La escuela de los momios

Real Sociedad v Real Betis

Inicio: 2026-05-09 19:00 UTC

Final: Real Sociedad 2–2 Real Betis

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Real Sociedad (Local)

Predicción 36.99%2.70momio equitativo
EV -1.97%
Ventaja -0.743%
Kelly -1.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.06%37.02%37.04%38.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.302.522.502.6543.48%39.66%40.00%37.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Real Betis (Visitante)

Predicción 35.69%2.80momio equitativo
EV -0.055%
Ventaja -0.020%
Kelly -0.030%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.34%35.73%35.58%37.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.662.652.8041.67%37.66%37.74%35.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.31%3.66momio equitativo
EV +1.06%
Ventaja +0.286%
Kelly +0.391%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.92%27.25%27.38%28.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.493.503.7033.33%28.65%28.57%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 37.76%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.70%EV -1.84%E -0.669%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.54%EV +1.06%E +0.286%K +0.391%G +0.004%1.9%2026-05-09 18:55
Unibet (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 38.22%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.44%EV -1.84%E -0.669%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.34%EV +1.06%E +0.286%K +0.391%G +0.004%2.6%2026-05-09 18:55
Unibet (NL)2.55I 39.22%NM 38.22%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.44%EV -1.84%E -0.669%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.34%EV +1.06%E +0.286%K +0.391%G +0.004%2.6%2026-05-09 18:55
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 38.22%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.44%EV -1.84%E -0.669%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.34%EV +1.06%E +0.286%K +0.391%G +0.004%2.6%2026-05-09 18:55
theScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.16%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.34%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -1.67%E -0.465%K -0.644%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 18:49
Casumo2.48I 40.32%NM 38.35%EV -8.26%E -3.33%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -1.67%E -0.465%K -0.644%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 18:55
Grosvenor2.48I 40.32%NM 38.35%EV -8.26%E -3.33%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -1.67%E -0.465%K -0.644%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 18:55
betPARX2.48I 40.32%NM 38.35%EV -8.26%E -3.33%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -1.67%E -0.465%K -0.644%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 18:54
Bally Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 38.35%EV -8.26%E -3.33%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -1.67%E -0.465%K -0.644%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 18:54
Bet Victor2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -1.67%E -0.465%K -0.644%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 18:54
1xBet2.65I 37.74%NM 36.57%EV -1.97%E -0.743%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 36.29%EV -4.69%E -1.76%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.14%EV -2.49%E -0.699%K -0.970%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-09 18:50
BetOnline.ag2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -1.97%E -0.743%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-09 18:50
LowVig.ag2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -1.97%E -0.743%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-09 18:45
BetUS2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -1.97%E -0.743%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.41%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.18%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-09 18:44
LeoVegas (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 18:55
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 18:55
TABtouch2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 18:55
PMU (FR)2.43I 41.15%NM 38.34%EV -10.11%E -4.16%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.42%EV -6.12%E -2.33%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.24%EV -3.04%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 18:55
Marathon Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 36.58%EV -1.97%E -0.743%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 36.04%EV -3.98%E -1.48%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.38%EV -3.31%E -0.936%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-09 18:55
Pinnacle2.64I 37.88%NM 36.90%EV -2.34%E -0.886%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.42%EV -1.84%E -0.669%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.68%EV -3.86%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-09 18:50
DraftKings2.65I 37.74%NM 36.27%EV -1.97%E -0.743%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.27%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-09 18:55
Codere (IT)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.41%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.33%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.26%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-09 18:55
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 18:50
BetMGM2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-09 18:48
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 18:49
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 18:50
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -6.48%E -2.47%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 18:50
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 18:49
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 18:49
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -8.98%E -3.52%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-09 18:55
LiveScore Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -11.22%E -4.67%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 18:55
LeoVegas2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -11.22%E -4.67%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 18:55
Virgin Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -11.22%E -4.67%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 18:55
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -14.33%E -5.97%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 18:54
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 37.28%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.62%EV -0.055%E -0.020%K -0.030%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.10%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-09 18:54
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -3.08%E -1.18%K -1.90%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -6.48%E -2.47%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 18:55
NordicBet2.52I 39.68%NM 37.64%EV -6.78%E -2.69%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.87%EV -2.91%E -1.07%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.49%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 18:44
Everygame2.60I 38.46%NM 36.32%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.32%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 18:54
Betclic (FR)2.58I 38.76%NM 36.60%EV -4.56%E -1.77%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.04%EV -6.48%E -2.47%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 18:55
Unibet (UK)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 18:54
BetRivers2.48I 40.32%NM 37.67%EV -8.26%E -3.33%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -5.77%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-09 18:54
Bovada2.63I 38.02%NM 36.06%EV -2.71%E -1.03%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.06%EV -6.12%E -2.33%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.89%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-09 18:53
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 18:50
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 18:50
Betway2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 18:54
TAB2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -3.82%E -1.47%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 18:50
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 18:50
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.48%E -2.47%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 18:50
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.18%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -6.48%E -2.47%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 18:50
Unibet (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -9.37%E -3.82%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.41%E -2.04%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.14%E -2.10%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 18:54
PlayUp2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -8.98%E -3.52%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -8.50%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 18:55
NetBet (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.93%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -7.19%E -2.77%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -8.50%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 18:55
Tipico (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -5.67%E -2.22%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -1.84%E -0.669%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -9.87%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-09 18:50
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -7.52%E -3.01%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -3.62%E -1.34%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.87%E -2.99%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 18:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 36.70%EV -14.92%E -6.49%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.17%EV -14.33%E -5.97%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.13%EV -18.06%E -6.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%18.5%2026-05-09 18:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.62%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-05-09 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.62%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-05-09 18:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.72I 36.76%NM 36.62%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.32%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.06%0.4%2026-05-09 18:55
Matchbook2.72I 36.76%NM 36.53%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-05-09 18:55
Smarkets2.72I 36.76%NM 36.38%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27%1.1%2026-05-09 18:55
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-05-09 18:54