Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.65
assuming max odds 2.80
assuming max odds 3.70
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Sociedad (Local): 36.99%; Real Betis (Visit): 35.69%; Draw: 27.31%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.06%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.76%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.70%EV -1.84%E -0.669%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.54%EV +1.06%E +0.286%K +0.391%G +0.004% | 1.9% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.22%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.44%EV -1.84%E -0.669%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.34%EV +1.06%E +0.286%K +0.391%G +0.004% | 2.6% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.22%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.44%EV -1.84%E -0.669%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.34%EV +1.06%E +0.286%K +0.391%G +0.004% | 2.6% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.22%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.44%EV -1.84%E -0.669%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.34%EV +1.06%E +0.286%K +0.391%G +0.004% | 2.6% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.16%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.34%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -1.67%E -0.465%K -0.644%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 18:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.35%EV -8.26%E -3.33%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -1.67%E -0.465%K -0.644%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.35%EV -8.26%E -3.33%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -1.67%E -0.465%K -0.644%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.35%EV -8.26%E -3.33%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -1.67%E -0.465%K -0.644%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.35%EV -8.26%E -3.33%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -1.67%E -0.465%K -0.644%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -1.67%E -0.465%K -0.644%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.57%EV -1.97%E -0.743%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.29%EV -4.69%E -1.76%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.14%EV -2.49%E -0.699%K -0.970%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -1.97%E -0.743%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -1.97%E -0.743%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-09 18:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -1.97%E -0.743%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-09 18:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.34%EV -10.11%E -4.16%K -7.07%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.42%EV -6.12%E -2.33%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.58%EV -1.97%E -0.743%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 36.04%EV -3.98%E -1.48%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.38%EV -3.31%E -0.936%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.90%EV -2.34%E -0.886%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.42%EV -1.84%E -0.669%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 27.68%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.27%EV -1.97%E -0.743%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.27%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.41%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-09 18:48 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 18:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -6.48%E -2.47%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 18:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-09 18:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -8.98%E -3.52%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -11.22%E -4.67%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -11.22%E -4.67%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -11.22%E -4.67%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -14.33%E -5.97%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.28%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.62%EV -0.055%E -0.020%K -0.030%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -3.08%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -6.48%E -2.47%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.64%EV -6.78%E -2.69%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.87%EV -2.91%E -1.07%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 18:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.32%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.32%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.60%EV -4.56%E -1.77%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.04%EV -6.48%E -2.47%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.67%EV -8.26%E -3.33%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.06%EV -2.71%E -1.03%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.06%EV -6.12%E -2.33%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.89%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 18:53 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.48%E -2.47%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.48%E -2.47%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -8.98%E -3.52%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -8.50%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.93%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -8.50%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -1.84%E -0.669%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -9.87%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.87%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-09 18:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 36.70%EV -14.92%E -6.49%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 35.17%EV -14.33%E -5.97%K -10.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.13%EV -18.06%E -6.02%K -9.03%G +0.000% | 18.5% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.62% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06% | 0.4% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.62% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06% | 0.4% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.62% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06% | 0.4% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.53% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 0.6% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.38% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.34% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27% | 1.1% | 2026-05-09 18:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44% | 2.1% | 2026-05-09 18:54 |