Language:English
Sevilla v Valencia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sevilla (Local)
Prediction 41.10%2.43fair odd
EV -0.123%
Edge -0.051%
Kelly -0.086%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.26%40.82%41.39%42.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.282.302.4347.62%43.93%43.48%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Valencia (Visit)
Prediction 28.92%3.46fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -0.929%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.85%29.08%28.65%30.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.213.203.3533.90%31.16%31.25%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 29.98%3.34fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.604%
Kelly -0.871%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.14%30.10%29.96%31.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.113.133.2734.48%32.14%32.00%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sevilla (Local): 41.10%; Valencia (Visit): 28.92%; Draw: 29.98%. For Sevilla (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.433. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.430, with an expected value of -0.123%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 40.51%EV -0.123%E -0.051%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.39%EV -3.11%E -0.929%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 30.10%EV -1.98%E -0.604%K -0.871%G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-08-31 19:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.54%EV -1.77%E -0.739%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.36%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 30.09%EV -3.48%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-31 19:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -2.18%E -0.915%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -13.23%E -4.41%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -13.07%E -4.51%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-31 07:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -3.41%E -1.45%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.57%E -1.77%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 11:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -3.41%E -1.45%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.57%E -1.77%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 11:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -3.41%E -1.45%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -8.57%E -2.81%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-02 12:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.57%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.54%EV -3.11%E -0.929%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.88%EV -4.08%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-30 18:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -4.08%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 18:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.08%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 18:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.08%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 18:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.07%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.07%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-30 18:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -4.08%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 18:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -4.08%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 11:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.07%E -2.28%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-30 18:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.07%E -2.28%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-30 18:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.97%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.57%E -2.81%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-30 18:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.58%E -4.35%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -5.57%E -1.77%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-30 18:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.58%E -4.35%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.07%E -2.28%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-31 11:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.74%EV -10.40%E -4.77%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.83%EV -8.57%E -2.81%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-30 17:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -13.69%E -6.52%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -10.07%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-30 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.26%EV -13.69%E -6.52%K -12.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.37%EV -14.68%E -4.98%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.37%EV -11.57%E -3.92%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-08-30 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 38.84% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 30.58% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 30.58% | 16.0% | 2026-09-04 09:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.85I 54.05%NM 38.02% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 30.99% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 30.99% | 42.2% | 2026-08-30 18:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 44.65% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 27.68% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 27.68% | 111.3% | 2026-09-01 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 44.65% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 27.68% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 27.68% | 111.3% | 2026-09-01 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 44.65% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 27.68% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 27.68% | 111.3% | 2026-09-01 14:55 |