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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Sevilla v Valencia

开赛时间： 2026-09-13 19:00 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

22 家博彩公司 (9 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Sevilla (主队)

预测 41.10%2.43公平赔率
EV -0.123%
优势 -0.051%
Kelly -0.086%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.43

博彩公司预测分布
38.26%40.82%41.39%42.44%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.102.282.302.4347.62%43.93%43.48%41.15%最小值均值中位数最大值

Valencia (客队)

预测 28.92%3.46公平赔率
EV -3.11%
优势 -0.929%
Kelly -1.32%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.35

博彩公司预测分布
27.85%29.08%28.65%30.35%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.953.213.203.3533.90%31.16%31.25%29.85%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 29.98%3.34公平赔率
EV -1.98%
优势 -0.604%
Kelly -0.871%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.27

博彩公司预测分布
29.14%30.10%29.96%31.40%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.903.113.133.2734.48%32.14%32.00%30.58%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Sevilla (主队)：41.10%；Valencia (客队)：28.92%；平局：29.98%。 对于“Sevilla (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.433。 当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率：最佳赔率为2.430，期望值为-0.123%，未产生正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (22 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队平局利润率更新时间
1xBet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 40.51%EV -0.123%E -0.051%K -0.086%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.39%EV -3.11%E -0.929%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 30.10%EV -1.98%E -0.604%K -0.871%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-31 19:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.54%EV -1.77%E -0.739%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.36%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 30.09%EV -3.48%E -1.08%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-31 19:40
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -2.18%E -0.915%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -13.23%E -4.41%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -13.07%E -4.51%K -6.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-31 07:30
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -3.41%E -1.45%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.57%E -1.77%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 11:20
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -3.41%E -1.45%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.57%E -1.77%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 11:25
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -3.41%E -1.45%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -8.57%E -2.81%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-02 12:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.57%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.54%EV -3.11%E -0.929%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.88%EV -4.08%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-30 18:00
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.40%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -4.08%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 18:00
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.08%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -4.08%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:05
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.07%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.47%E -2.38%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -10.07%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -4.08%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:00
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.56%E -1.38%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -4.08%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-31 11:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.07%E -2.28%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 18:00
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.00%E -1.85%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.07%E -2.28%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 18:00
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.97%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -8.57%E -2.81%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 18:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.58%E -4.35%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -8.90%E -2.82%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -5.57%E -1.77%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 18:05
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.58%E -4.35%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -7.07%E -2.28%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 11:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.74%EV -10.40%E -4.77%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.83%EV -8.57%E -2.81%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 17:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -13.69%E -6.52%K -12.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -7.45%E -2.33%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -10.07%E -3.36%K -5.04%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-30 18:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.26%EV -13.69%E -6.52%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.37%EV -14.68%E -4.98%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.37%EV -11.57%E -3.92%K -5.93%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-30 18:00
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 38.84%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.58%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.58%16.0%2026-09-04 09:25
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 38.02%2.27I 44.05%NM 30.99%2.27I 44.05%NM 30.99%42.2%2026-08-30 18:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 44.65%1.71I 58.48%NM 27.68%1.71I 58.48%NM 27.68%111.3%2026-09-01 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 44.65%1.71I 58.48%NM 27.68%1.71I 58.48%NM 27.68%111.3%2026-09-01 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 44.65%1.71I 58.48%NM 27.68%1.71I 58.48%NM 27.68%111.3%2026-09-01 14:55