The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sevilla v Valencia

2026-09-13 19:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sevilla (Local)

Prediction 41.53%2.41fair odd
EV +0.491%
Edge +0.203%
Kelly +0.346%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.23%41.53%41.93%41.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.302.302.4245.45%43.56%43.48%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Valencia (Visit)

Prediction 28.79%3.47fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -0.797%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.59%28.79%28.59%29.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.263.253.3831.25%30.68%30.77%29.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.69%3.37fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -0.895%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.48%29.69%29.48%30.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.203.2733.33%31.71%31.25%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sevilla (Local): 41.53%; Valencia (Visit): 28.79%; Draw: 29.69%. For Sevilla (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.42, producing a positive expected value of +0.491%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.72%EV +0.491%E +0.203%K +0.346%G +0.002%3.38I 29.59%NM 29.15%EV -2.70%E -0.797%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 30.13%EV -2.93%E -0.895%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-30 18:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.72%EV -1.17%E -0.491%K -0.848%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.19%EV -4.42%E -1.33%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.09%EV -4.41%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-30 18:30
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -4.49%E -1.95%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -5.00%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 18:00
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.49%E -1.95%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.49%E -1.95%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:05
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -4.49%E -1.95%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -4.49%E -1.95%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.94%E -3.65%K -5.47%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.57%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.00%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:00
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -6.57%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -5.00%E -1.51%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.00%E -1.56%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:00
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.57%E -2.92%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.44%E -1.98%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 18:00
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.64%E -3.93%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.88%E -2.46%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.97%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 41.00%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.89%2.86I 34.97%NM 30.11%16.1%2026-08-30 18:20