Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valencia v Girona

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valencia (Local)

Prediction 45.79%2.18fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.726%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.00%45.86%45.71%47.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.052.052.1551.28%48.73%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Girona (Visit)

Prediction 26.70%3.75fair odd
EV +1.45%
Edge +0.382%
Kelly +0.518%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.52%26.68%26.74%27.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.553.8030.30%28.12%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.52%3.63fair odd
EV -0.940%
Edge -0.261%
Kelly -0.361%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.42%27.46%27.55%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.403.403.6033.33%29.38%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valencia (Local): 45.79%; Girona (Visit): 26.70%; Draw: 27.52%. For Girona (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.45%EV -3.85%E -1.83%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.67%EV +1.45%E +0.382%K +0.518%G +0.008%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.87%EV -3.69%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-23 14:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.45%EV -3.85%E -1.83%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.67%EV +1.45%E +0.382%K +0.518%G +0.008%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.87%EV -3.69%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-23 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.45%EV -3.85%E -1.83%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.67%EV +1.45%E +0.382%K +0.518%G +0.008%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.87%EV -3.69%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-23 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.45%EV -3.85%E -1.83%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.67%EV +1.45%E +0.382%K +0.518%G +0.008%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.87%EV -3.69%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-23 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.15%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV +0.116%E +0.031%K +0.042%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.07%EV -1.77%E -0.494%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 03:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.15%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV +0.116%E +0.031%K +0.042%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.07%EV -1.77%E -0.494%K -0.687%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-23 03:35
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -1.22%E -0.330%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 14:20
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -1.22%E -0.330%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 14:20
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -1.22%E -0.330%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 14:20
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -1.22%E -0.330%K -0.452%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 14:19
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.77%EV -1.56%E -0.726%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.74%EV -1.75%E -0.476%K -0.654%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.49%EV -1.49%E -0.416%K -0.578%G +0.000%1.6%2026-04-24 03:15
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.37%EV -7.51%E -3.72%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -2.55%E -0.700%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.82%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 14:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.37%EV -7.51%E -3.72%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -2.55%E -0.700%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.82%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 14:19
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.37%EV -7.51%E -3.72%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -2.55%E -0.700%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.82%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.37%EV -7.51%E -3.72%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -2.55%E -0.700%K -0.964%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -7.82%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 14:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.71%EV -2.93%E -1.38%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.77%EV -3.36%E -0.927%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.53%EV -3.14%E -0.892%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-24 03:14
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.80%EV -3.85%E -1.83%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.72%EV -3.89%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.48%EV -3.69%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-23 14:18
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -3.85%E -1.83%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -3.89%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-24 00:44
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.89%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 14:09
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.89%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 14:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.89%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 11:50
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.89%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 11:50
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.89%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 11:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -3.89%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 11:49
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.84%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -3.89%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -7.82%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 11:50
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -8.43%E -4.21%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -3.89%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 16:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.46%EV -8.43%E -4.21%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -3.89%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.73%EV -7.82%E -2.33%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 14:19
LeoVegas🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.64%EV -9.80%E -4.98%K -10.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -3.89%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -9.19%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 14:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -4.31%E -2.06%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -5.22%E -1.47%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.60%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-24 02:59
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.77%E -2.29%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -5.22%E -1.47%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.54%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-22 15:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.22%E -1.47%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-24 02:59
Pinnacle🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.15%EV -3.39%E -1.61%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.91%EV -5.49%E -1.55%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.94%EV -6.17%E -1.81%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-24 03:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -6.56%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -0.940%E -0.261%K -0.361%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-24 02:59
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -3.85%E -1.83%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.56%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 15:40
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -3.85%E -1.83%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.56%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 14:09
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -3.85%E -1.83%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -6.56%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 14:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.56%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -3.69%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-23 16:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.33%EV -4.77%E -2.29%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -6.56%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-24 03:00
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -6.56%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.19%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 14:09
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -6.56%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.19%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-24 03:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -8.43%E -4.21%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.56%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-23 16:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.55%EV -9.34%E -4.72%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -6.56%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 16:40
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -10.72%E -5.50%K -11.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -6.56%E -1.87%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 18:20
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.86%EV -2.93%E -1.38%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -7.89%E -2.29%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.57%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-24 03:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.06%EV -10.26%E -5.23%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -7.89%E -2.29%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-23 14:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.06%EV -10.26%E -5.23%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -7.89%E -2.29%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-23 14:20
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -3.85%E -1.83%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -9.23%E -2.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -3.69%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 14:25
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.85%E -1.83%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.23%E -2.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.44%E -1.90%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-24 03:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.23%E -2.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.69%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 14:24
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -9.23%E -2.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.69%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -8.43%E -4.21%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.23%E -2.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -3.69%E -1.05%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 02:59
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.23%E -2.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.19%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 15:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.23%E -2.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.19%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 15:35
Everygame🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.23%E -2.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.19%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 14:09
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -8.43%E -4.21%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.23%E -2.71%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -9.19%E -2.79%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-22 15:44
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -10.56%E -3.15%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -5.07%E -1.47%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 14:25
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.23%EV -4.77%E -2.29%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -10.56%E -3.15%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -10.57%E -3.25%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-24 03:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -8.43%E -4.21%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.90%E -3.61%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -17.45%E -5.82%K -8.72%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-23 14:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 46.17%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%1.2%2026-04-24 03:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.74%1.6%2026-04-24 02:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.74%1.6%2026-04-24 03:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.01%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.74%1.6%2026-04-24 03:15
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 46.03%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.47%2.0%2026-04-23 15:40
Smarkets2.12I 47.17%NM 45.73%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.70%3.1%2026-04-24 03:20