The School of Odds
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Sevilla v Barcelona

2026-09-19 19:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sevilla (Local)

Prediction 9.77%10.24fair odd
EV +14.26%
Edge +1.22%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.190%

assuming max odds 11.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.39%9.93%9.76%11.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.759.579.5011.7012.90%10.45%10.53%8.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barcelona (Visit)

Prediction 73.89%1.35fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -10.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.10%73.74%73.91%75.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.281.3181.97%78.48%78.13%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.35%6.12fair odd
EV +1.35%
Edge +0.218%
Kelly +0.260%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 6.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.20%16.33%16.32%18.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.685.756.2020.00%17.62%17.39%16.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sevilla (Local): 9.77%; Barcelona (Visit): 73.89%; Draw: 16.35%. For Sevilla (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.24. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 11.70, producing a positive expected value of +14.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯11.70I 8.55%NM 8.39%EV +14.26%E +1.22%K +1.33%G +0.190%1.31I 76.34%NM 74.94%EV -3.21%E -2.45%K -10.35%G +0.000%5.89I 16.98%NM 16.67%EV -3.72%E -0.631%K -0.760%G +0.000%1.9%2026-09-13 18:05
betfred_uk🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.60%EV -2.35%E -0.235%K -0.261%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.68%E -3.63%K -16.15%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.00%EV -1.92%E -0.320%K -0.384%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-13 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.55%EV -2.35%E -0.235%K -0.261%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.00%EV -4.68%E -3.63%K -16.15%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.46%EV -5.19%E -0.895%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 19:50
Codere (IT)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.54%EV -2.35%E -0.235%K -0.261%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -5.42%E -4.24%K -19.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.90%EV -1.92%E -0.320%K -0.384%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-13 18:00
Betr (AU)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -2.35%E -0.235%K -0.261%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.82%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.81%EV -1.92%E -0.320%K -0.384%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 19:05
Tipico (DE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -2.35%E -0.235%K -0.261%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.38%EV -7.64%E -6.11%K -30.56%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.20%EV +1.35%E +0.218%K +0.260%G +0.004%6.1%2026-09-13 17:05
DraftKings🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -2.35%E -0.235%K -0.261%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.82%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -6.01%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 19:20
William Hill🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -2.35%E -0.235%K -0.261%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -4.68%E -3.63%K -16.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -18.27%E -3.65%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 17:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV -2.35%E -0.235%K -0.261%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -4.68%E -3.63%K -16.15%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -18.27%E -3.65%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 17:55
Pinnacle🎯9.84I 10.16%NM 9.56%EV -3.91%E -0.397%K -0.442%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.10%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.82%G +0.000%5.76I 17.36%NM 16.34%EV -5.84%E -1.01%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 18:06
BetMGM🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 9.75%EV -4.79%E -0.491%K -0.547%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.71%EV -4.68%E -3.63%K -16.15%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV -6.01%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 17:55
Betsson🎯9.70I 10.31%NM 9.70%EV -5.28%E -0.544%K -0.606%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.38%EV -3.95%E -3.04%K -13.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -14.18%E -2.70%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 17:55
NordicBet🎯9.70I 10.31%NM 9.70%EV -5.28%E -0.544%K -0.606%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.38%EV -3.95%E -3.04%K -13.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -14.18%E -2.70%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 17:55
Fanatics🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.98%EV -7.23%E -0.761%K -0.850%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.52%EV -4.68%E -3.63%K -16.15%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -6.01%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 18:50
Coral🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -7.23%E -0.761%K -0.850%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.67%EV -5.42%E -4.24%K -19.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -6.01%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.93%EV -7.23%E -0.761%K -0.850%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.67%EV -5.42%E -4.24%K -19.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.40%EV -6.01%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -7.23%E -0.761%K -0.850%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.83%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.82%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -6.01%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 18:50
Unibet (UK)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -7.23%E -0.761%K -0.850%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.83%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.82%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -6.01%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 18:00
Bet Right🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -7.23%E -0.761%K -0.850%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -7.64%E -6.11%K -30.56%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -1.92%E -0.320%K -0.384%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 18:31
Unibet (FR)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.65%EV -7.23%E -0.761%K -0.850%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.97%EV -8.38%E -6.76%K -34.91%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -8.46%E -1.51%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 19:16
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯9.25I 10.81%NM 10.12%EV -9.67%E -1.05%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.16%EV -5.42%E -4.24%K -19.37%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.72%EV -8.46%E -1.51%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:55
Neds🎯9.25I 10.81%NM 10.12%EV -9.67%E -1.05%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.16%EV -5.42%E -4.24%K -19.37%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.72%EV -8.46%E -1.51%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:55
theScore Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -12.11%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.42%EV -6.16%E -4.85%K -22.82%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.22%EV -6.01%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 18:00
PlayUp🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -12.11%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.15%EV -5.42%E -4.24%K -19.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.59%EV -14.18%E -2.70%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 18:00
LeoVegas🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -12.11%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -7.64%E -6.11%K -30.56%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.09%E -1.84%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -16.99%E -2.00%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.59%EV -7.64%E -6.11%K -30.56%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.59%EV -3.55%E -0.602%K -0.725%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 17:55
Betway🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -16.99%E -2.00%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -7.64%E -6.11%K -30.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -6.01%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 11.38%EV -24.32%E -3.14%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.29%EV -9.86%E -8.08%K -44.80%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.33%EV -11.73%E -2.17%K -2.67%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-13 19:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎11.11I 9.00%NM 8.76%1.27I 78.74%NM 76.65%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.59%2.7%2026-09-13 19:40
Smarkets◎8.40I 11.90%NM 10.49%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.23%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.28%13.5%2026-09-13 17:55