La escuela de los momios

Valencia v Celta Vigo

Inicio: 2026-04-05 14:15 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Valencia (Local)

Predicción 40.44%2.47momio equitativo
EV -2.54%
Ventaja -1.05%
Kelly -1.80%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.41

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.22%40.51%40.49%41.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.312.302.4145.45%43.28%43.48%41.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Celta Vigo (Visitante)

Predicción 30.13%3.32momio equitativo
EV -1.19%
Ventaja -0.362%
Kelly -0.521%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.49%30.15%30.10%30.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.123.123.2834.72%32.07%32.10%30.49%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 29.43%3.40momio equitativo
EV -1.40%
Ventaja -0.418%
Kelly -0.596%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.51%29.34%29.42%30.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.213.213.3535.71%31.19%31.15%29.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.41I 41.49%NM 40.26%EV -2.54%E -1.05%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.61%EV -4.50%E -1.42%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.14%EV -1.99%E -0.597%K -0.853%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-05 14:01
LowVig.ag2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.94%E -1.23%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.13%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.58%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 03:10
BetOnline.ag2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.94%E -1.23%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.13%EV -3.30%E -1.03%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.58%EV -3.75%E -1.15%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 03:10
Pinnacle2.39I 41.84%NM 40.69%EV -3.34%E -1.40%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.65%EV -1.19%E -0.362%K -0.521%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.65%EV -3.46%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-05 14:05
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -3.75%E -1.58%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.98%EV -2.09%E -0.644%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.08%EV -1.40%E -0.418%K -0.596%G +0.000%2.6%2026-04-05 13:20
Coolbet2.38I 42.02%NM 40.76%EV -3.75%E -1.58%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.85%EV -2.09%E -0.644%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39%EV -2.87%E -0.870%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-05 09:19
Marathon Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 40.65%EV -3.75%E -1.58%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.86%EV -2.39%E -0.739%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.49%EV -3.46%E -1.05%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 14:01
NordicBet2.38I 42.02%NM 40.01%EV -3.75%E -1.58%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.23%EV -5.10%E -1.62%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.76%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 14:05
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 40.01%EV -3.75%E -1.58%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.23%EV -5.10%E -1.62%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.76%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 14:04
Bet Victor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.82%EV -3.75%E -1.58%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-05 14:09
Codere (IT)2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -4.15%E -1.75%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.32%EV -5.10%E -1.62%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.39%EV -4.34%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-05 14:01
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 41.24%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.82%EV -2.09%E -0.644%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.93%EV -1.40%E -0.418%K -0.596%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-05 13:20
Svenska Spel2.35I 42.55%NM 41.24%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.82%EV -2.09%E -0.644%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.93%EV -1.40%E -0.418%K -0.596%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-05 13:20
BetUS2.35I 42.55%NM 40.69%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.88%EV -3.60%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.42%EV -4.34%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-05 14:00
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.69%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.88%EV -3.60%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.42%EV -4.34%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-05 13:40
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -3.60%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-05 13:55
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -3.60%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-05 13:50
Fanatics2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 21:24
BetMGM2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -4.96%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 13:59
Unibet (NL)2.33I 42.92%NM 41.45%EV -5.77%E -2.48%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.72%EV -2.09%E -0.644%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.83%EV -1.40%E -0.418%K -0.596%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-05 13:19
Betclic (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.62%EV -6.18%E -2.66%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.11%EV -5.71%E -1.82%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.27%EV -5.23%E -1.62%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 13:53
betPARX2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -3.60%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -2.87%E -0.870%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 13:19
Bally Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -3.60%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -2.87%E -0.870%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 13:19
Grosvenor2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -3.60%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -2.87%E -0.870%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 13:19
Casumo2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -3.60%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -2.87%E -0.870%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-05 13:19
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -3.60%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 13:55
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -3.60%E -1.12%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 14:09
Tipico (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -2.87%E -0.870%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 14:10
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -2.87%E -0.870%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 13:50
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -2.87%E -0.870%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-05 14:05
Sky Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -4.34%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-05 04:09
Betr (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 14:04
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -8.12%E -2.66%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.34%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 13:20
Bet Right2.30I 43.48%NM 40.44%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.50%EV -8.12%E -2.66%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-02 02:50
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.76%E -2.83%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-05 11:19
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.76%E -2.83%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-02 11:55
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.76%E -2.83%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-05 13:40
TAB2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.76%E -2.83%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-05 14:04
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.29%E -2.31%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-05 14:05
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -6.98%E -3.04%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -8.76%E -2.83%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-05 05:40
LeoVegas (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -7.79%E -3.42%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -5.10%E -1.62%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -4.34%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 13:19
TABtouch2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -7.79%E -3.42%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -5.10%E -1.62%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -4.34%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 13:19
Unibet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV -7.79%E -3.42%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -5.10%E -1.62%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -4.34%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 13:19
BetRivers2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -9.01%E -4.00%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.10%E -1.62%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -4.34%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 13:19
PMU (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -9.01%E -4.00%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -4.34%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 08:55
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -9.01%E -4.00%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -11.13%E -3.77%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-05 13:54
Fliff2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.01%E -4.00%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.76%E -2.83%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-05 13:55
NetBet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.20%EV -9.01%E -4.00%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.15%EV -9.62%E -3.21%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -10.23%E -3.35%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-05 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.01%E -4.00%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.64%E -4.36%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.70%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-05 14:01
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.01%E -4.00%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.64%E -4.36%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.70%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-05 14:01
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.01%E -4.00%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.64%E -4.36%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.70%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-05 14:01
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.01%E -4.00%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.64%E -4.36%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.70%E -3.90%K -5.85%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-05 14:01
Virgin Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -9.82%E -4.40%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-05 13:19
LiveScore Bet2.23I 44.84%NM 41.39%EV -9.82%E -4.40%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.77%EV -6.61%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-05 13:20
LeoVegas2.23I 44.84%NM 41.19%EV -9.82%E -4.40%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -8.12%E -2.66%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -5.81%E -1.82%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-05 13:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 39.22%EV -11.03%E -5.01%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.96%EV -13.24%E -4.60%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.82%EV -17.59%E -6.28%K -9.77%G +0.000%15.9%2026-04-05 13:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.48I 40.32%NM 40.13%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16%0.5%2026-04-05 14:10
Matchbook2.48I 40.32%NM 40.13%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16%0.5%2026-04-05 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%0.9%2026-04-05 14:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%0.9%2026-04-05 14:04
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.61%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.67%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-04-05 13:50
Smarkets2.46I 40.65%NM 39.96%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.25%1.7%2026-04-05 14:04