61%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.85%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-24 18:50
TAB2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.61%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.85%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-24 18:40
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.47%E -3.46%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -8.85%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-24 18:50
Casumo2.48I 40.32%NM 38.22%EV -5.74%E -2.31%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.17%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-24 18:40
Grosvenor2.48I 40.32%NM 38.22%EV -5.74%E -2.31%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.17%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-24 18:40
Bally Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 38.22%EV -5.74%E -2.31%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.17%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-24 18:40
betPARX2.48I 40.32%NM 38.22%EV -5.74%E -2.31%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.17%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.62%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-24 18:40
Coral2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.66%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.44%EV -3.92%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-24 18:40
BetMGM2.45I 40.82%NM 38.63%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -3.92%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-24 18:39
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.57%EV -6.61%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -3.92%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-24 18:40
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.61%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.56%EV -6.39%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-24 18:50
Fanatics2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.61%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.56%EV -6.39%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-24 18:10
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -8.47%E -3.46%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.90%EV -3.92%E -1.01%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-24 18:50
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.22%EV -6.61%E -2.64%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -7.62%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-24 18:49
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -8.47%E -3.46%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -5.16%E -1.34%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-24 18:50
PlayUp2.45I 40.82%NM 37.56%EV -6.88%E -2.81%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.56%EV -8.47%E -3.46%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -8.85%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-24 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -7.64%E -3.14%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -7.35%E -2.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -8.85%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-24 18:40
Unibet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -7.64%E -3.14%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -7.35%E -2.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -8.85%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-24 18:40
TABtouch2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -7.64%E -3.14%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.16%EV -7.35%E -2.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -8.85%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-24 18:40
Virgin Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.80%EV -7.64%E -3.14%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.04%EV -7.35%E -2.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -10.08%E -2.76%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-24 18:40
LiveScore Bet2.43I 41.15%NM 37.80%EV -7.64%E -3.14%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.04%EV -7.35%E -2.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -10.08%E -2.76%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-24 18:40
NetBet (FR)2.42I 41.32%NM 38.09%EV -8.02%E -3.31%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.32%EV -7.73%E -3.13%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -7.62%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-24 18:38
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -6.39%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-24 18:40
Neds2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -7.62%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-24 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -7.62%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-24 18:39
Winamax (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -8.47%E -3.46%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -6.39%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-24 18:39
BetRivers2.40I 41.67%NM 38.09%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.86%EV -7.35%E -2.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -10.08%E -2.76%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-24 18:40
Fliff2.40I 41.67%NM 37.76%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.76%EV -10.34%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -8.85%E -2.39%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-24 18:50
PMU (FR)2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -9.54%E -4.01%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.90%EV -8.47%E -3.46%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -11.31%E -3.14%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-24 18:40
Betclic (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.26%EV -10.68%E -4.55%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.46%EV -5.49%E -2.17%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -6.39%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-24 18:50
LeoVegas2.35I 42.55%NM 38.17%EV -10.68%E -4.55%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.91%EV -9.22%E -3.79%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.31%E -3.14%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-24 18:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 36.78%EV -12.58%E -5.47%K -9.68%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.78%EV -14.08%E -6.12%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.44%EV -21.17%E -6.62%K -9.62%G +0.000%18.2%2026-05-24 18:40
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 38.90%EV -14.48%E -6.44%K -11.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.06%EV -14.08%E -6.12%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.04%EV -6.39%E -1.68%K -2.28%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-24 18:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook2.60I 38.46%NM 38.40%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.25%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.35%0.2%2026-05-24 18:50
Smarkets2.60I 38.46%NM 38.29%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.43%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.28%0.4%2026-05-24 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.88%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-05-24 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.88%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-05-24 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.88%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-05-24 18:40
Kalshi2.63I 38.02%NM 37.25%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.26%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-05-24 18:50